Kamala is going to win.

[DemocracyWorks]

I never felt more confident than I am now. Ann Selzer poll has Kamala +3 in red Iowa is a shock across this election.

[Gaytano70]

1. Agree 100%

[Butterflylady]

2. I have said that from the beginning

When I said the Supreme Court just gave us the win in this election. When they ruled that abortion was overturned.

[Johnny2X2X]

3. She won't win Iowa

But that poll is a sign of her late surge. She is winning late deciders by a large margin.

[MannyS]

9. Obama won Iowa twice

Have some faith!

[Johnny2X2X]

10. Would be amazing.

It I think the bigger picture is this is a sign she is finishing strong and Trump is floundering. This predicts a landslide.

[paleotn]

13. Dems have out performed their polling in recent cycles.

And dipshit has done everything he could to f himself the last 2 weeks. Going to be really interesting.

[Omnipresent]

28. Trump will win the second prize...

Prison!

[iluvtennis]

11. Thanks for that info. Welcome to DU @MannyS.

[calimary]

19. Welcome to DU, MannyS!

Hey, it's certainly worth keeping in mind, while we're all keeping our fingers crossed!

[rubbersole]

23. 👍!

[lees1975]

40. The poll reflects all Iowa voters, not just the late deciders.

A three point lead in that poll three days before the election is a pretty sure thing.

[Jack Valentino]

42. I think Iowa is credibly in doubt now----

and before Trump, Democratic candidates were very successful there---
https://democraticunderground.com/100219645094

[MadameButterfly]

45. Hey, either the poll is good or it isn't

If it's good, she wins Iowa. And if she wins Iowa, she wins.

[mchill]

47. The last thing this poll is about is winning Iowa imho

Trump could still win Iowa (still very close). This poll is indicative of a new electorate, mostly women (based on the pollster’s words) coming out to vote Harris. This is likely due to the strict abortion laws instituted in Iowa last summer. The consequences of these laws are sinking in. Think Texas, Florida, or anywhere else a futuristic electorate, as she called it, might not being polled properly. If these pollsters are using a sample based on would be Trump voters or would be Kamala voters of 2016 and 2020, it only exaggerates what took place in the past (either direction). I assume she means new likely voters and mostly women are not being sampled properly in 2024 by other pollsters. The Emerson poll in Iowa has Trump +10 as an example. (I also was just reading a Nate Silver article that so many polls falling so closely together is beyond the odds, and Emerson Poll is near the top in what he calls “herding”— the tendency of some polling firms to move with the flock by file-drawering (not publishing) results that don’t match the consensus or torturing their turnout models. ) Selzer is consistently ranked as an A+ pollster by FiveThirtyEight. She also mentioned the shock factor of seeing this result and resisting the inclination not to trust and sticking with the methodology (highly paraphrased).

[Freethinker65]

4. Do not depend on polls. Voters must vote as if Harris/Walz need every vote.

[Elessar Zappa]

5. Yes, of course.

But good news is welcome.

[MadameButterfly]

46. If anyone stays home over the polls they are nuts but

the rest of us need some peace of mind as we approach results that will spell hope or armageddon.

[RSH]

6. It's going to be

A BLOW OUT LANDSLIDE!!!

[William Seger]

7. Kamala has regained the lead in the betting markets, too

They went nutty for a while when DonOld starting recovering in the polls, but I expect that a LOT of people are getting a whiff of what's about to happen!

[Dave Bowman]

22. "DonOld"

I really like that nickname. The other day someone came up with Pedonnie, that totally cracked me up.

[William Seger]

24. Probably should be "The DonOld"

I don't remember now who it was, but someone suggested that name because of the way he pronounces KaMala. My new favorite nickname, courtesy of Jimmy Kimmel, is Martin Luther Burger King.

[Dave Bowman]

26. Lol!

[Jack Valentino]

43. I have been doing my best to cite "DonOLD" for a long while...

since Joe withdrew from the race mostly over doubts about his age,
it seems only fair to point out who is the oldest candidate ever going into a general election

[oldmanlynn]

8. If you look at the early voting data that's coming out of the different states

The fact that Democrats were doing very well in Iowa was abundantly clear so this was something that we saw several days ago

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-elections/iowa-results

[Jack Valentino]

44. Thanks for posting this link to Iowa early voting!--- other than the Register poll,

I had seen no 'hard info' about Iowa---

the Democratic and Republican early voting there are nearly even,
but Kamala ought to be winning the independents,
especially with more youthful voters avoiding registering by party---

I think this "surprise" is all answered by the Dobbs decision!!!!

I think we can win there!
https://democraticunderground.com/100219645094

[Jmb 4 Harris-Walz]

12. Ok, so this is a highly respected poll in Iowa, that I get. Does this Ann Selzer have polls for other states?

Last edited Sat Nov 2, 2024, 09:59 PM - Edit history (1)

I can only find results for Iowa. Why poll for only one state?

[Jmb 4 Harris-Walz]

14. Harris 47; Trump 44; Kennedy 3. 🤣

Last edited Sat Nov 2, 2024, 10:00 PM - Edit history (1)

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2024/11/02/iowa-poll-kamala-harris-leads-donald-trump-2024-presidential-race/75354033007/

Kennedy is going to hurt TFG badly 😂

[Deminpenn]

18. She only does Iowa

There are state specific pollsters. In PA, Franklin and Marshall College and Muhlenberg College only poll the state. These are the best pollsters because they know their state the best, how to poll it and how to interpret the results.

[Jmb 4 Harris-Walz]

35. Thank you!

[Volaris]

41. Because she runs the poll for the Des Moines Register, and Iowa is all she does.

[lastlib]

15. Maybe dominos are gonna start falling......

Cross fingers...

[James48]

16. Never never never let up

Keep going. Talk to others. Drive someone to the polls.

It’s not over until the Electoral Ballits are counted and registered in Congress.


I would love nothing more than a big blue wave blowout- but there is no data that suggests we can let up.

[notroot]

17. I hope so and believe so, too.

But I won't be satisfied until Inauguration Day.

[Joinfortmill]

20. Yup, it's the vote counting and certification we need to worry about.

[DinahMoeHum]

21. Keep. On. Pushing. Ramming Speed.

then brace yourselves for the next 76 days, because Trump will NOT concede no matter what.
Cut him off at every turn.

[kimbutgar]

25. I bet donOLD is having his team plan a trip tomorrow to Iowa for a rally ASAP

[LilElf70]

27. My gut feeling hasn't changed since she came on the scene.

Kamala!!!! Bigly win. Not to mention the the con man has made his point of view less attractive on a daily basis.

As far as I'm concerned, it's over. Has been for months.

I give Joe Biden full credit for saving our democracy, AGAIN!!!!!

[COL Mustard]

29. Kamala really represents

Morning in America. The real one, not the faux one from 40 years ago.

[Groundhawg]

30. I hope so.

[mchill]

31. Based on the interview with Selzer

She suggested that some of the other pollsters in Iowa and other states are using an electorate similar to 2016 and 2020. In her pool, they discovered since September they had to add new respondents because there were definitely new voters and the new voters all went to Harris. She suggested that was a reaction to the restrictive abortion law that came into effect this last summer and Iowa’s are starting to see the consequence. She said women over 65 were voting three to one for Harris. I think this bodes very well for other swing states that have archaic abortion laws. Texas comes to my mind first. It’s already very close. Florida perhaps. And what’s going on in Georgia with abortion laws? (Assuming those pollsters haven’t adjusted their sample based on a future electorate rather than a past electorate.)

[Deminpenn]

38. I've heard from a couple different, unrelated people

who have spoken to or had conversations with people in my western PA county, that there are "quiet" Harris voters here. The LV models might not be capturing them.

[bdamomma]

32. Welcome to DU!!!

We need a landsllde, to bury him good. But he is shoveling to his base, that he is ahead in the polls, and that he is winning. The next 76 days will be hell in the country until Jan. 20th.

If you want to hear what Steven Schmidt ? ( I'm not quite sure) said on MSNBC, listen to Randi Rhodes Podcast from 31st October, which is posted on Liberal You Tubers at 1:00:39.

[Askov_Finlyson]

33. Vote!

Pedal to the metal. Pile on. Run up the score. No should sleep on this. Vote, just vote.

[Dem4life1234]

34. I remember when Obama won Iowa

That was amazing!

[ThePartyThatListens]

36. Yes. She. Is.

[Rocknation]

37. The latest twists in the corporate media narrative give me reason to be confident

Last edited Mon Nov 4, 2024, 05:46 PM - Edit history (5)

that Kamala has already won.

Why? Because of: The LA Times and USA Today refusing to endorse either candidate. The New York Times and the gaggle of celebrities not endorsing Kamala until this late date. Trump ratcheting up his cognitive decline as if he's hoping that losing the election would help him win a legal ruling of being too incompetent to stand trial or be sentenced on his upcoming court cases. "Shock! Bombshell!" reports of how Florida, Texas, North Carolina, and even Kansas might be turning purple. And now this "hysteria" over the Ann Selzer Iowa poll -- if she's among the most highly respected of pollsters, how come the public has never heard of her before?

I think it's all the result of being unable to endorse DuhDon without coming out of it looking like an even bigger loser than he is (or a possible accomplice to his crimes); or wanting to appear to have been on Kamala's side "all along" once she wins.


Rocknation

[Texasgal]

39. Agreed.

I felt a bit worried for a while, but as things have started moving closer, it's clear. She WILL win.

[Emile]

48. Remember on Wednesday when you encounter an upset MAGAT, tell them

you voted with the MAJORITY.