:🚨 Harris takes 3 pt lead over Trump in IOWA in Des Moines Register poll

[BannonsLiver]

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2024/11/02/iowa-poll-kamala-harris-leads-donald-trump-2024-presidential-race/75354033007/

[Fiendish Thingy]

1. Edit: If she wins IA, she only needs 2 rust belt states and NC or GA to get to 270. Nt

[BannonsLiver]

2. Exactly.

And even if she doesn’t win it the fact she’s competitive there is a bad omen for Dump in my view.

[Blaukraut]

3. If she wins Iowa, she likely wins all of MI, WI, and PA anyway n/t

[Fiendish Thingy]

6. Indeed, but IA also permits her to lose one of the three, even PA

She has so many paths to 270, and Trump has about 1.5, all requiring PA and IA.

[NoRethugFriends]

9. Seriously? If she wins Iowa, then she has won PA by a ton. These things are not independent events

[Tribetime]

12. All the swing States and Florida and Texas

[Fiendish Thingy]

21. I know, but stranger things have happened. Nt

[chicoescuela]

20. I believe that as well. It would be adios tsf

[NoRethugFriends]

4. If she actually is winning in Iowa, then it is a total national rout.

[Prairie Gates]

11. Agreed...if she actually wins Iowa, she wins a lot of unexpected states

[gay texan]

5. This would be epic n/t

[Pdz]

7. Interesting

They have a pretty good track record in Iowa. If they are right, Harris will outperform most polls by a health margin.

[Coexist]

8. I just can't believe how long my happy dance would be if that happened

[SharonClark]

10. Thanks for the link.

Evidently older women and independent women are breaking for Harris. Trump still gets an overwhelming number of evangelicals, rural, towns, and men.
Harris leads with women, city folk, and suburbanites.

The lead is within the margin of error, but what a comeback for the Democrats.

[Dalimama]

16. Possibly correct

My husband and I were just discussing Iowa earlier and I thought the farmers there could make a difference because they KNOW the harm those tariffs can cause. Plus, women are voting early there by 10 pts more as well.

[BannonsLiver]

17. I think the fact she is even competitive there is an alarm bell for the Trump camp.

[crud]

13. When Obama won the Iowa primary

he was on tv giving acceptance speech and I turned to my wife and said Obama just won Iowa, she replied, all those old white people voted for him? yeah agree with others if Iowa is called for Harris, the election is a rout and we will already know it.

[Tribetime]

14. Thats 11 points better than Biden who won by 4.5% overall

[crimycarny]

15. Trump's tariffs devastated American farmers

Back in 2018-2019, farmers were devasted by Trump's tariffs. $27 billion lost between 2018 and 2019, so bad that farmers had to be bailed out by Congress.

I'm wondering if those Iowa farmers are adding to support for Harris (on top of women moving towards Harris)?

Edited to add the suicides among farmers increased dramatically during the Trump tariff disaster. Suicide rates amongst farmers are higher than the normal population, but the devastation from tariffs made this even worse.

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/farm-suicides-rural-trump-trade-war-national-farmers-union_n_5d74a976e4b07521022dcd0c

[stopdiggin]

18. Have to say did NOT see that coming .... -(nt)-

[MiKenMi33]

19. This is encouraging!

This eases some of my stress. I’m hoping for a landslide.

[NickB79]

22. Obama won in Iowa as well

It's not unprecedented.

[BannonsLiver]

23. He did indeed but it's been less than competitive the last 2 cycles.

[Johnny2X2X]

24. She is surging.

And this is amazing heading into election. Day because she has banked big leads with early and mail in voting.

[BannonsLiver]

25. It's happening

The fact that Iowa is competitive is a thunder clap in a noisy election season and one that is likely sending shockwaves throughout the chattering class as we speak.

[Strelnikov_]

28. Yes it is.

[riversedge]

26. The poll shows that women -- particularly those who are older or are politically independent -- are driving the late shift

Iowa Poll: Kamala Harris leapfrogs Donald Trump to take lead near Election Day. Here's how

The nationally recognized Iowa Poll shows Kamala Harris picking up support from women to surpass Donald Trump in a ruby-red state he has won twice

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2024/11/02/iowa-poll-kamala-harris-leads-donald-trump-2024-presidential-race/75354033007/

Portrait of Brianne Pfannenstiel Brianne Pfannenstiel
Des Moines Register

Democrat Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump in Iowa 47% to 44%, a new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows.
A victory for Harris would be a shocking development after Iowa has swung aggressively to the right in recent elections, delivering Trump solid victories in 2016 and 2020.
The poll shows that women — particularly those who are older or are politically independent — are driving the late shift toward Harris.
Trump continues to lead with his core base of support: men, evangelicals, rural residents and those without a college degree.

© Copyright 2024, Des Moines Register and Tribune Co.

Kamala Harris now leads Donald Trump in Iowa — a startling reversal for Democrats and Republicans who have all but written off the state’s presidential contest as a certain Trump victory.

A new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows Vice President Harris leading former President Trump 47% to 44% among likely voters just days before a high-stakes election that appears deadlocked in key battleground states. ............

[Strelnikov_]

27. Curious about down ballot races

Last poll I saw had 2 of the 4 Congress seats competitive, with the R leading in these two similar to the Orange One (4%). With the 7% swing to Harris in the current poll for POTUS . .