"A sign of a huge win" for Kamala. The ground game in PA.

[speak easy]

Taylor Stakes
@taylorstakes

How good is @KamalaHarris and @KamalaforPA’s late game ground game in Pennsylvania? My perspective as a Lehigh County voter:

We’ve had canvassers here multiple times this week from Kamala’s team (talk to two amazing
@Columbia students today), making sure my wife is voting and has a plan (she does). I mailed in my vote last week and it’s already been cast, I confirmed their data tells them exactly that (means their data is good). Neither of us have any registered party affiliation since we moved from Texas recently.

What’s wild?

Not a single Trump canvasser at all. Ever. Not a single one. Trump’s team has access to the same data, which means someone from Trump’s GOTV should have knocked our door. Ground games win elections and the fact that I’m anecdotally seeing a robust ground game is not only encouraging, I think it’s a sign of a huge win for the Vice President. #PennsylvaniaVotes #PAVotes #PAVote

Link to tweet

[Emile]

1. I look for a landslide victory for Harris.

[OLDMDDEM]

2. I agree with you.

[getagrip_already]

3. Every data point is positive.....

Not talking hunches or tea leaves, although they are positive also, but real data from early voting and what exit polling, focus groups, and door knock stats is very positive for us.

Im sleeping well at night.

As you said, our ground game is excellent. Millions of door knocks are going on by volunteers committed to electing our team. The gop is bussing in unemployed workers who could give a crap about their candidate and are just racing from door to door.

And tsf is falling to pieces. It is obvious to even his most ardent supporters. They are being emotionally punched down to the point where a lot of them just wont bother voting. Heck, the data is showing a large portion of republicans are voting for harris in pre-election voting if all the exit polls are to be believed.

But our people still need to vote. Im pulling my hair out trying to get dems in mass to vote. There are still some who dont think they are needed. ARGGGHHH!!!!!

[RobinA]

22. There Is No

early voting in PA, so early voting and exit polling in this state have nothing to say so far. Actual polling has it as a dead heat. Anybody who is counting chickens in PA at this point may well end up with egg on their faces. Believe what you need to, but I'm not sleeping easy in PA.

[getagrip_already]

27. I beg your pardon?

Im not from PA, but...

Yes, Pennsylvania does offer early voting, which in Pennsylvania is called in-person mail ballot voting.
You can choose whether to vote on Election Day or during the in-person mail ballot voting period, whichever is easier for you. This can be especially helpful if it would be difficult or not possible for you to vote on Election Day. Voting early at your local election office or other designated location may be less crowded, as well.

10/29 was the last day to vote this way but it was available.

Also, canvassers are knocking on hundreds of thousands of doors.

They are talking to undecided and reticent dems. They take notes and roll those up to team leaders.

Thats some of the internal polling we hear about telling us undecided voters are breaking hard for harris.

So yeah, there is data.

[WarGamer]

33. I was recently reviewing actual data...

In 2024, PA voters requested a million fewer ballots by mail compared to 20.

DEMS are running -800k in returned ballots in 24 vs 20 while REPS have nearly matched their 20 return total.

The "cushion" for DEMS today is 400k ballots while it was 1.1M in 24.

To be "confident" about PA right now is nuts.

So many variables... what will election day voting look like?

[getagrip_already]

35. 2020 was covid...

We arent under a pandemic right now. There is no need to worry about lower early voting numbers.

It is normal and expected. 2020 was abnormal.

And which is it? There is or isnt early voting in PA?

Sheesh. I guess you are gonna ignore the 20-30 point lead harris is showing in exit polling data among early voting? That can only mean repugs and indies are crossing over.

[WarGamer]

37. Of course, agreed.

But GOP numbers are just as strong as 20.

So... best case scenario for us... GOP is shooting their load early and DEMS will vote in higher numbers than they have historically to win the day.

I'm not going to rest for about... 64 hrs.

[WarGamer]

39. here's my other post with links and specific numbers

https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=19645512

[DontBelieveEastisEas]

65. Is there data on female to male ratio of the early PA vote?

[Blue_Roses]

75. PA does have early voting

like you explained. The Election Committee Chair from PA was on Anderson Cooper tonight explaining just the way your article did.

[RobinA]

48. You Can Turn In

a mail ballot early, but nothing can be counted, or even looked at, until Election Day. If there’s real data now on how people are actually voting in PA it’s fraudulent.

[LAS14]

63. Can't people be asked by a pollster if they voted early and how? Or...

... isn't the data about who has voted early available? Then a pollster can call and ask how they voted?

[RobinA]

70. That's Not

what I would call data in a race this close.

[bearsfootball516]

4. Kamala has the best ground game since Obama 08. Trump literally has none.

And it may prove to be the difference.

I read an article in The Atlantic yesterday that said he's got virtually no ground game, because he doesn't have the money to invest in one, because all of that campaign money is tied up in legal fees.

[getagrip_already]

7. Musk is running his ground ops....

And that is going about as well as youd expect.

He is using a new app, designed by him, to direct door knockers on their routes and track/audit their progress. It works like crap.

One issue is it requires a very fast cell connection or it goes offline. Most non urban areas dont meet the specs. So the paid agents game the system and force the phones offline, then dont cov r r the routes at all but still get paid. Or, they simply race from door to door without talking to anyone for any meaningful length of time.

They are paid by the door. Not the quality of the contact.

Our canvssers are volunteers well versed on the candidates, both nationsl and local, and will take the time to talk to people about their concerns. Since they arent paid by the number of stops they make, spending 10 minutes chatting isnt a burden.

[Joinfortmill]

29. Rofl

[moonscape]

30. And I read here somewhere that

Musk canvassers were saying things like they didn’t care how they voted, they themselves were voting for Harris.

He recruited door-knockers, made them sign NDAs, then told them what they’d be doing, according to reports I read at least. Mind-boggling.

[CrispyQ]

52. My husband said he'd knock on every door & ask for directions. -nt

[Blasphemer]

77. That might explain my recent experience...

I am a registered Democrat. I put up a Harris/Walz sign on the lawn and an “I voted early” sticker with a Kamala poster on my door. A Trump canvasser came by and left a door tag. It was a complete waste of time for them and they should have known that.

[Johnny2X2X]

5. Here in MI

They stopped by. And I voted early before my wife did and they knew about that. Sent a card that said so. After she voted, no more contact.

That’s being plugged into the system and getting real time data. They know we voted so they’re not wasting another visit here. They can hit the Dems who haven’t voted. This is what a together ground game looks like.

Of course the emails and texts to donate are more than ever though.

[SallyHemmings]

6. Chester County reporting

4 campaigns affiliated with the Harris campaign-0 from the other guy's have stopped by my place in the last two weeks.

[Jarqui]

8. I did some searches on twitter

"Pennsylvania canvassing"
"Michigan canvassing"
"Wisconsin canvassing"

Or a general one on "canvassing"
https://x.com/search?q=canvassing&src=typed_query

Nearly all the tweets as I scrolled through them were for Harris/blue canvassing.

There was one Republican canvassing tweet in a red district in Wisconsin.

I did not scroll through them for hours - just 10 minutes or so. But it was nearly all blue/Harris

There were some ugly tweets about Elon Musk trying to fly canvassers in or carting them around in u-hauls without seats and them having problems getting a place to stay or getting paid unless they made quota.

Link to tweet

Link to tweet

https://x.com/search?q=Elon%20Musk%20canvassing&src=typed_query&f=top

It is so one sided, it is almost bizarre ... doesn't make sense.

[paleotn]

24. Elmo's canvassers? I doubt they're terribly motivated.

Just mark the forms and get paid. Don't have to knock on a single door. Just look like you are. These people don't understand campaigning even on a fundamental level.

[Jarqui]

42. I have read some reports of that. They're filing bogus info to get paid.

Some of them get there before they're told it is for Trump which they didn't feel like they signed up for.

I was reading an interview with Jon Ralston of NV. He's another of many who commented that it takes years/several elections to build a good GOTV operation. What Musk is trying seems pretty crazy/unreliable.

Though I'm still stuck at "how could this election ever be close?"

[kevink077]

53. Conning the con man

Funny stuff

[paleotn]

54. I think it's not as close as we've been led to believe.

A lot of folks are invested in it being close for various reasons. Some just fear the wrath of Trump and the magats.

[Jarqui]

55. Decades ago, my sister registered as a Republican ...

she's never voted for a Republican candidate for President.
In 2016, Trump and Republican party support of him motivated her to register as an Independent.

[jcgoldie]

9. but this cant be true!

Elon Musk is a billionaire genius that makes electric cars with a massive ego... how could he fuck this up?!?

[paleotn]

25. Because he started on 3rd base and has been falling forward his whole life.

Same as Trump. It's the old adage that someone has to win the lottery, but it sure as shit ain't from skill.

[Captain Zero]

32. All Musk will do is lose some cell phones

I'll bet they didn't pay for a demographics report from anyone.

Generally you canvass your known likely voters plus known independents. They are probably dropping off a few random canvassers from out of state here and there where they "think" it will help. This is when strong local party supporters help you but their locals are glued to faux or attending a rally in another state. Haha.

[Beacool]

10. I just came back last night from Reading, PA.

Outside of Reading and other small cities, Berks County is rural. It's also Trump country. At two markets (Leesport and Green Dragon), Trump gear was everywhere. I had a conversation with several older white folks. The one issue they kept bringing up was illegal immigration. They don't care to listen to facts or reason. Their dislike of these people runs too deep. I'm holding hope for PA, but I'm not sure. Trump won in 2016 thanks to 77,000 people in three states (MI, PA and WI), 45,000 of those votes were in PA.

[FakeNoose]

13. Yes there are still Chump supporters in Pennsylvania, just not enough of them

There are way fewer Chump voters now than in 2020. And Joe Biden won Pennsylvania in 2020.

The women voters are motivated this year and the independents. They are with us, along with many disaffected R voters. The message is loud and clear: We Don't Want Chump Back in the White House. Ever Again!

On top of all that - Kamala Harris is a remarkable candidate and she'll be an outstanding "Madame President!"

[BumRushDaShow]

18. "And Joe Biden won Pennsylvania in 2020."

And what the media won't point out is that although 45 won PA by ~45,000 votes in 2016, Biden won it by 81,000 votes, meaning that he picked up a total differential of 126,000 votes since that 2016 election, in order to get to that +81,000 in 2020.

[dchill]

40. "Biden won it by 81,000 votes..."

Yep. And PA has 486,000 people of Puerto Rican descent. So. It's a less complicated path to victory than it seems.

[BumRushDaShow]

44. +infinity

The Philly Inquirer had this pic from the line to the rally with Michelle Obama and Alicia Keys in Montgomery County yesterday -



I had noted back when that insult first happened - 45 "dissed" them ( "diss" = slang for "disrespect" ). I *knew* what the reaction was going to be. Am hoping it really translates into some more votes as they tend to be a lower turnout demographic.

[Beacool]

57. Here's hoping that Kamala wins PA by an even bigger margin.

[BumRushDaShow]

58. I hope so

If those Puerto Ricans come out to vote (and their precincts often only had something like a 27% turnout rate during general elections), then that will make a helluva difference!

In 2020, Philly's turnout surpassed the historic Obama turnout of 2008 (despite the nonsense article from a couple of hacks at the Philly Inquirer who never updated their article when the final tally came in), so I am hoping we blow that number away!

2020



2008



===OTHERS===

2016




2012

[Beacool]

56. I'm hoping that PA is in the bag.

It's just been such a stressful election season.

[paleotn]

23. We have them in VT too. I doubt VT will flip.

[dchill]

38. Democrats win PA in Pittsburgh, Philadelphia...

... and all the other larger urban centers. It seems to be a demographic that's growing (🤞 ).

[FakeNoose]

68. Erie usually votes blue, also Harrisburg and State College area

Fingers crossed for the Wilkes Barre-Scranton area Dems to come through for us too.
This election is going to surprise a lot of people.

[dchill]

71. I believe you're right! 👍

[askyagerz]

76. From what i can see in the data

Last cnn poll i saw trump looked to be down like over -5 from 2020 non college whites in the blue wall states. That's the biggest voting pool there is and why they have been courting minority males to make up for it.
I just don't think there's enough in that pool to make up for thay big of loss from his base.
Especially now it looks like latinos are breaking in PA over 10

[aggiesal]

11. Pendejo45 doesn't care about a ground game, he only cares about getting respectable number of votes so he can ...

take it to court claim that the election was rigged.
Elon is spending his money to create some semblance of a ground game, but that has turned into a real cluster f@#k, with the canvassers figuring out how to manipulate the GPS and still get paid without actually doing any work and creating phony registrations & fake polls.
That is Pendejo45's ground game.

[Farmer-Rick]

12. Several folks here predicted this when

Trump took away all funding and closed most of the satellite GOP offices, even in battleground states. So, Trump could redirect the money into his own pockets. It's what he does in his business practices too. Fires staff, keeps the cheapest and lowest quality, leaves maintenance until it falls apart.

In 2016, the GOP was not turned over to Trump to run. They had a ground game that was enhanced by Putin's stolen loot, trolls and propaganda pay offs.

I think he, or the idiots he hired, really thought the churches he kissed up to would do the leg work for him. The corporate media does his advertising for him, so why not get the churches to go door to door for him?

I had weird church people talking about politics come up to my farm gate in 2016. I knew these people, so it was strange for them to talk politics instead of religion and trying to convert me. But I just shrugged them off.

But none came in the last election or this one. Maybe he paid the churches in 2016 or said he would. The pastors around here really do love money.

So, he hired Musk instead. Was Musk ever good at running a business? I mean this abusive ground game with an easily rigged ap doesn't seem to work at all. I suppose some time in his life he was able to run a business. He just can't seem to do it now.

[FakeNoose]

15. All good points Farmer Rick

I think Elon Musk volunteered for the "job." As soon as Chump loses, everything will become his fault. Wait and see.

[paleotn]

28. You've got them, exactly. And Elmo has never been able to run a business.

He was simply in the right place at the right time. Someone had to be. He's not even a very good entrepreneur; guys great on ideas but notorious for not knowing how to run a going concern. He's more like a 12 year old in mom's basement, coming up with nothing really different than anyone else, just coopting other people's ideas.

[yardwork]

34. The RW church congregations got what they wanted with Dobbs.

All their pastors care about is money, but even if Musk paid the pastors, there's nothing to motivate the congregants to knock on doors. Dobbs has blown up in their faces.

[BumRushDaShow]

16. Where I live in Philly (NW) I had 1 canvasser group (I think there were 3 of them) early on

and my area has always been either 1st or 2nd in % turnout, election after election, in the entire city. In the past, they would (idiotically) blanket this area and leave the areas with the lowest turnout, with no one.

Not this time.

When I answered the door I pointed to my lawn sign that looks like this -



and they started laughing. There have been none since (and thankfully my entire life, I have never had any GOP canvassers despite this area having been, and in some cases still being, a bastion of old wealthy GOP families).

I remember when I was going to school downtown on the commuter train every day, being on the same train in the morning as one our then-GOP at-large City Council members - Thacher Longstreth, who lived up here while in office. He was from the Poppy Bush crowd, who proudly and prominently wore wild argyle socks, and would always say hi to us wild kids on the train.

They are FINALLY going where they NEED to go to get the votes.

[Borogove]

17. Canvassing in Columbia County, PA

I’ve been canvassing the last two months in Columbia County, PA, a predominantly Republican area. I’ve knocked on a lot of doors in Bloomsburg (the supposed home of Dave McCormick, who is losing to Bob Casey) and Berwick. Yesterday was very encouraging-people I’ve spoken with are completely fed up with the MAGA cult and are desperate to move on. Even talked to several Republicans who are enthusiastically voting for Kamala. I had a brief conversation with an elderly woman who had a pronounced accent. When I asked where she was from, she smiled and said Puerto Rico. She further volunteered that all of her Puerto Rican friends and family are voting for Kamala. I’m heading out now for another day of door knocking. I’d like to add that the enthusiasm at the Democratic Party Headquarters in Bloomsburg is through the roof. I should also mention that in the two months I’ve been canvassing I have yet to encounter a single canvasser for the Trump campaign.

[DownriverDem]

19. Please explain

why some states make you register by party? I don't get that. It seems illegal to me. In Michigan we just register.

[TBF]

21. I guess it is just state rules - in TX we have to register to vote

and then the only time to declare party is during primary. It does not obligate you to stay with that party in the general, however. Perhaps some states are tighter and only allow primary votes within registered parties.

[paleotn]

31. An anachronism. State's laws control elections within the state, even in national elections.

Some day, maybe we'll discover that all that state power is outdated and unnecessary in a modern society and chuck it most of it, along with the Electoral College. I'm not holding my breath.

[BumRushDaShow]

45. "why some states make you register by party?"

Here in PA, we have a "closed primary" so you can only vote in a primary election if you are registered to a party and someone from your party is on the ballot. Indies/unaffiliated can't vote in a primary unless there is some referendum on the ballot during that primary election and then that is all they can vote on.

[TBF]

20. I don't know PA, but if it's like the other midwest "blue" states

we may still be dealing with the loss of manufacturing in those states. In Wisconsin I remember it vividly in the 1980s - that's when outsourcing really took off (Reagan was president), and then NAFTA soon thereafter. Some folks moved closer to the cities, but in Wisconsin there were still folks who stayed in the small towns/rural areas. They would travel a little further to get to factories still open, and some figured out how to make the leap to tourism. Many are churchgoers in those small towns, and republicans reeled them in using that.

Shapiro has done a great job, from what I've seen as an outsider, trying to work in a bipartisan way - which hopefully will help democrats. We'll see how it breaks out this time, but if I were involved in the ground there, I'd spend my money on turnout of likely dems in the city. The rural areas are going to take time (much like Texas).

[BumRushDaShow]

49. "I don't know PA, but if it's like the other midwest "blue" states"

PA ain't the midwest!

I know the western side of the state is "closer" to it but where I am in Philly, I am 50 miles from the Atlantic Ocean (yes New Jersey is that narrow in spots)!



The east coast midatlantic/northeast states have had manufacturing plant issues as well but many of ours failed way before the midwest ones. IOW, what you hear (NJ's) Bruce Springsteen singing about... Hell, about a couple years ago, I discovered there was a steel mill in Coatesville, PA (what was best known as Lukens Steel Company), which is not far from Philly. It was set up along a tributary to the Brandywine Creek and does "rolled steel" ).




Philly had Midvale Steel (closed in the mid-'70s).



The phenomena of voting in PA was that in general, the rural people weren't really voting that much and the big urban areas pretty much offset and overrode whatever the rural voters did... at least until 2016, when 45 woke many of them up to vote for first time - after being multi-generational non-voters.

For some reason, the media made us into a "swing state" because of ONE aberrant election - 2016 - where PA hadn't voted for a GOP President since Poppy in 1988. I.e., PA voted GOP in only ONE OUT OF EIGHT Presidential elections since 1988.

Meanwhile, they refuse to call FL a "swing state" despite FL having voted for the Democrat FOUR OUT OF EIGHT Presidential elections since 1988.

[TBF]

59. lol - in my mind being midwestern is a compliment!

... but interesting that the outsourcing was a little earlier in PA. In my mind the downturn in manufacturing and republicans going after the churches all kind of mesh together in the 80s, and the rural areas then became a different animal. Prior to that most who worked in those factories belonged to unions and voted democratic. But perhaps it really was just Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan ... the states I would be most familiar with.

[BumRushDaShow]

60. "but interesting that the outsourcing was a little earlier in PA"

Remember that none of the states in the midwest were part of the "13 colonies"!!!



There was nothing but wilderness out there, more so than the wilderness here at the time. The east had been doing the "manufacturing" bit for way longer, and it finally gave way as people moved west, other types of businesses took hold, and eventually the industries were outsourced.

We used to have a HUGE textile industry here - which was the subject of the Mother Jones "March of the Mill Children" in 1903-

All of that is gone. Outsourced to places like Vietnam and Malaysia.

ETA - the "Kensington" of the textile mills described above, is the SAME Kesington (now a neighborhood in Philly) where this appeared last week -

[FalloutShelter]

26. Checking in from Bucks County, PA.

Last edited Sun Nov 3, 2024, 01:54 PM - Edit history (1)

Three canvassers this week for me too.
Wonderful and friendly and well trained.
My husband has already voted for Harris/Walz and every down ballot Democrats.
I will vote in person on Tuesday.

No Republican door knockers here.
Let’s bring it home.


Bucks County, PA UPDATE: 2pm Just had another pair of door knockers. The Dems are out in force in Bucks County Today!

[PCIntern]

36. Whereabouts are u living?

First 11 years in Bensalem, then New Hope where I came of age, then Center Bridge (“suburb” of New Hope), then Doylestown.

Great place in those days….

[FalloutShelter]

41. Doylestown...

new Britain end… three blocks from Del Val and the train station.

How you been? I’m eating my fingers but am cautiously optimistic.

[PCIntern]

43. I'm pretty confident...

This reminds me of 2008.

I lived in the apartments which used to be called Regency Woods behind the shopping center right down from Conti’s Cross Keys Inn, if that’s still there. Went to Solebury Private School. .

[FalloutShelter]

46. ARE YOU KIDDING ME?

I grew up in NorthJersey. In 1976 I moved to Doylestown with my first husband (the prince of darkness) and we lived in... REGENCY WOODS.
What a small small world.

[PCIntern]

47. I was in K building...

Right on the street near the entrance. My mom taught at Buckingham Friends School until 1980.

[FalloutShelter]

50. Don't remember what building I was in...

Back of the quad near the pool.
My current husband of 38 years is a birthright Quaker from Levittown.

WHo knew?

[PCIntern]

51. Cheers!!

Best to all of us!!

[debm55]

62. I am in Allegheny County. Ten miles south of Pittsburgh which is always Blue.

[PCIntern]

64. Dad was a Pittsburgher...Duquesne grad.

[LAS14]

66. Good to hear. But might you live in a blue neighborhood that Trump canvassers are skipping? nt

[FalloutShelter]

67. Absolutely not.

My whole neighborhood is blanketed with Trump signs with the exception of myself and my next door neighbor.

Six canvassers are n twos working both sides of the street.

GO BLUE

[LAS14]

69. Well, then, it's really, really good to hear!!!! nt

[FalloutShelter]

73. Sure 👍🏻 is.

[RobinA]

72. My Neigborhood

is blanketed withTrump signs except my broth-in-law next door whose got some nice Harris stuff. No canvassers ever. My precinct ALWAYS goes Repub, so the Dems may figure it's a lost cause. My area (not the whole county) has gone Trump every time. Montgomery County. A recent foray into Bucks the other day was depressingly Trump. Jenkintown area is all Harris.

[LAS14]

61. Good to hear! But do you live in a blue neighborhood? nt

[Cha]

74. Mahalo to you & the Canvassers For Kamala!🕊️🕯️💙🌊🌊🌊💙🇺🇸🌈

[kansasobama]

78. It is all about ground game in a tied state

We will see if Harris big advantage in money does this. For us, I hope she does. Kill rwo birds with one stone. Trump and Musk.

[Emile]

79. I even think Harris will win Iowa too!