Final NPR-PBS Marist National Poll: Harris by 4

[Pototan]

On the eve of the 2024 presidential election, Vice President Kamala Harris holds a 4-point lead over former President Donald Trump among likely voters nationally, according to the latest PBS News/NPR/Marist poll. Harris has the support of 51 percent of likely voters to Trump’s 47 percent – a lead just outside the poll’s 3.5-point margin of error.

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/harris-has-4-point-lead-over-trump-in-final-pbs-news-npr-marist-election-poll

[cilla4progress]

1. Is this as meaningful as swing state polls?

[Pototan]

2. Momentum

4 points is the same margin as Biden in 2020.

[uponit7771]

10. Nope but might affect down ballots, I wish there was more data on it

[PedroXimenez]

3. basic question...

the poll says the margin of error is +/- 3.5%. Doesn't that mean it would have to be a 7 point difference to be "outside the margin of error"?

[Pototan]

4. Yes.

That's my interpretation.

[PedroXimenez]

6. thank you

boo PBS!

[Metaphorical]

5. Which makes no sense

There's not been a lot of movements in polls compared to 2014, which was all over the case. An MoE of 3.5 is significant, which likely is more CYA than any valid statistical reason.

[Pototan]

7. The Harris plus 4 means

that she can be down by as much a 3 or up by as much as 11.

I personally think she's up by 6 and will win the EC by a comfortable margin.

I firmly believe she'll win women by 13 and lose men by 5. Women will outvote men 53 to 47.

This poll also has Harris down 5 among Independents. I disagree. I think she's up and that also brings her to up by 6+.

[mitch96]

8. How often is the NPR-PBS Marist National Poll correct? nt

[iemanja]

9. A 4 point win is my prediction

for what it's worth, which is absolutely nothing.