Election Eve Gut Check - How confident are you about our chances on Tuesday?

[LonePirate]

I posted three previous Gut Check threads asking for everyone's opinion on how they feel about our chances on Election Day. You can find the first one here, the second one here and the third one here.

Are you exceptionally confident or deeply depressed or somewhere in between?

170 votes, 0 passes | Time left: Unlimited
	Very confident we will win
	92 (54%)
	Somewhat confident we will win
	52 (31%)
	Not sure what to think
	22 (13%)
	Not very confident as things seem bad
	2 (1%)
	No confidence whatsoever as things look bleak
	2 (1%)
	0 DU members did not wish to select any of the options provided.
Show usernames Disclaimer: This is an Internet poll

[ColinC]

1. You'll be sorry you asked

[Tribetime]

3. South Carolina too

[FakeNoose]

8. This is a little too optimistic IMHO

However it will be a DEFINITIVE WIN for Kamala and Tim tomorrow.

Chump will be shocked when he finds out how many voters he's lost since 2020. He's toast.

[irisblue]

18. From your keyboard to all the Divine Ones. May it be so

[lees1975]

2. Maybe I'm setting myself up for disappointment, but I think she's done the campaign job necessary to convince the

American people to give her four years. Trump had his time and failed at everything. Regardless of what the corporate polls say, it's obvious he's fading. The enthusiasm that once characterized his rallies is gone, and no one is showing up anymore. I think enough Americans recognize the difference not to put him back in office.

[stumpysbear]

4. Interesting how the 2 "looks bleak" voters have account registrations within 20 minutes of each other on June 28

[TomSlick]

5. I am nervously optimistic.

I'm nervous because I'm optimistic.

[Jerry2144]

7. ME too

And more worried about the ways the Felon and his brain-washed followers will try to overthrow the election. Will democracy survive their assault starting upon Harris's vioctory

[lrymcqueen]

6. Very Confident

This dead heat shit is jut that, shit. It is gonna be a fucking blowout!!

Joe Biden beat him in 2020.

At that time :

Trump had not committed an insurrection

He had not been convicted of 34 felonies

The Jan 6 commission had not done their work

He had not been indicted for stealing top secret documents and for the insurrection

He had not been tied to Jeffrey Epstein to the extent he is now.

He had not lost two cases to E Jean Carrol literally showing him to have committed a sex crime.

He had not been found liable for hundreds of millions of dollars in fraud in New York

Fox News had not been found liable for almost a billion in fraud for lying about the 2020 election

He had not been joined at the hip with Elon Musk and Robert Kennedy and J D Vance

Nobody had heard of project 2025

Everybody who is anybody and tons of Republicans to include his last Vice President had not endorsed his opponent.

Two famous Generals who worked for him, and Liz Cheney had not called him a fascist .

He had not been thrown into an election with a much younger more exciting former prosecutor as an opponent AND

ROE vs WADE had not been overturned by his hand picked Supreme Court and he had not bragged about his success in getting that done.

I am sure I am leaving something out but hear me now. Get some sleep. Get up have breakfast while listening to some good music and then go vote if you ain't already. Get ready to enjoy tomorrow night and Wednesday. I am confident we will know before Wednesday at noon that we have elected the first Woman to the office of President in our history. It will be a great day in history.

[FakeNoose]

16. Yep - these are the same things I've been saying since the beginning of the year

Chump didn't have a chance, he defeated himself 4 years ago. (Well, actually it was before that.) He keeps digging himself deeper into the hole and he'll never get out. Even his own party doesn't want him back in the White House.

He faces the judge for felony sentencing in what? .. about 3 weeks ... and he'll get serious prison time.

What does he do then? I'm starting to think he won't fight any of it, he'll hop on his plane and leave the country forever.

[leftstreet]

9. Harris will walk away with this

No expert here - in fact I hardly follow much political news anymore

Trump won because too many people in the few deciding states didn't want to vote for Hillary. Those same people didn't ever want Trump, they just didn't want....

Harris will be the first female president. The only surprise here to me is that the GOPers let Trump run again. I honestly thought they'd offer their own version of "first female president" and make the POTUS race tight.

[qwlauren35]

10. You didn't really capture my position.

Slightly optimistic but scared to get my hopes up because of 2016.

[beaglelover]

12. I'm the same.

[missaj]

19. I agree.

I'm hopeful, but I still remember how much sadness and disbelief I felt that night.

[groundloop]

21. Me in 2016: "Trump will never in a million years set foot in the White House", SO ...... I'm nervous as hell.

Thanks to our fucked up system of choosing presidents the winner of the election doesn't always go to the White House. 66 MILLION votes is significantly more than 63 MILLION votes, yet tRump still managed to slither into the White House. Since then he's made it fashionable to be a lying racist sexist misogynistic bigot and millions of his like-minded followers have crawled out from under their rocks.

So yeah, I'm cautiously optimistic and very nervous, not only about the White House but also the House and Senate. If we can't retake the House and hold the Senate then nothing gets accomplished and repubs will be blaming President Harris for it.

[qwlauren35]

22. I don't think it's that bleak.

My hope is, of course, the trifecta.

However, I think the shadow of Trump is what has made things so bad. There ARE moderate Republicans in the House. We should be able to pass the Immigration Bill, possibly this year if not next year. And the Republicans are learning that shutting down the government looks bad.

Manchin is gone, and I think he's the last of the conservative Democrats. There are some moderate Republicans in the House. AND!!!! There are a lot of Republicans voting for Harris. LEVERAGE!!!!!

So yes, Trifecta, but if we don't get it, it's not the end of the world if Trump implodes and loses power. To me it's kind of like when a bunch of people are under the power of an extraordinary magician who has them all under a trance to do his bidding. Kill the magician, and people snap out of the trance.

[JohnSJ]

27. 2016 was a direct result of what comey did, and the MSM 11 days before the election having every right wing pundit

across their outlets pushing the LIE that the email investigation was reopened.

Late Friday, the weekend before the general election, Comey quietly came out and said there was nothing new found on the laptop, and nothing to justify reopening the case. The press barely covered it, but the damage was done by then. Hillary had 4-5 point lead before Comey, and that was completely erased after Comey.

The willful ignoring of that event in 2016 by the media and the pollsters to push the myth that the republicans were "under-represented" in 2016, to justify that they now add "weighting factors" to account for "under-represented" republicans, is nonsense.

That being said, I honestly do not think anyone has any idea how this will turnout. In a normal world, with all of trump's hate, lies, bigotry, he wouldn't even stand a chance, but this is no longer a normal world, where trump and his racism, sexism, and bigotry has been normalized with the help of social media platforms and the MSM.

The biggest issue I think that has never been answered is how to account for people who do not answer calls from numbers they do not recognize because of all the scams, and I suspect that is even more prevalent now than it was in 2016, and represents a significant number.

I also think there are a good number of people who are not to eager to provide information which some may consider private to a caller who claims to be a "legitimate" pollster. I don't anyway.

[EllieBC]

11. I'm very cautious. In 2016 I was

already celebrating. No way he had a snowball’s chance in hell of winning.

But we didn’t know how many stealth Trumpies there were.

So I’m not sure and wish I could be sure. I wish I could say I think Harris has this as a slam dunk.

[oasis]

13. This:🌊🌊🌊🌊🌊🌊🌊🌊🌊🌊🌊🌊🌊🌊🌊

Whoooosh!!!

[iemanja]

14. Hopeful

which is not the same as confident.

[durablend]

15. I'd go with "don't know what to think" right now...

I really don't like those two prognostications earlier that she *MIGHT* squeak it out but we're probably losing the Senate and might or might not flip the House so we're effectively screwed.

Hopefully I'm also wrong about my "talk me off the ledge" post a few days ago about people voting based on the price of eggs and to hell with democracy and those never Trumper or Haley people thinking voting for Harris is a bridge too far and voted for Trump anyway. Going by some of the analysis I've seen earlier today, that may not have been far fetched.

[Initech]

17. Confident but still nervous AF.

I'm sure Kamala will win, but as we saw in 2020, anything can happen between now and certification day.

[Mike 03]

28. THIS

I am very confident that Kamala Harris will prevail if the votes are counted and certified. I'm just worried about votes being challenged, voters being purged, provisional ballots not being counted, intimidation and the failure of certain red counties to certify the votes. Oh, and whatever magical mysterious arrangement Trump and Mike Johnson have cooked up. And the Supreme Court too.

[Polybius]

20. 270-280 Electoral Votes

I guess that falls as somewhat confident.

[LeftInTX]

25. I havent looked at the map.

I'm getting like 270 on the map.
Those spots in ME and NE could make or break.
EC changed because of census.

[lrymcqueen]

23. For those who are haunted by 2016.

In 2016 Trump had never been elected. We were coming off 8 years of racists seething about an Obama presidency, We ran a candidate that the right wing media had denigrated on a daily basis for 20 some odd years all day every day to the point that even some sane people were suspicious of her. I remember my sister not voting because she said she just couldn't trust Hillary Clinton. I liked her but I said before she got the nomination that if she got it we would lose because of what I just said about the 20 plus years of venom against her. (Think of the word Benghazi)
Russia ran a huge disinformation campaign in 2016 and Americans were not used to or aware of that kind of thing on that level. The NRA was used as a conduit to funnel huge amounts of Rubles into the Republican Party. (Nobody but Maria Butina and her boyfriend were ever prosecuted for this by the way and Chump pardoned him). That and all the things I mentioned in my post above are all the reasons this ain't 2016. I think Hillary was supremely qualified but I also think Kamala Harris is a much better candidate as she is more relatable and personable and much quicker on her feet than Hillary. ( remember how she handled hecklers)

I think we got this.

The people are tired of this shit. We have seen it in every election since Dobbs.

[LeftInTX]

24. I "give up" if we have another 2016

I am worried about AZ, GA, and NV.

I think we will get PA, MI and WI.

Can she afford to lose GA and AZ? The map.has changed. Rust belt has lost EV votes. Red states have gained.

[intrepidity]

26. I'm going with absolute certainty

The way I figure is we've experienced enough anxiety over the past (whatever time frame, from 9 years to ?) that we can take this ONE day to feel absolutely confident and optimistic.

Because, if we're wrong, the way we will feel afterwards will be terrible enough that we needn't experience that pain one minute longer than absolutely necessary. Why punish yourself prematurly? It won't have any impact on GOTV. Be extra kind to yourself today.

WE GOT THIS!

[RazorbackExpat]

29. I have to admit, I'm really, really nervous

I want Ukraine to defeat the invaders.
I want the hate rhetoric to end.
I want the United States to honor its commitments to its allies.
I don't want to see the United States kissing the butts of authoritarian dictatorships.

None of that will happen if the Orange Grifter is elected.

[akbacchus_BC]

30. I am very confident that VP Harris/Gov Waltz will be the next President/VP of the USA this election. I will be

following the results and checking in with DU. I'm in Canada and saw on Global News that even some Evangelicals are disgusted with the orange menace and his lies, some say they will not vote for Harris/Waltz because they support abortion and they don't. Hope they don't change their minds as one less vote for the turd is a vote for the Democratic Party.

[JCMach1]

31. Generational change election... Feels like 1992

At least to me