He could lose in a landslide if Iowa poll is correct

[Quixote1818]

?si=8eeRaCcn-GUi6xRU

[Omnipresent]

1. The poll doesn't show Kamala with a 51 to 48 lead...

Instead it shows a 47 to 44 lead.
Who are the 9% that aren’t voting for either candidate?

[TwilightZone]

2. 3% to RFK Jr, some to other third party, some didn't want to answer, 3% undecided

Fewer than 1% say they would vote for Libertarian presidential candidate Chase Oliver, 1% would vote for someone else, 3% aren’t sure and 2% don’t want to say for whom they already cast a ballot.

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2024/11/02/iowa-poll-kamala-harris-leads-donald-trump-2024-presidential-race/75354033007/

[GreenWave]

3. Right you are, but she has the "Joementum". +7 over past month.

[TwilightZone]

4. Iowa isn't really indicative of anything other than Iowa.

The campaign has been downplaying this poll and has said not to read too much into it.

Predicting a landslide based solely on one poll in Iowa is kind of the epitome of reading too much into it.

[edisdead]

5. I feel like

I feel like the campaign has been downplaying everything to avoid a 2016 situation where people thought they could vote 3rd part or not at all and still be safe.

[TwilightZone]

8. Possible, though Harris's campaign manager has been very positive about trends, etc.

Downplaying the poll is a little out of recent character, but as you said, tempering expectations is often the norm. She said the race was very close, all of the swing states were in play, and it was an MOE race, but the trends were good.

That's kind of the approach I've been taking. Cautiously optimistic. Prepared for it to be close, but a big win would only makes things better. I'm not going to celebrate until it's official, but I also think we're good.

[lees1975]

6. Another similar poll popped up in New Hampshire, Dartmouth, which also has a solid reputation.

And had her with a huge lead in NH, similar demographic figures.

[Quixote1818]

12. Good point nt

[Wednesdays]

7. True that. Watch Florida, Ohio, Texas.

If any ONE of those states go blue, we're in for a fun night.

[Johnny2X2X]

9. NC is what I am watching

NC goes blue and it's a fun night.

And how quickly reasonably competitive states are called is also a key. NH is blue for sure, but he was leading Biden there, if that gets called almost immediately, she is overperforming. In 2016, Indiana was supposed to be competitive, when they called it immediately, I knew we were in trouble.

[dsp3000]

10. North carolina is the one i'll be watching tonight too. after that popping a sleeping pill and going to try to go to bed

[TwilightZone]

11. I'd settle for the seven swingers.

Or any combination thereof that gets us to 270.

Florida is just bizarre this cycle. Rs have a one million vote edge in early voting. I have no clue what's going on there. If we somehow made that up today, it would be the weirdest comeback in memory.

I'm in Texas. I think the Senate race is more likely than the top line, but I'd take either or both. Late voters usually break right, but maybe we can break the trend. We're certainly trying.

Ohio would be hilarious if for no other reason than Vance.