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oldmanlynn

(511 posts) Wed Nov 6, 2024, 01:55 AM Nov 6

5

How were the polls and data off so much for a 4 pt margin

How did the Harris campaign not know they were 3 points down. Im so confused

16 replies

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How were the polls and data off so much for a 4 pt margin (Original Post) oldmanlynn Nov 6 OP

just like 2016 and 2020... WarGamer Nov 6 #1

Trump's team out smarted everyone Johnny2X2X Nov 6 #2

Unnnn, that doesn't explain 4 points hard to Trump ... that's outside MOE on all polls last 3 days. uponit7771 Nov 6 #7

It won't be four when all the votes come in. It'll probably be around 1-2 points at most. Self Esteem Nov 6 #9

Trumps team reached voters who don't usually vote Johnny2X2X Nov 6 #11

How did they beat the 18-29 yr old women?! I'll love to see the data here uponit7771 Nov 6 #12

They didn't have to beat them. Johnny2X2X Nov 6 #14

Also, Tucker & Rogan have bigger audiences than the cable tv shows womanofthehills Nov 6 #15

I begged her to go on Rogan Johnny2X2X Nov 6 #16

Bradley Effect with polling... JCMach1 Nov 6 #3

Young males AZSkiffyGeek Nov 6 #4

NONE OF US WOULD BELIEVE THE POLLS Drum Nov 6 #5

None of the polls in last 3 days were showing 4 hard to Trump uponit7771 Nov 6 #8

Except the ridiculous outliers that she was ahead in Polybius Nov 6 #10

And, record-setting fundraising and spending. Drum Nov 6 #6

NY Times Needle shows it will be less than a 2% difference in PA, MI and WI-- within the polls MOE andym Nov 6 #13

WarGamer

(15,756 posts)

1. just like 2016 and 2020...

Reply to oldmanlynn (Original post)

Wed Nov 6, 2024, 01:57 AM

Nov 6

Johnny2X2X

(21,882 posts)

2. Trump's team out smarted everyone

Reply to oldmanlynn (Original post)

Wed Nov 6, 2024, 01:58 AM

Nov 6

Again. They did it with micro ads in 2016 that no one suspected. They did it in 2024 with social media influencers, buying voter registrations, and running a high tech social media blitz that the Dems weren't clued in to.

Dems got caught flat footed again. It’s sickening.

uponit7771

(91,997 posts)

7. Unnnn, that doesn't explain 4 points hard to Trump ... that's outside MOE on all polls last 3 days.

Reply to Johnny2X2X (Reply #2)

Wed Nov 6, 2024, 02:06 AM

Nov 6

Self Esteem

(1,776 posts)

9. It won't be four when all the votes come in. It'll probably be around 1-2 points at most.

Reply to uponit7771 (Reply #7)

Wed Nov 6, 2024, 02:07 AM

Nov 6

Johnny2X2X

(21,882 posts)

11. Trumps team reached voters who don't usually vote

Reply to uponit7771 (Reply #7)

Wed Nov 6, 2024, 02:15 AM

Nov 6

The polls don’t account for them. He probably won with a ton of 18-29 year old men.

uponit7771

(91,997 posts)

12. How did they beat the 18-29 yr old women?! I'll love to see the data here

Reply to Johnny2X2X (Reply #11)

Wed Nov 6, 2024, 02:16 AM

Nov 6

Johnny2X2X

(21,882 posts)

14. They didn't have to beat them.

Reply to uponit7771 (Reply #12)

Wed Nov 6, 2024, 02:18 AM

Nov 6

They had to be enough to push him over the top. And I think Latino men flipped to Trump in some states.

I hate to say it, but Dems are playing checkers and the GOP and Musk were using AI to play chess. Dems thought they could run the same campaign they did in 2020.

womanofthehills

(9,332 posts)

15. Also, Tucker & Rogan have bigger audiences than the cable tv shows

Reply to Johnny2X2X (Reply #14)

Wed Nov 6, 2024, 02:28 AM

Nov 6

Lots of young males listen and they both had continual long interviews 5 days a week with Trump, JD, RFK Jr, Elon, Tulsi etc - over and over - really heavy the last week.

We definitely need a bigger social media presence.

Johnny2X2X

(21,882 posts)

16. I begged her to go on Rogan

Reply to womanofthehills (Reply #15)

Wed Nov 6, 2024, 02:29 AM

Nov 6

His audience is reasonable and she could have gotten millions of them to at least question the BS they were being fed.

JCMach1

(28,136 posts)

3. Bradley Effect with polling...

Reply to oldmanlynn (Original post)

Wed Nov 6, 2024, 02:01 AM

Nov 6

AZSkiffyGeek

(12,663 posts)

4. Young males

Reply to oldmanlynn (Original post)

Wed Nov 6, 2024, 02:02 AM

Nov 6

Drum

(9,891 posts)

5. NONE OF US WOULD BELIEVE THE POLLS

Reply to oldmanlynn (Original post)

Wed Nov 6, 2024, 02:04 AM

Nov 6

As recently as yesterday.

uponit7771

(91,997 posts)

8. None of the polls in last 3 days were showing 4 hard to Trump

Reply to Drum (Reply #5)

Wed Nov 6, 2024, 02:07 AM

Nov 6

Polybius

(18,365 posts)

10. Except the ridiculous outliers that she was ahead in

Reply to Drum (Reply #5)

Wed Nov 6, 2024, 02:10 AM

Nov 6

Like Iowa.

Drum

(9,891 posts)

6. And, record-setting fundraising and spending.

Reply to oldmanlynn (Original post)

Wed Nov 6, 2024, 02:06 AM

Nov 6

For naught.

andym

(5,724 posts)

13. NY Times Needle shows it will be less than a 2% difference in PA, MI and WI-- within the polls MOE

Reply to oldmanlynn (Original post)

Wed Nov 6, 2024, 02:18 AM

Nov 6

2% is within the MOE of the polls.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/11/05/us/elections/results-president-forecast-needle.html
The national polls were also spot on-- a near tie.

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