Mueller, She Wrote: Explain how we had record turnout but 18M fewer votes than 2020

[Dennis Donovan]

Mueller, She Wrote
I hope in the coming days someone is able to explain how we had record turnout but 18M fewer votes than 2020. Both of those things can’t be true.
8:27 AM · Nov 6, 2024

Link to tweet

[kerouac2]

1. This.

No concession till all votes are accounted for.

[BoRaGard]

26. Ditto. No concession till all cleared up

[jimfields33]

76. Vice president Harris gave concession speech earlier this afternoon.

[SCantiGOP]

30. The answer is pretty damn simple

The Democrats didn’t have a record turnout. Or does this blogger think MSNBC and the National Democratic Party are in on the conspiracy?

[jimfields33]

38. That's up to vice president Harris.

We definitely don’t get an option.

[BootinUp]

2. Reagan democrats?

[SheltieLover]

3. pootin's puppets dropped some on their way out?

[Qutzupalotl]

4. This post offers a chilling possible explanation:

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100219658601

[ananda]

15. And there was a woman in PA who voted and got back an empty ballot...

and the poll worker said they were saving time because of the long line.

I call bullshit.

[MartyTheGreek]

5. new registrations, record endorsements, women Dobbs, Little Latinos? Long Lines?

Filling stadiums, had momentum, perfect campaign in 90 Days, Middle class policies... Things just don't add up?

[usaf-vet]

44. I said it hours ago.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100219670795

[Eliot Rosewater]

81. They do not.

[lamp_shade]

6. Lawrence O'Donnell had a good possible explanation.....

He said that in some very safe blue states like CA or NY, many people don't vote because... why bother... their vote won't change the number of electoral votes.

[milestogo]

8. Wouldn't that have been true 4 years ago also?

[krawhitham]

34. Where is this record turnout story coming from?, in 2020 110 million voted early, only 82 million this time

That's 28 million short

in 2020 48.5 million votes on election day for a total of 158.5 million votes

in 2024 56.5 million votes on election day(so far) for a total of 138.7 (only includes Harris/trump votes, no 3rd party) million votes

We were 28 million short on early voting and day of only gained 8 million of that back

[SleeplessinSoCal]

43. Aren't votes still being counted? n/t

Are they part of the equation?

[Ms. Toad]

48. Not enough to matter on the presidential scale.

Some states which were late in 2020 changed how early/absentee votes were counted so that more were counted on election eve.

[SleeplessinSoCal]

50. not enough to account for stolen votes....

[Ms. Toad]

51. If, by stolen votes you mean

Anyone voter others, campaigns to make new citizens fearful of voting, limitations on early voting, fewer opportunities to vote in heavily Blue areas, mass infusions of cash by billionaires and foreign interests - I agree.

If you are talking about messing with ballots directly - that is just as much nonsense as it was when Trump claimed it in 2020.

[HereForTheParty]

74. Please, let's not be election deniers

nm

[Sunsky]

25. Broward County

Florida's bluest county had over 80K fewer votes this election than in 2020. I don't believe any Broward resident would believe their vote doesn't matter in a statewide election. While Miami-Dade which has been trending right recently, added more votes this election. Lawrence could be correct about those blue states but I believe it was more widespread than that.
Sad to say, despite the threat to our democracy, some Democrats stayed home, and some voted third party. Maga's divide and conquer won last night.

[ificandream]

37. How would that have changed anything?

It's the electoral college, damn it, that runs the show.

[jimfields33]

77. This election the electoral did run the show, but the popular vote also was achieved.

First time since 2004 for them.

[muriel_volestrangler]

7. What count says "18m fewer votes"?

If I look at https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-elections/president-results , it shows California has been called for VP Harris with just 58% of its votes in (5.6 million votes to Trump's 3.9 million). The final CA votes in 2020 were 11.1 million and 6 million.

So is this "18 million" number accounting for all votes cast, or just those apportioned to candidates so far?

[tritsofme]

17. It's only the votes counted. There isn't a real story here

[Takket]

9. Takes many days for all the votes to be counted

I remember Biden kept going up for weeks after 2020 was called.

[usaf-vet]

46. Below!!! ALL THE VOTES ARE NOT COUNTED.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100219670795

[uponit7771]

10. ***MAIL IN BALLOTS ARE EASY STANDING IN LINE FOR 3 HOURS IS HARD!!!*** ... and mostly for the privileged, most ...

...working adults without college education can't afford to do that.

Not encouraging mail in ballots is the one thing Harris did different operationally this time that Biden did do last time

[happy feet]

12. I place

No blame on Harris/Walz
White men voted 59% and white women voted 52% for TFG. The media failed us with bothsiderisms and not calling out TFGs’ lies, w/assist from Putin and oligarchs like Musk, Bezos…, white Christian (so called) nationalists, amoral Repubs and a racist, sexist electorate.

[krawhitham]

39. You place no blame on the ticket that did worse in nearly every county in America than Joe did 4 years ago?

Harris was put in a horrible spot, no way changing candidates that late in the game was going to work. Plus her campaign FAILED her, she should have been doing interviews on day 2, but her campaign waited way too long and trump's narrative of her being incapable of answering questions stuck. Why the campaigned made that choice is mind boggling, because she CRUSHED every interview, even the one with that fox news hack

Forcing Joe out was INSANE, it was never going to work, many tried to warn the party, but pelosi is never wrong and she tanked Joe. Even 2 weeks after Joe's debate he was still up 60-40 on 538, forcing Joe out beyond INSANE

[BattleRow]

11. How are the votes of military members counted..stateside and abroad?

[LittleGirl]

22. In the state they used to live in.

Former expat

[RidinWithHarris]

13. The final vote total takes quite a while, especially from California n/t

[WarGamer]

14. ummm... ask her if she remembers COVID?

[lark]

16. Russia/RNC figured out a way to hack the machines and not show it.

That is the only thing that makes sense to me.

[Justice matters.]

18. Young males addicted to X wanting a ticket to win one effin million?

The "rush" to register to vote for the first time in the so-called Blue Wall should be looked at.

And also Hispanics there not giving a flying F about being called garbage by their slave masters?

[SpikeDash]

19. The purge

18 -19 million voters have been purged since 2020. If the republican's ideas were any good, why do they need to purge voters?

[TheRickles]

24. I've never seen such a high number anywhere. Do you have a link?

Welcome to DU. We usually try to document our assertions with backup links whenever possible.

[onenote]

57. Here is a link.

https://www.brennancenter.org/issues/ensure-every-american-can-vote/vote-suppression/voter-purges

[TheRickles]

63. Thank you. I never realized it was so high. :-(

[okaawhatever]

80. Wow. Thanks for sharing that. I had no idea it was so high. nt

[notroot]

20. Conspiracy Theory: The Republicans' accusations of voting machine fraud were confessions.

[valleyrogue]

21. Answer: Combination of voter suppression and enough Democrats in blue states

who felt their votes "wouldn't count" to affect the outcome in their states.

18 million votes total including 3 million less for Trump. Something is afoot.

We are going to pay dearly for this.

[peacebuzzard]

45. 3 million less for the mic jerk? A poster stated he had the most in popular votes.

I kind of drifted off since the numbers rolled but did he get the most in popular vote vs Harris?

[onenote]

55. The current totals, which are far from final, have Trump getting 3 million less than in 2020 but still getting more

than Harris.

At the small Virginia precinct where I worked yesterday, Trump increased his vote total over 2020 by around 80% while Harris' vote totals were flat and third party candidates went from fewer than 10 votes in 2020 to over 90 this year.

The point being, that comparisons between one election and another are hardly the best indicators of anything.

[peacebuzzard]

61. Thanks for your analysis

No confort anywhere today. Trying to Stay away from this for now ….

[peacebuzzard]

62. Duplicate

[soandso]

64. Numbers so far

2020 & 2024 (so far)

('20) Biden 81,283,501
('24) Harris 67,691,165
('24) Deficit 13,529, 336

('20) Trump 74,223,975
('24) Trump 74,102,014
('24) Deficit 121,961

Sources:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election
https://decisiondeskhq.com/results/2024/General/President/

[dlk]

23. Republicans cheat

It’s a given.

[usaf-vet]

49. So!

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100219670795

[soandso]

65. But they got fewer votes this time

Just over 100K fewer

If they cheated, wouldn't they have rigged it to get even more than last time?

[annielion]

27. Looks like election fraud to me

I do not believe that tfg won the election fairly. It makes no sense with the huge turnout and with the overturning of Roe v Wade. I hope those involved in election integrity are looking into this.

[Frank D. Lincoln]

31. I know what you mean.

Something just doesn't feel right about this election. It just doesn't ring true.

It's hard to put my finger on it. I can't explain it.

This isn't a case of sour grapes. Something just seems off.

[jimfields33]

78. MSNBC has been saying it's the economy all day long.

They seem to believe that was why voters voted the way they did.

[Zeitghost]

79. There was no huge turnout

And the Republicans won the mid term election less than 5 months after Roe was overturned by 3%. The Dobbs decision seems to have had little to no effect on voters.

There has been a shift of 3%-5% over the last 4 years and it continued on nationwide yesterday in red states as well as blue. I believe Washington State was the only place Trump didn't do better than 2020 and that was essentially flat.

[Javaman]

28. Roger stone has been awfully quiet nt

[barbtries]

29. Something is definitely rotten.

of course it always is. always, with republicans, always.

the ends justify the means.

their accusations are almost always projections.

we are cursed as a nation. for how long is impossible to predict, but I'll do it anyway and say for at least one or 2 generations.

[SomedayKindaLove]

32. Who said we had record turnout?

[haele]

71. Record turnout is subjective.

Some states removed some ballot drop-off boxes or reduced the number of in person polling places (in person or same day)so more people had to stand in line longer in fewer locations than in 2020. So "Record Turnout" could mean fewer district poll locations to service the communities with a more voters showing up to fewer poll locations. Same amount of people in a district. Just more in one place.
Fewer locations also means those locations may end up with provisional ballot shortages or people leaving the longer line because they just couldn't stand there that long.
It's an oblique form of voter suppression. Especially if they purged voter rolls a few months prior.

Haele

[Self Esteem]

33. It's not going to be record turnout because one side failed to turn out.

Democrats stayed home.

[Dark n Stormy Knight]

35. Why on earth would Dems stay home???

Dems knew the stakes.

[Zeitghost]

60. It looks like 4-5 million Biden voters stayed home

It will be a few days before final numbers are in.

[soandso]

66. Try over 13 million

[Zeitghost]

67. Still lots of votes uncounted in California

Likely another 3M Trump votes and 5M Harris votes in CA alone.

[soandso]

69. Yes, you're right

that there are still votes to be counted. All we can assess is what we have now.

[Orrex]

40. Without assuming your conclusion, what makes you say that?

[Self Esteem]

41. The data.

In 2020, 37% of voters were Democrats.

Yesterday? 32%.

[Orrex]

47. That's the part about assuming your conclusion

When every report we heard from every state described massive turnout before and on Election Day, it’s difficult to accept at face value the assertion that 18M fewer voted in the most consequential (and possibly the last) election in the nation’s history.

If the data itself is in question, it is unpersuasive to assert the data as proof.

[onenote]

54. Aren't those saying there were 18 million fewer votes using the data as proof?

In 2020 over 100 million votes were cast before election day and another 57 million cast on election day. This year, nearly 20 million fewer votes were reported as being cast before election day. That means over 76 million people would have to shown up at the polls yesterday. A smaller number could easily have shown, and still been more than voted on election day in 2020 yet resulted in a smaller combined total. And, of course there still are millions of votes not yet included in the 2024 total since there are areas that haven't reported their numbers -- especially California.

[Self Esteem]

56. We hear that every election.

Reports of turnout being an all-timer. I remember hearing it in 2004 with Bush and Kerry and it never materialized. It's just anecdotal data until all the votes are counted.

So, no the one assuming here were those who assumed turnout would be an all-time high based on incomplete data points.

[soandso]

68. There are a small percentage of votes yet to be counted

And here's where the numbers stand:

2020 & 2024 (so far)

('20) Biden 81,283,501
('24) Harris 67,691,165
('24) Deficit 13,529, 336

('20) Trump 74,223,975
('24) Trump 74,102,014
('24) Deficit 121,961

Sources:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election
https://decisiondeskhq.com/results/2024/General/President/

So, what are you saying isn't persuasive?

[thebigidea]

36. maybe that great hero Mueller can get to the bottom of it

[Cha]

42. I'd like it explained too.. And, I'm not above

thinking there is a GD Conspiracy involved by Fucking Russia.

[onenote]

52. First, not all votes have been tabulated. Second, who is documenting "record" turnout?

There are millions of votes that haven't yet been counted and reported. When all is said and done, I expect the total number of votes cast to be less than 2020 but not 18 million less--in fact the current difference has dropped to less than 17 million and California alone still has millions of votes out. Moreover, given that all votes haven been tabulated yet, how can anyone be saying, objectively, that there was "record" turnout? Were there long lines at some polling places? Yes, but there also were short lines at some places. Hardly a surprise or unusual. In addition to the extent fewer people cast early in-person or mail in votes than in 2020 -- a lot less, in fact. Put another way, in 2020, over 100,000,000 early in-person and mail-in votes were cast and another 57 million were cast in person. This year 82 million in person and mail in votes were cast. Just to match the total votes cast in 2020, over 76 million voters would have to show up at the polls. So it wouldn't be surprising that more in-person voters showed up at some locations yesterday, but still end up with a combined total that is less than the combined 2020 total.

[cilla4progress]

53. YESSSSSSSSS!

Is there any hope of this being investigated as long as Biden is in office?

[Kaleva]

58. Has it been confirmed that there was a record turnout?

[soandso]

70. nope

[Kaleva]

72. Thanks!

[soandso]

75. Sure!

I think it comes down to the fact that the general election is only every four years and a lot more people come out for it. Hence, the stories about long lines and whatnot. Yes, it was a lot of people but not astounding.

[Zeitghost]

59. Still millions of votes to count

Trump will pick up another 2+ million in CA alone which is less than 60% counted. Harris will get even more.

Trump will likely improve slightly on his 2020 count of 74.2M. Harris will come in somewhere around 8M short of Biden's 2020 total.

There was no record turnout, we will be ~5 million votes short of the 2020 record.

[BrightKnight]

73. Doubt voting machines use quantum resistant encryption and security.

Some tech billionaires have access to massive gpu farms, quantum computers, and custom nsa grade ai tools.

Of the shelf voting machines are not designed for this kind of threat profile.

[onenote]

82. NBC projects that there are still as many as 15 million votes to be counted nationwide.

If that turns out to be the case, there actually will have been pretty much the same number of votes cast this year than in 2020. And even if their estimate is off by half, the total number of votes cast would only be 6 million fewer than in 2020 -- a drop of less than 4%, which would hardly be surprising in a race where there were a lot of voters who turned off before Biden dropped out because they didn't like either choice and may not have come back even after Harris became the nominee.

[Montauk6]

83. But was it a record turnout? Do we know yet the number of eligibles that did NOT vote?