This exit poll result suggests that the biggest factor was

[spooky3]

We all know of the shortcomings of exit polls, but they’re all we have for now, and this result really jumped out at me.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-elections/exit-polls?amp=1

Do you think the condition of the nation's economy is:

Excellent or good (31% of the voters)
91% voted Dem
8% voted Republican

Not so good or poor (68% of the voters)
28% Dem
70% Repub

There were lots of breakdowns by race, gender, education, etc., but this one showed a huge difference. So I don’t want to oversimplify the results.

However, this result suggests that many voters really believe that inflation etc. is terrible and they were willing to ignore the many problems with TFG because they are pissed at Biden/Harris for this.

[wcmagumba]

1. Ain't seen any inflation like that coming...with tariffs and other Trump clan braniac plans....turds...

[LakeArenal]

29. My exact thoughts. "They ain't seen nothin' yet!"

[markodochartaigh]

42. Before Trump only Iran and Libya

talked about ending the dollar's reserve currency status. During Trump even France and Germany were talking about it. When the dollar loses reserve currency status inflation in the US will skyrocket.

When the Republicans tank Social Security millions of seniors will be forced to sell their homes into a market rapidly spiraling downward in order to get money for living expenses. These houses will be bought up in bulk for pennies on the dollar in cash by hedge funds. Children will lose their inheritance.

[LisaM]

2. Are they completely unaware of the economy in other countries?

All economies are struggling in a post-COVID world and ours is about the best.

I fault the media for not pointing this out more -especially in the debates - but how do people not see that Trump completely unravelled the Obama economy, and Biden kept us from sliding into a recession? Do they forget what 2020 was like?

Trump inherited a good economy and dismantled it.

[Butterflylady]

5. And he will do it again.......

But this time they can't blame the dems. That's good in a way.

One thing that bugs me, is when Joe did something, nobody gave him any credit. All they did was harass him and he did not deserve it.
Someone here put a list out of his accomplishments and some I knew about, but there were so many I didn't.

I hope that history does right by him.

[jimfields33]

36. I'm worried that musk wants to cut 2 trillion from the budget.

but 2 trillion is a lot of cuts and where will they focus on?

[Passages]

39. Not rich people.

[soandso]

56. The current deficit is around 2.7 trillion, I think

with spending about 5 trillion more (paid for). Perhaps he's thinking of a balanced budget.

[jimfields33]

62. I mean I guess a balanced budget would be ok. But the cuts would have to be drastic I think.

[soandso]

64. Yes, a balanced budget would be a very good thing

Debt is bad and the US not only has way too much of it but pays a fortune in interest on it.

Where all the money goes, I don't know but, I suspect, huge amounts could be slashed by getting rid of waste and fraud and reprioritizing what is spent on what.

[Martin Eden]

68. There are two sides of the ledger: income and spending

Why only look at only one side, while ignoring the other?

RESCIND THE BUSH & TRUMP TAX CUTS FOR THE RICH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Takket]

18. "Are they completely unaware of the economy in other countries?"

Yes. There is a percentage of the country that is racist horrid awful pieces of shit. But there is a percentage maybe 10%? 5%? of people who have NO IDEA what is going on, thinks all politicians are horrible/the same, and just voted for drumpf because through some sense of nostalgia for a time that never was, thinks the economy was great until Biden ruined it.

[Pinback]

35. Yeah, they're gonna love the tariff-ic economy the Trumpanistas have in store.

Or will they buy the lie that somehow rising costs are the fault of the Biden-Harris administration?

[bdamomma]

32. it is the best

in the world. And we all know he will come in and undo everything that President Biden has done and claim he
did it, and the border is closed, and he will claim he did that too, and people will believe the liar.

So sad people believe the lies of this felon.

[Jack Valentino]

48. Unless there's a foreign hurricane or earthquake, it is easy to forget that there are other countries

in the world-- from the little news coverage they receive here in the U.S.

We are a very self-centered country.

Perhaps it's appropriate that we have just elected the most self-centered politician in the country.

[thesquanderer]

52. re: "Are they completely unaware of the economy in other countries?"

I suspect the majority of voters have virtually no idea what's happening in the economy of any other countries.

[Jersey Devil]

3. Makes sense when you consider Gen-x was the only age group,

according to exit polls, who voted for Ttump over Harris. That age group would consist of a lot of families with children, buying houses, etc., that would feel the effects of inflation maybe the hardest.

[unc70]

7. Gen X came of age during Reagan

In many ways this led to them rejecting the liberal views of the Boomers.

[Renew Deal]

46. Gen X also elected Obama in 2008

[WA-03 Democrat]

24. Gen x was the only age group that voted for Trump?

Interesting! Got a link?

Had no idea there were that many of us.

[TBF]

33. Surprises me too - I'm on the older side of Gen X

already have a house and older kids. I wasn't confused about the economy.

What did folks think would happen coming out of a pandemic? And how could they possibly think Trump would do better? All he will do is give tax breaks to his billionaire friends.

[littlemissmartypants]

47. You would go a long way toward supporting those

Assertions if you would include the links to your sources.

I'm sure many of us are interested.



❤️

[alarimer]

4. It is impossible to counteract the firehouse of bullshit coming from the Trump side.

"Flooding the zone" with ad after ad that was just lies about everything, including the economy. To say nothing of the misinformation machine that is Twitter.

[malaise]

6. I heard that Democracy was #1 in the Exit polls

Is that so

[spooky3]

15. Hi malaise! If you go to the link and search for "democracy" you will see some results for this.

[malaise]

16. Thanks

[markodochartaigh]

43. If the pollsters don't ask

if they think that Harris is a danger to democracy or whether Trump is a danger to democracy then asking if democracy is in danger is meaningless at best and deliberately misleading at worst.

Reich-wing pundits have been heralding Kamala as the imminent threat to democracy for months.

[Deuxcents]

8. Their anger, dissatisfaction was taken out on the most qualified person for president.

The greed of companies and their shareholders who give millions to management in quarterly bonuses was never reported by the voters..just prices are too high so it’s Biden’s fault. Wait until their car breaks down or they need a new washing machine or their cell phone needs replaced. I’m sure it’s Biden’s fault then, too.

[kerouac2]

9. Unfortunately most people don't understand economics at all and

Don't read or watch a reputable source for info , including about global causes for things that happen here. Hell, they don't seem to remember the pandemic. They relied on the basic, simple lies from the gop. It's Bidens fault and trump will fix it. Biden and harris are the worst ever etc. Dems, as always it seems, need to simplify and take credit for great things. Because otherwise trump and the GOP will.

[kerouac2]

13. Plus the base of awful hateful repubs

That would never vote for a woman or non white or non repub. They have that deplorable base. They just need to con and confuse and scare 10%

[the_liberal_grandpa]

61. Most people don't know how government works

Reagan axed Civics in high school. That’s where I learned it.

[bigtree]

10. so they chose a racist convicted felon to make that better for them?

...I don't believe that.

The economy is excuse and cover for 'I don't like Blacks, Latinos, Muslims, Haitians, and women.'

[jimfields33]

37. Latinos we're 45 percent of the vote for trump.

[Kali]

51. they weren't 45% of his vote

he got 45% of their votes.

[Solomon]

66. Exactly. I'm sick of the excuses. The problem is glaringly obvious. Both sides do the same kind of gaslighting when it

comes to excusing white supremacy.

[PhilosopherKing]

11. The biggest factor was

Trump voters are stupid.

[milestogo]

12. Call me weird, but I've never believed that POTUS has total control

over the price of gas or the price of eggs. I think its probably more complicated.

But hey, I probably think too much. That's why I'm a Democrat.

[spooky3]

14. Research shows you are right. However, I agree with those who have said many voters simply do not

understand what influences prices and many other economic factors. Poor econ. education, TFG and Fox misinformation, too little good reporting on the econ by journalists, voter laziness in seeking out info, etc., enter into it too.

[SharonAnn]

26. Don't forget the constant lies from Fox "News".

[spooky3]

27. I mentioned Fox in my post. nt

[Passages]

17. Trump won the popular vote. I am still trying to process that fact.

Not long ago WNYC was asking callers for feedback on the economy and they spoke clearly about their economic situations.
Single parents, working 3 jobs, and on and on. When they had economists on and posed these deep stress levels callers spoke about, they dismissed them as inaccurate. The economy was quite good, the stock market good, and things are much better. Essentially telling these callers they are wrong.

These callers are desperate people and unfortunately may have gone to Trump in an attempt at relief. Relief they will never see realized with Trump.

In time we must examine everything that happened objectively or we will continue to lose.

[RJ_MacReady]

19. The Guardian wrote an article on this

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/nov/06/kamala-harris-us-elections-donald-trump-victory

[Passages]

21. Thank you, very good information.

[RJ_MacReady]

23. you're welcome

It really does explain things clearly. And it all makes perfect sense. We to need to reassess our methods.

[flamingdem]

31. This is bullshit blaming Biden for rolling back the Child Tax Credit

Manchin is responsible.

Medicaid also bullshit. The Dems always trying to expand that. The GOP blocking.

[Jack Valentino]

49. The price of their Doritos will certainly climb even higher,

if much of Trump's agenda is made effective...

[onenote]

53. Maybe he did, but maybe not. An probably not by as much as currently thought.

NBC projects that across the nation, there are over 15 million votes still to be counted, with well over half in states Harris has won like California and New York. Will that projection turn out to be correct? If so, will she be able to overtake Trump in the national popular vote when all is said in done? No way to tell until the final numbers are tabulated.

[Passages]

71. I want all the details too, everything so we can assess objectively.

I doubt I will ever trust another poll as long as I am alive.

[BadgerKid]

20. Tells me R's rejected potential betterment

under a Harris administration? They weren’t open to listening.

[fairfaxvadem]

22. I'm glad you brought this up, as I have questions...

So, okay - we've been hearing about the inflation factor for a while. I won't deny that prices at the grocery store have been ridiculous. Not on every single thing but enough that I've laughed out loud when I go shopping on many occasions.

But, when I hear the "Random Person" interview, I get frustrated that the so-called interviewer just accepts it as fact and doesn't do any follow-up.

What does the "RP" expect the federal government to do about the price of eggs/bread?

Does "RP" think the federal government controls the prices of these items? Think USSR, I guess? (and Nixon's temporary wage/price freeze in 1970? The oil embargo and odd/even gas days?)

Does "RP" believe in capitalism? The scarcity model? I assume yes. Until they don't and want a magic wand?

All that said, I remember the 1970s (as mentioned above) and yes, the Feds went really high on interest rates then too, trying to combat inflation. Read up on Volker and his intereste rate hikes and have that heart attack!!

A short-term memory and low information is a wonderful thing.

But hey, the US is kicking economic ass, unemployment is low, 401Ks are generally doing well, and we are the envy of the world but no, we can't have nice things. Like a qualified woman president. Housing and Rent? Yeah, off the charts. No argument. But again, scarcity. And a very local problem, not a Fed problem, in my opinion. I live it every day in Fairfax County. "Build more housing!" "NO! I'm sick of traffic and construction" On and on.

Rant off. (But Trump will fix all this, right?!)

[spooky3]

25. Here's a BBC article that provides anecdotes showing how deluded some voters are

re: the economy and why prices are higher:

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cze3yr77j9wo

[tanyev]

28. And Trump's tariffs will fix all their problems.

[LakeArenal]

30. They bitched about inflation while wearing $40 MAGA hats and flying $100 trump flags.

BS shit!

[Pinback]

41. Made in China. (nt)

[pstokely]

63. and the price of gas filling up for F350 pickups

shy racists

[mucifer]

34. Why should i believe an exit poll? All the polls were wrong,

[Skittles]

40. I posted that a few days ago

I don't believe ANY polls

POLLS ARE WORTHLESS

[Jack Valentino]

54. Because an "exit poll" is strictly raw data, not "adjusted" in any way by the pollster.

For that reason the results would be more trustworthy than other polls or surveys--

however, people can still lie about their opinions or how they voted, of course...

[Skittles]

38. republicans will not do ANYTHING to help the average worker

why does the average person not fucking understand that? REPUKES WORK FOR BILLIONAIRES

[Jack Valentino]

44. Voters who don't understand the difference between "inflation" and high prices

think that prices are supposed to go down if inflation is low--- but that is "deflation" which means you're in an economic downturn...


Like I said elsewhere, too many voters thought they were voting for a cheaper bag of Doritos...

[Nanjeanne]

45. When people can't recognize something specific in their life they are easily misdirected.

Many believed the stimulus checks that Donald signed were his work not Ds.

I guarantee that the $2000 cap on drugs for Medicare recipients that was passed under Biden but doesn’t go into effect until 2025 will be claimed to be a Trump policy and media won’t get through to regular folks. Big mistake that when it was passed they didn’t have it start in 2024. But it’s going to be claimed as a great gain by Rs next year guarantee.

[Emile]

50. Predatory capitalism caused world wide inflation and

these.idiots blame the democratic party.

[Orrex]

55. The average person doesn't care if the DOW tops 40,000

Yes, yes, their 401Ks and IRAs will benefit, but a very large number of Americans have no investments at all and are living check to check or worse, so which of them is going to give a fuck if some blue chip stock splits?

I hate to quote Carville, but

[Mr. Scorpio]

57. Trust me

When prices skyrocket under Trump, they’ll find a way to ignore it or find someone they hate to blame. They will be pathetically incapable of holding Trump and the Republicans accountable.

[Bluetus]

58. I have no problem with exit polls

Re: "We all know of the shortcomings of exit polls"

I am a huge critic of the polling industry. I believe it has always been pseudo-science and is now worse than worthless, except to observe trends, and even that doesn't serve anybody very well.

But exit polls are a completely different thing.

#1, it catches people just after they have committed themselves, and they are more likely to be honest about what they just did and why.

#2. nobody is trying to accurately predict any future races based on exit polls. The purpose of exit polls is to gain some insights about why people act as they do.

[4lbs]

59. That argument seems to hold. In a "highly progressive" state like CA, the 4 state ballot

measures that failed (all were NO votes), they had to do with the economy, finance, taxes, or something of that ilk.

https://electionresults.sos.ca.gov/returns/ballot-measures

Prop 5 -- Bonds for Affordable Housing and Infrastructure -- 56% NO
It was argued that it would lead to higher Property Taxes because of easier bond debt.
So, many voters voted against it.

Prop 6 -- Forcing Inmates to Work -- 55% NO
No opponents to the Prop were submitted, and it was actually favored by a bi-partisan group
in the state. Yet it failed anyway.

Prop 32 - State Minimum Wage to $18 per hour -- 52% NO
It's opponents were the State Chamber of Commerce, the Restaurant Association,
and the Grocers' Association.
They argued that it was horribly written and deserved to be voted down as a result.
Seems many voters believed them.
It will go to $18 per hour anyway, in a few years, instead of Jan 1, 2025, but it seems many
voters wanted to delay that as much as possible. It was the closest to 50/50 but ultimately
didn't succeed because arguments favoring it were not really coherent.
It needed 51% YES, but got 52% NO instead.

Prop 33 - State Rent Controls -- 61% NO
Opponents said it would "freeze" construction and actually make housing and rent go up
as a result -- a lot of demand for less supply. Even though it would have been prevented by
the ballot measure. Looks like voters believed them though, and voted it down..


All the other state ballot measures were voted YES and included Bonds for Public Schools and Colleges, Water/Wildlife/Climate Change (to help mitigate fire threats and beach erosion), Constitutional Right to Marriage, Restrict Spending of Prescription Drug Revenues by Insurance Companies, Permanent Funding for MediCal (the CALifornia Equivalent of MEDIcare).

[Bluetus]

60. "The economy" is not the same thing as "inflation"

Last edited Thu Nov 7, 2024, 01:23 AM - Edit history (1)

but I agree with the poll and the OP that this is where the election was lost more than any other single factor.

Objectively, this is the best economy in 40 years, and it comes when virtually all economists were predicting a recession, or at best a "soft landing", which is a mini-recession. In fact, the economy is nowhere near recession. It really is strong.

So are Republicans irrational? No, they just don't understand economics very well. Most people with post-HS education vote Democratic. That doesn't make those with less formal education bad people or stupid. But it does make them much more susceptible to misinformation and gaslighting.

When they say "the economy is bad", most of them mean "I remember when we could buy a Happy Meal for $4, and now it is $7". Much of what the Harris campaign did was remarkably good, considering the short timeline. But they completely failed to explain to the voters about inflation. The message needed to be stated clearly and frequently,

"When COVID shut down much of our economy, supply chains all over the world were messed up. Over a million Americans died, and that included hundreds of thousands of people that staffed meat plants, car parts suppliers and many other industries. When we were able to safely return to work, we couldn't get many of the things we needed. The law of supply and demand drove up prices on many items during 2021, even into 2022. And prices went up. Some of the prices have come down, some have not and will not. But inflation today is about 2% annually, and that is exactly where the FED wants it to be. The economy is as strong as it has been in 40 years, and that includes real wage increases for many working Americans. I know this has been a difficult adjustment for many people, especially if you had to change jobs in order to get better wages, but that adjustment is mostly over. There are many good jobs available and very low inflation now.

The campaign never explained this, and that was a huge mistake, I think.

[Takket]

67. This has bothered me for a long time.

I think they were all worried saying “I know inflation is bad but here is why it isn’t our fault and here is what we did to keep it from getting worse” would not play well with voters. But here we are. We should have been leaning into our accomplishments. The media didn’t help. All they do is find some person who says “I’m mad at Biden because of inflation” and stick a mic in his face. Without ever giving and clarity or context to anything.

[LonePirate]

65. I bet almost all of those "Not so good or poor" responders think the economy is great today despite no change in policy.

Facts no longer matter.

[Ysabel]

69. I notice grocery prices up but I also notice very low unemployment...

I wonder though how many of the jobs are good quality jobs. I really do think that everyone should make at the very least approx. $65 an hour with full medical insurance and pensions as well as regular guaranteed raises of at least $5 per year...

- Plus big (VERY BIG) merit bonuses...

[jimfields33]

70. Could you imagine? Those on social security

would really be screwed. The prices of things would have to be threw the roof to be able to compensate for that wage and benefits.