Trump hasn't won the popular vote

[Galraedia]

Any news media claiming he has is being deceitful and dishonest, not to mention disrespectful to many voters whose votes have yet to be counted. Right now Harris' is behind in the popular vote by 4.3 million with California having counted just 58% of their votes with about 9 million remaining. I'm predicting that trump will get at the most 2 million of those votes, similar to how he did last time. At that point Harris be ahead of Trump in the popular vote by over half a million.

I bring this up because I think it's dishonest for certain media and Apartheid Clyde on Xhitter to claim that Trump has a mandate given to him by the majority of the American people.

[Freddie]

1. So we got Electoral College'd again

That fine institution meant to protect slavery and now just perpetuates idiocracy and minority rule.

[Polybius]

10. No

See post 7. Trump is losing Cali 58-40. 9 million votes are left, and the OP underestimated the vote that will go to Trump.

[Trueblue1968]

33. Kamala is Bound to get at least 50% of the 9 million of Democratic Blue California !!!!!

I bet she wins the US popular vote. I hope Rump has a heart o er the news that a Girl IS more popular than he is !!!!!!!!

[KS Toronado]

55. Yep we got Electoral College'd again

Wish there was a way to put on the national ballots a measure to keep the Electoral College or to go
to a popular vote winner.

When one considers a small handful of votes in any State can swing an election and disenfranchises
millions of voters, it just plain isn't fair.

[roamer65]

2. I am hoping you are right.

I want him labeled as illegitimate again.

Rutherfraud J Dump.

[Karasu]

57. I would consider him illegitimate...

...in the sense that he technically wasn't even eligible to run, but by the time that finally came to most people's attention, we were far enough into the election cycle that the the judicial system quickly decided to handwave away the insurrection clause and toss it in the trash. You don't simply choose not to enforce the Constitution simply because the guy is running for president and happens to be stupidly popular (with idiots). But that's exactly what happened.

[roamer65]

61. I agree.

[walkingman]

3. Thanks - I hope that comes to pass. It will be nice to know more people do not approve of him.

[msongs]

4. 3 elections in a row - WI, MI, and PA. total winning vote across the 3 not even 200K

[kelly1mm]

5. So far President Trump is winning about 40% of the votes in CA. If that continues he will get

about 3.6M of those outstanding votes and be the popular vote winner by about 1.1M votes .....

[W_HAMILTON]

8. He's winning at that level right now because the more Democratic mail-in votes haven't been received/counted yet.......

And there are other more Democratic friendly states that are in the same situation.

Around this time in 2020, I think Biden was winning the popular vote by around two or three million -- he ended up winning by over seven million.

[kelly1mm]

14. Given all we know about the 2024 election so far, particularly the significantly increased early/absentee

voting by R's this cycle compared to last, I seriously doubt he will stay under 21-22% of the outstanding ballets, which is what would need to happen for the OP's prediction to come true.

[W_HAMILTON]

15. Republicans still mostly voted in-person -- not by mail -- even when early voting.

Most of those votes are already included in the totals since they have been available, but later-arriving mail-in ballots (that will assuredly be much more heavily Democratic than the electorate as a whole) have not.

Right now the difference in the popular vote is just over four million. While completely flipping it would probably be difficult giving the number, it will assuredly get much, much, much closer than where it stands now. Does that mean less than a million or even flipping to Kamala? I don't know, but the point is that it's pointless to focus on the popular vote right now when literally millions and millions are still left to be added to those totals.

[kelly1mm]

17. On that we agree! We can wait a few days to see who the popular vote winner is. Especially since

it doesn't matter at all in our system.

[W_HAMILTON]

21. It will be more than few days, if previous elections were any indication.

Some totals won't be finalized until right before certification, which usually happens by December in most states, I believe.

[onecaliberal]

27. This. The rapist will not win the popular vote.

[DEM1955]

13. False!

No way 40% of CA voted for him.

[kelly1mm]

16. You are correct! My bad! He is only at 39.8% with almost 60% of the vote in. My prediction is he

ends up with 35-37% of the CA votes.

Still won't be enough to change the national popular vote winner which will be President Trump.

[DEM1955]

20. WTF

Who are all the dingbats that think he is so popular?

Popular vote = trump? Bullshit!!!

[kelly1mm]

22. The popular vote winner is meaningless in our system. Ask Hillery Clinton if you are not

sure. I am fine waiting for a few days for the CA votes to be counted to determine who, in fact is the popular vote winner, especially since it is little more than a trivia point ......

[Blue_Roses]

32. Him NOT getting the popular

vote is one less thing he can brag about (even though he will) and one more thing we can feel good about. Kamala deserves this and I say, "California take as much time as you need to get your votes right! And thank-you!"

[kelly1mm]

37. Well that certainly would be a pleasant surprise! We will see eventually how it shakes out. nt

[yaesu]

25. dictator tRump, not president, you already lost the argument. nt

[kelly1mm]

30. Ok sure I have. All former Presidents have been referred to by the honorific 'President' nt

[marybourg]

50. His behavior has shown that he is not

worthy of that, or any other honorific.

[kelly1mm]

56. I disagree. Just like President Biden invited President Trump to the White House and VP Harris

stated that she will fully support the peaceful transfer of power to President Trump, this is the norms of small D democracy.

[Galraedia]

41. Right now he's at 39.8% and dropping.

The amount of votes Trump has gotten across the country is consistent with the votes he received in 2020. So if Trump receives the same 6 million votes he received last time in California, that's only 2 million of the 9 million remaining.

[kelly1mm]

42. We shall see soon enough. While President Trump is hitting his 2020 raw number

totals, VP Harris is way underperforming President Biden's raw numbers. If that trend continues she will get less than 7M of those outstanding votes.

In any event we will see in relatively short order. My prediction is that President Trump at the end will have 35-37% of the CA votes.

[TomSlick]

6. May it be so.

[Polybius]

7. You only think Trump is getting 2 million votes out of 9 million left?

Cali is liberal, but not THAT liberal. Harris is winning CA right now by 58-40. Let's assume those 9 million outstanding votes are the same. That means Harris wins 5.22 million more votes, and Trump 3.6 million. Far more than 2 million.

[jfz9580m]

12. That would be disappointing.nt

[W_HAMILTON]

19. California is at 58%/40% now and the majority of the ballots still remaining will tilt heavily Democratic.

That means that his number will inevitably go down -- potentially by quite a bit. 2-to-1 Kamala is certainly very much within the realm of possibility -- especially if anyone remembers this time in 2020, when even Republicans were still using mail-in ballots due to the pandemic -- which would net her about three million votes right there (assuming the ~nine million outstanding mentioned earlier is accurate). That would leave about one million votes left to flip everything, but there are other states that are in the same situation, so it's certainly not impossible.

[Polybius]

26. Is 2-1 even enough though?

I'm seeing that it might have to be closer to 3-1. Besides the 9 million left in CA, how many combined are left in the other states?

[W_HAMILTON]

31. 18 states + DC will accept and count a mailed ballot if it is postmarked by, but received after, Election Day.

[Polybius]

34. Gotcha, so we probably won't know until next week or so

Longer maybe.

[dpibel]

54. You try so hard!!

But I give you credit for a qualified retraction of your earlier scornful certainty.

[Polybius]

63. Thanks?

[Galraedia]

44. Trump got no more than 6 million in 2020 and the votes for him are pretty consistant as they were in 2020

If republicans are leaving California as much as they claim they the votes for him should actually be even lower than that. I'm going to say that their consistent and if they are she would be ahead in the popular vote.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

45. What's left is more blue bur not that much more blue.

He will net around 3,400,000 to 3,600,000 more votes if there are 9,000,000 votes left

[jfz9580m]

9. I really hope so

It is a metric worth watching. Thanks for reminding me of it Galraedia.

Any idea when all the votes will have been counted and also a few different reliable sources can for tracking that?

[ecstatic]

11. if he loses the popular vote, will it matter? The media has already gone on for days

about how trump swept it all. yada yada

To answer my own question, yes! But the narrative has already been set.

[peacebuzzard]

28. well that is fake news then. I wondered how the hell Dump won popular vote.

No way.
On election night the bubble head announcers stated Dump had the popular vote.
That is misleading information.
Another bubble head stated people in CA and NY don't vote anymore because of the electoral votes.

Millions just sit home and do not vote?
Certainly not in California or New York.

[LiberalFighter]

18. Getting the low popular vote is not a mandate

[Zeitghost]

23. Not gonna happen

If the rest of the votes follow the same state wide percentages, once counted he will win 78M-75M.

[Diraven]

24. But, but

Republicans on TV today are all saying he won in a landslide and now has a mandate.

[LudwigPastorius]

29. "...it's dishonest for certain media...to claim that Trump has a mandate..."

I really can't see getting worked up about what the media says, because it doesn't matter one bit whether Trump has a public mandate.

He has the Senate, the Supreme Court, and most likely the House, he doesn't need popular support to ram through his heinous agenda.

This is like getting upset that a reporter got the number of assailants wrong in a story about how your family was killed by terrorists.

[Xavier Breath]

36. And he'll say he has it regardless, and the media won't call him on it anyway.

[Galraedia]

38. Yeah but he does need to convince everyone that it's the will of the people.

What other purpose does it serve to announce that Trump has won the popular vote before all votes have been counted than to demoralize the democratic opposition? Yesterday they claimed she lost by as much as 14 million, much higher than the 8 million Trump lost to Biden in 2020. Today that number is around 4 million and getting smaller. You either educate people with facts or allow the opposition to fill their head with propaganda.

[roamer65]

35. The fact that we are even debating this means the EC needs to be abolished.

Or we let large states like CA or NY out of the union if they desire it.

It is extremely unfair to them.

[happybird]

43. Out of the seven times I've voted in a Presidential election

Twice my vote didn’t matter (Al Gore and Hillary Clinton). If Kamala Harris ends up winning the popular vote that will be three times.

I’ve tried not to think about it too much over the years because it makes me angry and I am a master at ignoring things that upset me (not healthy, but it is what it is). I wanted to believe we have a good and functional system, that We the People have a real voice. But, I’m thinking about it now and it finally occurred to me: no wonder so many people my age and younger don’t bother to vote. They saw those times the EC overrode the popular vote, too.

I’ve tried to remain pragmatic and relatively positive these past two days. Maybe it’s still the numbness of being in shock, or the grief process taking it’s course.

If she ends up winning the popular vote it’s going to throw me over the edge into incandescent rage.

[markodochartaigh]

39. If he doesn't win the popular vote then

he will have been electored same as last time.

[onenote]

40. Your assumptions and math are incorrect.

First, NBC currently projects that the number of uncounted votes in California is 6,229,000. But even if it was 9 million and even if Harris was to get the same percentage of those ballots that Biden received in California in 2020, namely 63.48, she would get around 5.7 million votes and if Trump got the same percentage as he received in 2020, namely 34.32, he would get around 3.1 million votes. That would give Harris a net gain of 2.6 millions, which would cut Trump's margin, but not by nearly enough to overcome his current lead in California. And the fact is that Harris thus far is getting a significantly smaller percentage of the votes than Biden received (57..6% v 63.48%) and Trump is doing considerably better than he did in 2020 (39.8 percent v. 34.32 percent).

Bottom line, the final numbers aren't in and it is very likely that when they are, Trump's lead over Harris in California and nationally will have shrunk somewhat. But the chances that she will overtake him, while not mathematically impossible, are quite slim at this point.

[FBaggins]

59. It's an interesting psychological phenomenon

When we don’t understand a thing - we assume that nobody else understands it either and we are free to imagine a reality that confirms our own biases.

In the real world… there are people who do understand that thing. They know how many ballots are outstanding because the states and counties reported that data. They know how similar votes trended four and eight years ago and how this year’s data compares. Their projections have margins of error that can make the difference in close elections, but nowhere near large enough to support this fantasy.

“It looked like controlled demolition to me!!!”

[Galraedia]

62. No, NBC numbers are incorrect.

They're claiming 65.7 % of the votes in California have been counted when it's actually 59%. You can check for yourself that the reported number of votes for each candidate has not gone up despite the percentage they're claiming has been counted increasing. That is literally not possible.

[MomInTheCrowd]

46. Sick feeling.... It was stolen... the whole GD thing

I hope Greg Palast can prove it. …

[proud patriot]

52. the purges

I have a lot of questions about it .. it just stinks to high heaven

I hope we get the answers

[mopinko]

64. iirc stacy abrams did an analysis and came up w a number of votes that were suppressed in her 2nd race.

enough to tip the election, i think.
i hope all those lawyers who were lined up have not gone home yet.

[BigDemVoter]

47. You are REALLY helping my depressed

mood today, Galraedia, I am grateful. It is already so awful, and to think a majority voted for this vile pig would be too much to bear.

[DonCoquixote]

48. if we need to rebuild america in a 2.0 fashion

We need to get rid of the electoral college, period.

[Kaleva]

51. With Republicans controlling a majority of state legislatures

that isn't going to happen

[SunSeeker]

49. Washington State and DC are still counting too. That's another approx. 350,000 votes for Harris. nt

[AZLD4Candidate]

53. popular vote means nothing. how many EVs will flip?

[GreenWave]

60. Like it or not, for some bizarrely not, the gap is closing.

A pyrrhic victory to be sure. Oops I just used one of them there big words not used on Fox.

[Jack Valentino]

65. They'll just think you meant to say "penis", and open another bag of Doritos...