This may be the game plan.

[Qutzupalotl]

Rick Wilson retweeted this and it scared the shit out of me…but I could not find the lie. I am also posting the author's advice on how to navigate a potential crisis.

Link to tweet

Link to tweet

The global economy is about to be fucked up in ways that will have economists and historians studying the aftermath for generations to come. People have no idea. Those with savings and equities are most at risk.

The combination of failure to pass an Omnibus, likely US debt default, and shunting US Treasury assets into a “strategic bitcoin reserve,” and totally unregulated Ponzi crypto asset bubbles is a recipe for destruction of US and EU. The dollar will become worthless.

This sets up a zero sum game, to steal assets from those who have them now, and give them to people who hold play crypto assets. This paper explains how. Warning: requires reading, not just vibes, to understand.

The distributional consequences of Bitcoin
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4985877

The only thing that can possibly stop this is a critical mass of Republicans breaking with the Freedom Caucus cult and threatening their peers with stark consequences. But that’s unlikely, and they don’t have much leverage.

————-

MANAGING FINANCIAL INSTABILITY IN 2025

The incoming Trump/Vance administration has the potential to unleash widespread economic harms, many of which are not on people’s radar. This document is not financial advice and I am not a financial advisor. I am an analyst of history and warfare, and this is an analysis of current warfare operations.

1. We assess that the Presidency has been captured by Vladimir Putin. Until we see proof otherwise, assume that Elon Musk, Donald Trump, and JD Vance are proxies for Putin, Xi, and their allies.

2. Russia’s strategic goal is to dismantle the United States. They will pursue this primarily through trying to destroy the dollar and by “ending” the Federal Reserve. In addition, they have been backing secessionist movements in multiple states and may try to capture Alaska.

3. Russia believes that democracy doesn’t work.[1] Because they think democracies don’t work, they believe they can be defeated and captured. The United States is the biggest prize. Canada and Europe are up next.

4. Bitcoin is a weapon.[2] Bitcoin sets up a zero-sum game between holders and non-holders, enhancing holders’ purchasing power while eroding the dollar and the purchasing power of non-holders. People who do not hold Bitcoin (or derivatives) will be impoverished at the expense of people who do. It is impossible to hedge by buying Bitcoin without eroding the value of dollar holdings. Importantly, Bitcoin is a Ponzi scheme that harms non-participants — i.e. it’s not enough to avoid it, and you can’t just ignore it. It must be destroyed. Republicans are now promoting Bitcoin, and the creation of a “U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve,” which is intended to set off a vicious cycle that will spike the price of Bitcoin while undermining the dollar. This will prove ruinous.

5. Christian Nationalists also believe the dollar and the Fed must be destroyed.[3] Elon Musk has indicated he would bring Ron Paul into his government efficiency effort. Ron Paul and Gary North created the “North/Paul” strategy decades ago with the express intent of crashing the US economy, killing the dollar, and replacing it with gold-backed money. This plan is also compatible with crypto and BRICS based schemes. Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY) also introduced the Federal Reserve Board Abolition Act in May 2024 to “End the Fed.”

IMMEDIATE FINANCIAL RISKS

1. There are indications that a 2025 budget will simply not be passed. The “secret” between Trump and Johnson may be that Johnson simply will not present a budget bill for floor vote. If that happens, the US federal government will shut down until such time as some resolution is reached.

2. Musk and Johnson may propose massive cuts to the budget. Musk has been talking about imposing $2 Trillion in cuts to the ~$6 Trillion budget. Only 26% of the budget (about $1.6 Trillion) is discretionary spending. So Musk is talking about eliminating over 100% of the discretionary budget — all of it, and then some.

3. The risk of US debt default will be used as leverage to extract draconian cuts. If no budget is passed and/or the debt ceiling is not increased, the US may default on its debt, which would trigger a ~$15 Trillion global economic meltdown. Even flirting with default may trigger a downgrade of US creditworthiness, increasing interest costs and accelerating a crisis.

4. The establishment of a strategic Bitcoin reserve may trigger additional instability. Sen. Cynthia Lummis (R-WY) has proposed the creation of a “strategic Bitcoin reserve,” directing US treasury funds into Bitcoin. This will cause a Bitcoin price hike, enrich speculators, while simultaneously undermining equities and the dollar.

JANUARY 2025 TIMELINE

The most dangerous period will be the first six months of 2025, which is when the budget and debt ceiling issues must be addressed. The government runs out of money on January 2. The new Congress will be installed January 3. If no budget or debt ceiling bill is passed by January 2, Secretary Yellen will need to invoke “extraordinary measures” to limit cash expenditures through January 20. Then, a new acting Treasury secretary (possibly Vivek Ramaswamy, or another extremist) may be installed as soon as January 21. They would then need to oversee Treasury expenditures until the “X-Date” (the actual date of US default, likely in Spring 2025) and give Congress accurate information about status and risks. In the event that no resolution is reached, default will likely occur around May 2025, triggering a global asset meltdown.

POTENTIAL MITIGATORY AND DEFENSIVE MEASURES

1. Diversify holdings. Given the threat landscape, it is difficult to know what might happen. A diversified portfolio is a good defense, including bonds, real estate, and some gold and silver ETF’s. Use caution not to incur tax costs while rebalancing; use tax advantaged accounts where appropriate to shift allocations. Share these concerns with your financial advisors.

2. Do not hedge with Bitcoin or crypto assets. While this might be tempting, it is important to understand that Bitcoin and “real economy” assets are opposed in a zero-sum game. Every asset in Bitcoin harms all your other assets, while helping speculators.

3. Contact your representatives. Defeating Putin and his allies requires that traditional conservative Republicans break with the House Freedom Caucus and any extremist allies. Help your representatives understand these risks. Many simply do not.

This is a living document. Check back for updates. Have tips? Email Dave Troy or contact me on Signal at davetroy.69.

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1iwjijEK_6oyN4hV2QahTN0pHcztDNjX5GeeUqWBq_Rw/mobilebasic

[lapfog_1]

1. This is entirely possible... maybe even likley.

God help us all ( and I am an atheist ).

[Qutzupalotl]

4. One obstacle would be removing Powell as Fed Chair.

Powell says he would not leave if Trump tried to fire him, because he does not have thee authority, which is true.
https://www.cnn.com/2018/12/22/politics/trump-jerome-powell-fire-interest-rate-hike/index.html

[Irish_Dem]

28. If Trump wants him gone, he will be gone.

Trump will change the locks on his door and have federal officers escort him off the premises.
Show him a restraining order that he will be jailed if he shows up on the premises again.

[Fiendish Thingy]

2. Kooky nonsense with the barest of threads to reality

I don’t doubt the crypto bros would love to do this, but even a whisper of this seriously happening would put the markets into a tailspin, and Jamie Dimon in the Oval Office hoisting Trump up by the lapels threatening him with instant impeachment- remember, if the dollar becomes worthless there will be no contributions to politicians, and the pitchforks and torches will be in the streets.

The bigger risk will be when Powell’s term ends in 2026, IMO.

[msongs]

3. everything the nazis in germany did was legal when they did it nt

[Fiendish Thingy]

6. Apples to Oranges

I never said it was illegal, I asserted the financiers won’t stand for it.

[lostnfound]

12. There's a reason that private equity and REITs have grown so much

Also some people benefit from the shock doctrine

[misanthrope]

8. Your points are salient

Last edited Sat Nov 9, 2024, 12:49 PM - Edit history (1)

but what makes people believe stuff like this is cryptocurrency's nefarious tinge since it first emerged. It was obvious from the beginning that it was a method for facilitating the vilest of crimes. It was also easy to see how it could be used to devalue national currencies and when I saw the glee with which libertarians embraced it, I knew my suspicions were correct.

[Fiendish Thingy]

14. If all currencies become valueless, so does crypto. Nt

[misanthrope]

19. I was unclear

I didn’t mean all national currencies simultaneously and I didn’t mean completely eradicate all value.

Libertarians strike me as being driven by a deep, irrational hatred for government. They seem to want chaos and destruction for selfish or emotionally stunted reasons.

[Fiendish Thingy]

20. if the US dollar collapses, what currency will crypto be based on - the ruble? Chinese remenbi? Euro?

That's why I think both the US and global financial power brokers will fight tooth and nail against backing US treasuries with crypto.

While the libertarian tech bro oligarchs may seek destabilization and chaos out of curiosity, your bread and butter hedge fund manager isn't likely to be interested in such creative destruction. I don't see Goldman Sachs, et al, going along with the scheme.

[Qutzupalotl]

22. The danger is if a cryptocurrency replaces the dollar.

Then it is based on itself, i.e. nothing.

I agree there will be a lot of resistance. Powell for one. But Elon has Trump's ear, and sides with Ron Paul on ending the Fed. That is something to watch for if there is brinksmanship around the budget, as there often is under Democratic administrations. If they win the House, they would still need a crisis to push through something this catastrophic.

I am not saying it's a smart plan or that it will succeed, and neither does the author. But cryptocurrency is a clear and present danger to the dollar, and its rise does weaken it. So this is something to watch for, which is why I posted it.

[2naSalit]

5. That's what I've been expecting...

Quite frankly. There was no other purpose in creating and alternative currency but to take away the meaning of money to the poor. Only the wealthy have access to crypto and that was the whole purpose.

So, how can we make crypto worthless?

[Dem4life1234]

7. Lord have mercy!

What have we gotten into?


Where's a massive asteroid to do the work?

[markodochartaigh]

9. It's possible.

One thing I found to be incorrect though. "Those with savings and equities are most at risk."
Those most at risk are the poor. Those without any appreciable assets. Half of the US cannot afford a one thousand dollar expense. Of course these people are invisible to people like this author.


One point rings obviously true. A budgetary crisis. How stupid were the people of the US to give the government over to the party which continually provokes budgetary crises.

[Fiendish Thingy]

15. They only provoke budgetary crises when Dems hold the WH

Otherwise they lift the debt ceiling without much fuss most times.

We’ll see if Elon’s draconian cuts make it to a floor vote.

[calimary]

25. Hmmmmm ... sounds like the makings of a good "ask" in the new year!

Just making a note to myself.

Come January, my Indivisible group will return to weekly memos to our members. Most recently we cut back from five asks per week to three. Not enough writers, mainly. I’m hoping that’ll change with the new year. After all, it’s hard to imagine that the donald won’t be generating LOTS of usable material to write about.

[Irish_Dem]

29. This time it is a crime syndicate in charge.

Not just causing a budget crisis, but determined to destroy the federal government and steal the budget.

[KS Toronado]

10. I'm almost speechless, Biden has to be aware of this

With TSF wanting Musk on board this could happen, wish Biden could find a way to keep tRump & Co
out of office.

[Fiendish Thingy]

16. Don't fall for this nonsense

If the dollar becomes worthless, how does Musk sell Teslas?

How does he pay his Starlink and rocket staff?

How do they pay for food and shelter, along with the rest of us?

How would Musk pay his security staff who would keep him safe from the torches and pitchforks of the people?

[Qutzupalotl]

24. Why, with cryptocurrency, of course.

If it replaces the dollar, that is the new currency. In Elon's mind, that makes sense and is a simple task.

Of course reality will be different, but that does not mean he won't try, or that we should ignore his statements of intent.

[58Sunliner]

26. Nobody said they were smart, just utterly vile.

[JI7]

11. So where do they stand ? I'm guessing that Wiles person and Vance are on the same side

where it's more about tax cuts and other shit for the wealthy .

And then there are those like Musk .

With Trump it's whoever kisses his ass the most or has the biggest bribe.

[Blue Full Moon]

13. They spent millions and Musk & Moreno are driving this

[Metaphorical]

17. Crypto Won't Happen

The Tech Bros are fooling themselves.

The Federal Reserve looked hard at crypto for quite some time, and came away with the conclusion that it is both too volatile and too easy to corrupt. Similarly, if they were to go that route, they would create a US e-currency that would very quickly crowd out BTC and ETH, rendering them little more than a bad joke. The tech bros are not going to get the dollar concession, period.

As to Johnson - yes, I've considered that possibility as well. However, the House is not yet in Republican hands, and while it likely will be, the margin is going to be paper thin, especially since the outstanding races are all in purple areas that could go blue (it could end up being 217-215 R, or even 217-215 D). This is going to be very hard for Trump to get ANY legislation through. Trump can declare anything he wants (and no doubt he will try to run by executive order) but getting past the House is likely to be the hurdle he'll hit frequently. What's more, even a couple of defections to the Ds could shift power to the Democrats), and we are frankly not in any mood to help the Republicans OR Johnson at this point.

[Buckeyeblue]

18. This would immediately trigger the worst global depression ever

Big banks would fail. The FDIC would not be able to cover all of the losses. There would be tremendous unemployment. At that point people would revolt.

Also, logically, if only bitcoin holders are keeping bitcoin propped up, the center implodes pretty quickly, because there is nothing real to back bitcoin. It's numbers on a page. I get It's a little more than that. But not much

[Kid Berwyn]

21. Oh. So THIS is what Musk meant...

…about “temporary hardship.”

https://www.vox.com/politics/381637/elon-musk-donald-trump-2024-election-temporary-hardship

America is about to experience serious buyer’s remorse.

[Qutzupalotl]

23. Yes, it lines up with his recent public statements,

“cryptic” as they are.

Musk is clearly insane, maybe even more so than Trump. Wormbrain may be the sanest of the three, God help us.

I am hoping this plan never goes anywhere, but if you see a crypto push from this administration, raise hell with your representative, especially if it's a Republican.

[OrlandoDem2]

27. This is so far-fetched that

it might happen.

The French nobility and king didn’t see the revolution coming.

They didnt see Napoleon.

Russian nobility didn’t see the revolution there.

WWI really shouldn’t have happened.

No one foresaw the Depression. It was out of nowhere.

How could anyone predict the Nazis?

The Great Leap Forward and Cultural Revolution were insane plans.

I am to the point where I honestly believe something will happen that comes from nowhere and nobody expects. It’s going to plunge the world into crisis.

When? No idea. But I have a bad feeling.

[usonian]

30. One can hope that enough rich folks are not on board with this tech wizardry,

will call in their ownage of legislators and stall it out.

TBD