General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsSo right now the stock market is going crazy. How long is it anticipated to last before the bottom drops out?
Do we have any Financial wizards here in DU who can make a prediction for us naive in financial markets? As a retired federal employee I have a sizable Thrift Savings Plan (TSP) account I’d like to try and protect against another 2008 crash!
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Prairie Gates
(3,600 posts)Don't seek financial advice on an Internet message board. If you're concerned, go talk to a professional advisor.
Jmb 4 Harris-Walz
(1,049 posts)action based only on info from a message board. Having said that, I’ve come to trust info more here than on any other message board. Got some great health care advise a few days ago! Which I’ve since confirmed with official government sources that are still reliable under Biden. I’m definitely Democratic in regards to politics but am very conservative when it come to things like money… measure twice, thrice, etc., cut once kinda gal.
Prairie Gates
(3,600 posts)Jmb 4 Harris-Walz
(1,049 posts)
DFW
(56,934 posts)I had my meager stock portfolio parked with Smith Barney (now Morgan Stanley) when I moved to Germany. In the last 15 years, when Texas Instruments crashed from $87 to $20 during the Cheney-Bush crash, I called Morgan Stanley and asked if maybe I shouldn’t use some of my savings and buy another 1000 shares at $20? They said, “no way! You already own some, so you’d be putting too many eggs into one basket!” That $20,000 investment would now be worth $218,000. I didn’t do it although my inner instinct said DO IT! In 1998, i bought 500 shares of Apple at $38. It split a few times and went up, and after a few years, I had 2000 shares that went to $200. Morgan Stanley actually called me in Germany to tell me that Apple was in trouble, and I should bail if it went below $190. My inner instinct again said No! But they were the professionals, so I reluctantly went along. It hit $189, and they sold me out. It went back up—WAY back up, and the $378,000 I got (minus capital gains taxes) would have been worth about $3 million today. Again, minus capital gains taxes, but I think I would be sitting pretty with my net after-tax $2.4 million that I’ll never see because I went with the advice of a seasoned “professional” instead of my own gut instinct. The more a “professional” touts his credentials these days, the less likely I am to believe him.
Jmb 4 Harris-Walz
(1,049 posts)DFW
(56,934 posts)They can keep watch, but are not allowed to contact me EVER with buy or sell recommendations.
For that matter, I’m not sure if I ever bought or sold a share of stock since the Apple debacle. It has been way over 10 years, probably between 15 and 20. Spectator sport for me from then on.
gab13by13
(25,463 posts)and tax breaks for the rich.
Remember when they deregulated the banks? It took a while but that led to the housing/mortgage disaster.
andym
(5,735 posts)thanks to the actions of the Fed and Joe Biden. When/if Trump actually implements his tariffs for income tax plan is when the economy could collapse.
JohnSJ
(96,838 posts)he campaigned on.
Groundhawg
(1,024 posts)
elleng
(137,019 posts)I think it may take a long as it takes for some of his acts to take hold, so until end of 1st or 2d quarters. Some peeps may act in anticipation, of course.
Yavin4
(36,694 posts)I sold practically all of my investments, and I am now holding 99% cash. Why? There have always been a massive stock market crash under Republican presidents dating back to Reagan, and this one will be no different. In fact, it will probably be worse. There are so many ways that Trump can fuck things up that there's no way that I can feel safe in the markets. If I'm wrong, then fine. I can deal with being wrong.
If your savings is all in cash, you should be okay, but who knows with this clown show running things.
CousinIT
(10,540 posts)Jmb 4 Harris-Walz
(1,049 posts)Yavin4
(36,694 posts)I'm saying move your investments to cash within your 401K. Like a money market fund.
IA8IT
(5,939 posts)Berkshire Hathaway ($BRK.B) recently posted its Q3 results, shocking investors with its record cash position of $325 billion. This cash hoard is the result of Berkshire’s ongoing stock sales, likely due to Warren Buffett’s cautious stance on market valuations.
With stocks continuing to rally and President Trump’s re-election further boosting investor optimism, I think the Omaha-based conglomerate is an attractive choice for people who want to remain long in the market with a margin of safety.
DFW
(56,934 posts)In the late 1990s, he told me about Berkshire Hathaway, which I had never heard of. When he told me it was $33000 a share, I remarked, “and that would be why I have never heard of it.”
His instinct—he is NOT a professional financial advisor—and his successful ventures elsewhere enabled him to accumulate around 100 shares, which are now worth $690,000 a share (looks like $33,000 wasn’t so crazy after all). But, of course, who in 1997 had $3.3 million AND the guts to risk it on one stock? He actually would have LENT me the money to buy ten shares at the time. We are VERY good friends, obviously, and he adores my wife, who, by the way, was not available as collateral. But my conservative nature made me terrified of risking $330,000 I didn’t have on something I didn’t understand. Knowing how good his instinct was on everything else, I should have!! At least he always buys dinner when we meet up. I don’t even bother to protest for show.
Fiendish Thingy
(18,883 posts)We stayed invested in a diversified portfolio through the crashes of 1987, 2001, 2008, and COVID, and are enjoying a comfortable retirement. Our moderate risk portfolio has recovered after each crash and gone on to make healthy gains in the subsequent recovery.
If the market crashes and inflation skyrockets, you cash holdings will lose value every single day, and will never regain its original value, even if things stay stable. If the bull market continues, then your cash will buy less when you decide to get back in the market.
Disaffected
(5,193 posts)blind luck rather than astute buy or sell decisions.
Things to consider include, capital gains taxes and commissions payable when you sell and the difficulty of knowing what and when to buy back in.
It is by no means a foregone conclusion that the markets will crash due to a Trump presidency or any other factor for that matter.
DFW
(56,934 posts)Before I get started, we shouldn’t ever lose sight of the fact that all this talk of stock positions and portfolios go right over the heads of probably way more than half of our DU friends who will never have the “honor” of participating in such discussions from experience.
But back to the subject of diversification—part of no my job consists of traveling around and providing authentication on old gold coins of the world, including the USA. We minted hundreds of millions of them over the years, and making fakes is big business. I alone must have seen five million or more of them in the span of my career. I have been doing this for 49 years now, so I have put in my time. Every now and then, I see something impossibly cool, and try to buybit for my self. Not recently, with the gold price up at $2675 an ounce, but back in the days of $450 or $500, I could do that on a regular basis. It’s not going to provide me with a retirement in luxury, but when some pieces I bought on spec at $475, when I could, when I was half my current age, which is 72, can be sporadically sold off at six times what I paid back then, I think, it could have been worse.
WarGamer
(15,816 posts)I've always "bought the dip"
In addition to monthly contributions, I've added to my holdings when the market dips a few times per year.
gets my average cost down and increases my holdings.
Fiendish Thingy
(18,883 posts)New continuing budget resolution due in December, and debt ceiling expires again in January.
This record setting Bidenomics market is due for a correction of 10-15%, but I spoke to my financial advisor yesterday and he said it seems like this bull run still has a ways to go, and he doesn’t expect anything drastic in the near future, but volatility could be expected during the transition.
Hugin
(34,825 posts)Hugin
(34,825 posts)I really have no feel for where it’s going. Except that it’s going to be very very bad. Even cash and Treasuries are under pressure as the one-note crypto bros divert any value of anything into their monopoly money that nobody has or cares about.
I guess direct investment in the things people really need may be viable in the long term. Think Bear. Big time, Bear. Like no other Bear that’s ever been.
It has come into my mind over the last couple of days that, yes, the Dollar is a fiat currency. But, it’s value is really linked to a unit of labor instead of a metal. I suppose that’s been true since the Depression.
Yavin4
(36,694 posts)If Elon et al takes us off the dollar, then every asset that you own becomes worthless overnight including your home since it will be priced in crypto instead of dollars.
womanofthehills
(9,368 posts)I just have around $1000 of crypto just to figure out how it works. It’s kind of fun to play around with it.
Joinfortmill
(16,694 posts)Yavin4
(36,694 posts)He will be met with fierce institutional resistance because banks will lose money and power as well, but you never know.
WarGamer
(15,816 posts)After 2008 we were really overdue for one and then COVID hit but that was very short lived, technically only a 2 month recession...
IMHO... no matter who would have won in 24... recession in 25.
Joinfortmill
(16,694 posts)For the remaining assets, I'm staying the course with S&P 500 funds. Vanguard VFIAX and VBIAX (gives me some bonds). No international, which given our new reality, may be a bit riskier. But the S&P are the big boys and have a global presence. I'm a 75 yo woman. I don't use an advisor. Many are good, I know, but I had a bad experience. Best of luck.