BREAKING: CNN just announced that Janelle Bynum will win her critical race in OR - huge for Dems hoping to win the House

[Dennis Donovan]

Democratic Wins
BREAKING: CNN just announced that Janelle Bynum will win her critical race in Oregon. This is huge for Democrats and their hopes at winning the House majority.
11:59 AM · Nov 9, 2024

Link to tweet

[spooky3]

1. Great! Nt

[SheltieLover]

2. Awesome!!!

Ty for sharing!

[Dennis Donovan]

5. It's a longshot, but I pray we get the House.

It's our final hope the keep the Exec branch in check.

[SheltieLover]

6. Hold the vision!

[Dem4life1234]

3. So does that mean we got the House?

We need some checks and balances on this Thing.

[Dennis Donovan]

4. No

[GB_RN]

14. The Amount Of Red...

On that map is disturbing. A lot of it is gerrymandering, I know. But even so, that’s a shit ton of people who are voting against their own self interests.

A big problem for Democrats is issue framing. Republicans know how to make messages fit on a bumper sticker. Case in point, Cantaloupe Caligula the Corpulent’s yard signs with shit like “Trump/Low Taxes, Kamala/High Taxes”; “Trump/Security, Kamala/Crime”; “Trump/Secure Border, Kamala/Open Border.” People remember short bits like that, and 10 second sound bites. On the other hand, Democrats use $5000 words out of the Harvard Dictionary, and turn it into what…for all those red areas, comes across as a lecture. It’s worth remembering The KISS Principle also applies to campaigning.

[maxrandb]

20. It's a bullshit map that should be alerted as reich-wing propaganda promoting

The entire populations of Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, Arizona, Utah and North and South Dakota would barely fill up a 5 date Taylor Swift concert at the Sphere in Las Vegas.

[GB_RN]

21. That Map Is Reality, However.

We might not like it, but that’s the way every district voted. We can’t stick our heads in the sand and ignore it. Instead, we have to figure out how to fix what went wrong in this campaign.

My two cents.

[bsiebs]

24. As they say, dirt doesn't vote, people do...

[PortTack]

30. The amount of red reflects the sparsely populated areas. As has been said b4, ppl vote, not land

[GB_RN]

32. Yup.

And they voted. Our side? Not so much. Harris underperformed Biden in nearly every demographic, and had fewer overall votes than Biden’s 2020 victory. Cantaloupe Caligula actually improved his 2020 total, winning both the popular vote (along with more Hispanics and Black males) and Electoral College while he was at it.

Now, are we talking fairness due to the fucked up, stupid-assed idea of the Electoral College? If that’s the case, well, those small, red states aren’t going to give up their built in advantage.

Again, we have to find ways to fix what went wrong and bring back demographics that we lost/lost ground with.

[hootman]

36. I saw ALL those signs all over the place. You're right

[ColinC]

11. It means we will be close.

Decisiondesk forecast including called races is 212 to 216 with 7 tossups. 4 are almost certainly going to Dems which puts them at 216 to 216. If Dems win 2 out of Alaska, AZ6 and CO8, they win the house.

[Willis88]

25. These are the races we should be watching more

Literally the difference between a check and balance in government and dictatorship.

[Dem4life1234]

27. That's all I care about

As long as there are enough of Dems to check the thug.

[ColinC]

7. Late to the party. This was called by decision desk at least a day or two ago.

[Wiz Imp]

9. New York Times still hasn't called it.

[ColinC]

12. NYTimes calls way later than need be.

[Baitball Blogger]

10. Ssshh. We could use all the good news we can get, even if it's regurgitated.

[Wiz Imp]

8. That should be number 201 for Democrats to 212 for Republicans with 22 undecided

The last numbers I saw showed each party leading in 11 of the 22 undecided races. Democrats would have to win all 11 plus 6 more to win the majority. (Unlikely, but still possible). I think they are likely to win all or most of the 11 they lead. They trail 4 others by less than 1% plus in 2 other California races they trail by 3% with only about 60% counted.

So t's still a pretty big longshot but not out of the realm of possibilities.

[Jersey Devil]

13. Decision Desk has different numbers

208 Dem - 216 Rep (218 needed for a majority.

That would leave only 11 seats remaining
https://decisiondeskhq.com/results/2024/General/US-House/

[Wiz Imp]

22. The thng I don't like about that site is they don't show you just a list of uncalled races

I don't feel like taking the time to cross check with the NY Times so I don't know what the status of their 11 uncalled races are, but based on the projections, they're projecting Republicans win 4 of the last 11 races and Democrats win 7 for a final count of 220 to 215 in favor of Republicans. But they show the Dems with still an 18.2% chance of taking the house (which would mean winning 10 of the 11 uncalled) so that seems like better odds for Dems than I would expect.

[Ysabel]

16. I don't know / I thought those numbers had gone down a few...

but maybe not ??

- maybe I heard about those six needed for a majority and thought that was all...

[Wiz Imp]

19. I'm sure different outlets have different numbers depending on how confident enough they are to call a certain race

My numbers come from the NY Times.

[Ysabel]

15. Great!

Maybe we will take the House after all / there are some others still out there who might or will win...

[Willis88]

26. I hope so!!

[DoBW]

17. I've been panning DU stream for gold today and you gave me a nugget

Last edited Sat Nov 9, 2024, 02:01 PM - Edit history (1)

love news like this, plus Rosen in Nevada

[Cha]

18. "Bynum flips Oregon House seat, will be state's first Black member of Congress"

DEM 176,649 47.7%

Lori Chavez-DeRemer *
GOP 167,189

Democrats were optimistic about Bynum’s chances of retaking the seat, pointing to her success against Chavez-DeRemer in two state legislature races. She beat out progressive Jamie McLeod-Skinner, last year’s Democratic nominee, in the primaries to win the party nod.

Establishment Democrats rallied around Bynum, with endorsements from Oregon Gov. Tina Kotek (D) and EMILY’s List, a group that had endorsed McLeod-Skinner two years earlier.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4969936-oregon-congressional-district-win/
Fuck the gop

[Native]

23. For those who don't know, this is Oregon's most high profile US house district, and Janelle flipped it.

[iluvtennis]

28. YASSS!

[TheRickles]

29. Here's a site that makes tracking easy, from The Guardian

Just hover over each district on the map to get the vote % and total numbers for each candidate, as well as the % of votes counted so far. The undecided districts are shaded lighter, easier to pick out from the races that are already decided. It was clear that this OR race was going Dem, but of the other remaining uncalled for races, too many are most likely going R. Not looking good....

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-interactive/2024/nov/08/us-house-senate-and-governor-elections-2024-results-from-all-50-states

[Captain Zero]

35. Nice that the Guardian does that, why not the DNC or DCCC?

WHY NOT. I GAVE MONEY TO THEM AND THEY CAN'T TRACK THE RACES?

or are small donors not privy to the counts after the election is over?

[Ping Tung]

31. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez WA 3 won by a whisker over a MAGAmacho

She just barely beat him in 22 after the MAGAs drove out a 5 term sure thing moderate Repub. It was very close both times. This is a purple district because much of it is rural.

[UTUSN]

33. Knr

[Pompoy]

34. Now that the Senate ir Republican, I want the House to be Republican. So, no excuses

Just until the midterms in two years. I don't want there to be an excuse for Trump that he was blocked by the Democrats from delivering on the economy, or his building, funding the wall.
Let's see him do as he did in his first term and just deliver the tax cuts as a priority, and nothing else.
It will be horrible for some issues, like in Ukraine, but they should have no illusions next time.
At least the ones who aren't hardcore.
And one thing we should give in on, is the border. We have to take that out of the equation. Let them see if that really would make their lives better. As long as he is the one in charge, the shame should be on him and them.
Of course we fight for every other issue that is important to us. Having a two seat advantage in the House won't be that much of a help.

[annielion]

37. Excellent News

This is a flip for the Democrats in the House (OR-05). The Cook Political Report listed this as one of the toss-up races. Also, WA-03 has been called for Perez. This was also listed as a toss-up race, although it is not a flip. I have found Cook Political Report to be a fairly reliable source of where each race stands.

https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/house-race-ratings