My current house outlook: 216 to 216 with 3 tossups

[ColinC]

Currently Democrats seem to be close to winning 216 house seats mostly through a California pathway. AK, AZ6 and CO8 are pure tossups. If Dems win two out of the remaining, they win the house by exactly 1 seat.

https://www.270towin.com/2024-election-results-live/house/

On edit: From LaurainLA -None of these races are a sure thing and they still need a lot of help to cure ballots. If you can assist, please check here for opportunities to do so:

https://www.fieldteam6.org/ballot-curing -- this lists everything across the country

[hootman]

1. Closest to an actual end to tis race I've seen so far. Thanks

[WhiteTara]

3. Welcome to DU

I joined after *co took us to war in Iraq, today is 100x scarier. This is a haven from the storm.

[dweller]

2. Nail biter

and I’m down to my 2nd knuckle

🫤


✌🏻

[jimfields33]

4. 208-216 according to your link.

[ColinC]

6. 212 to 216 in forecasted races. My outlook is based on theirs

But also the fact the remaining california races will likely go Dem (putting it at 216). They are all close enough that the remaining mail will probably assure the dem wins.

[in2herbs]

5. In one way I truly hope the Ds take the House. In another way, if the Rs have a trifecta

the democrats can't be blamed for anything, unless some Ds vote with the Rs on some issues, which will likely happen.

[hootman]

27. Exactly. nt

[moonscape]

32. There will be plenty of agony to hang on them, we

need a smidge of control somewhere! Nobody will blame the House for what’s coming down. If people were that informed this election would have been a blow-out for us!

[Polybius]

7. Here's what I'm seeing from the data:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/11/06/us/elections/results-house-races-tracker.html

Republicans: 212
Democrats: 200
Uncalled: 23

Of the 23 uncalled, Republicans are leading in 11, while Democrats are leading in 12. So if it stays exactly like that, it will end up like this:

Republicans: 223
Democrats: 212

[ColinC]

8. It wont stay that way. California late counts usually close the gap significantly.

All or most of the California seats will go Dem. At least 3 out of four including Adam Gray's seat. I think worst case for Dems is 215 seats. But depending on how CO8, AZ6 and AK go, it could be up to 219.

Mike Garcia (CA27)is basically done. I think we can safely count that towards Dems side and officially put them at 213. (He's ahead by .4 but the next batch will put Whitesides ahead).

The rest are all within 3 points which I think will put the Dems narrowly over the top with the remaining mail (maybe 20k or so per district?)

[Polybius]

9. You've become one of my favorite posters since Brooklynite's been gone

However, with that being said, I think you're too optimistic at times. I don't see much of a path for winning the House, but if I'm wrong I'll come back in here and say it.

[ColinC]

10. Aw thank you Polybius!!! Thats an honor coming from you!

I absolutely agree. I obviously got super carried away in the run up to the election and the results were... sobering to say the least.

But my count is mostly based on decision desk projections. I also have a lot of experience watching the late mail count in California (specifically my old district CA27). Still I admit I can't help myself in being at minimum, optimistic bordering on delusion -or just pure delusional at many times. 😂

But again thank you for the kind words!

[Dem4life1234]

11. Would it be enough to stem the bleeding?

[Wiz Imp]

12. You're being overly optimistic.

It is enormously unlikely that Dems win all uncalled California races. (I've listed the Republican candidate for all these where they lead)

CA-45 Steel leads by almost 8000 votes with 79% counted.
CA-41 Calvert leads by over 7000 votes with 75% counted
CA-13 Duarte leads by over 3000 votes with 62% counted
CA-27 Garcia leads by about 1000 votes with 81% counted

It's very highly unlikely that Dems can make up the deficits in CA-45 & CA-41. CA-13 is a longshot as well. The only one of these that looks like a decent shot is CA-27

The others:
AK-AL Begich leads by over 7000 with 74% counted (Does not look good at all)
AZ-6 Ciscomani leads by about 1800 with 83% counted. (Maybe? probably not)
CO-8 Evans leads by about 2000 with 90% counted (not likely)

Until they're all called, Dems technically still have a shot at all of these but it will take a likely miracle to pull out at least 6 of them which is what is needed to take control. (Given that 3 of them have margins over 7000 with at least 74% counted).

[ColinC]

13. I think CA late mail ballots(the only votes left) are close to 80%

As they have historically been. That will make Whitesides victory fairly decisive, and give narrow leads to the rest of the CA Dems that weren't called.

[Wiz Imp]

14. I hope you're right, but I'm very skeptical of CA-41 & CA-45

And I'm pretty sure the Alaska seat is lost.

[ColinC]

15. Not as optimistic about alaska unless the gap closes by 2% at least

She wouldneed nearly all of the 2nd choice votes, which I don't think is as likely

[Wiz Imp]

33. Just checked for an update

CA-45 Democrat Derek Tran cut about 1000 votes off the lead with 3% more counted, so it is at least moving in the right direction. The margin is now just under 7000 votes with 18% left to count

CA-41 Democrat Will Rollins unfortunately has fallen about 1000 votes further behind. The margin is now just under 8000 votes with 20% left to count.

CA-27 flipped to a Dem lead so that one is looking good

CA-13 has shown no movement since yesterday.

[ColinC]

34. Ca 13 is counting as slow as humanly possible. Did you catch where the remaining votes for the Calvert Rollins race are

I think Tran will win and as said earlier am optimistic about Rollins. Whitesides is a done deal as far as I'm concerned. I think most of the remaining vote is from around Santa Clarita.

[Wiz Imp]

36. No. I didn't pay attention to where the remaining votes are.

When I checked the Colorado race, it looked like there was still a small number of votes left to count but it seemed unlikely to change the outcome

[ColinC]

39. Yea Colorados over barring a miracle.

I think CA13 is likely Dem based on the remaining votes.

[ColinC]

35. Also looks like CO8 is finished and Rs win. I dont see any way we pull that off with most votes

Coming in from a republican stronghold (unless all the remaining votes just happen to be Dem which I guess is possible).

AZ6 is still a complete dead heat. Almost as many votes remaining in Phoenix suburbs as the more rural part of the district.

[ColinC]

37. Re CA13

Most count is from Merced and Stanislaus county. Stanislaus has trended Democratic lately, and I'm confident those will come in strong fro Gray. Most of the reddest parts of the district seems to have more of their votes in.

[Wiz Imp]

40. That sounds hopeful. I'm still skeptical of CA41, but it sounds like you know the district & history much better than me

[ColinC]

41. I was a political organizer there a long time ago... its mostly Modesto suburbs

At leat Stanislaus. Merced is a college town, so that county would be mostly college suburbs.

[ColinC]

42. Both Merced and Stanislaus actually have big college towns

[ColinC]

38. Re CA41

I remember watching the count last time and seeing Will Rollins close the gap by like 5 points in the time between election day and the finished count overall. This of course didn't matter because i think he ended election day with about a 10 point deficit (going off my flawed memory)

[PhilosopherKing]

30. Where do you get the 80%?

Just curious.

[ColinC]

31. Honestly just ballpark based on seeing the counts so many times. Its generally pretty high though.

[LauraInLA]

17. Please sign on to ballot cure -- it is making a difference.

[Wiz Imp]

18. How? Where?

[LauraInLA]

19. https://www.fieldteam6.org/ballot-curing -- this lists everything across the country

[Wiz Imp]

20. Thanks!!

[LauraInLA]

21. I wish we could pin this somewhere highly visible -- I've sent EarlG a message.

[Wiz Imp]

22. Agreed. Pinning to make it visible to evryone would be great!

[LauraInLA]

16. I don't think we have CA in the bag for sure -- I've been screeching everywhere about phone banking for

ballot cures, and the Whitesides, Rollins, Min, Tran, etc. campaigns are taking it very seriously. Yes, we have quite a bit of time before CA races must be decided, but there is still a lot of work to be done. Please help, everybody!!!

[ColinC]

24. Can you share the best link to volunteer? I will put it in the OP :)

[LauraInLA]

28. https://www.fieldteam6.org/ballot-curing

[ColinC]

29. Thanks! I saw in your other post and updated my OP

[In It to Win It]

23. AZ-06 - I think the Republican is going to come out with the win

I hope I'm wrong, but that's where I'm leaning

[ColinC]

25. He seems to be breaking away a little bit, but still a lot to count. Hopefully we can pull it off!

[applegrove]

26. Please, please, please.