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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region Forums2024 polls were accurate but still underestimated Trump
https://abcnews.go.com/538/2024-polls-accurate-underestimated-trump/story?id=115652118This measure, which we call "statistical error," measures how far off the polls were in each state without regard for whether they systematically overestimated support for one candidate. And by this metric, state-level polling error in 2024 is actually the lowest it has been in at least 25 years. By comparison, state-level polls in 2016 and 2020 had an average error close to 4.7 percentage points. Even in 2012, which stands out as a good year for both polling and election forecasting, the polls missed election outcomes by 3.2 percentage points.
live love laugh
(14,552 posts)TheProle
(3,095 posts)live love laugh
(14,552 posts)The article says polls were accurate but underestimated Trump ....
Polls changed their methods away from phone calls to online polls and focus groups.
If a poll isnt random then how representative is it?
WarGamer
(15,749 posts)With the polls so close... if they're undercounting Trump support again... he wins big. I hope the pollsters are accounting for the Hidden Trump voter effect.
The bottom line is that the people who shouted down those posting polls, claiming the polls were a MSM manipulation to create the illusion of a horse race were not doing the party any favors.
orange jar
(878 posts)I'm not a polls truther or anything, but it's interesting how Trump has the unique effect of having a sizable number of "hidden" supporters that leads to polls underestimating his true support. Its like, people may consciously know that he's distasteful, crass, and a national embarrassment but they vote for him, for whatever reason, in secret because they're afraid of others knowing.
Not sure what that says about our current political environment, but I'm sure there's something there. I'm sure there have been political figures who have had a similar effect before ("embarrassed Nixon voters" comes to mind), but this seems like a fairly unique phenomenon.
I only wish more people had secretly voted for Harris. I can't tell if the lack of such is a good thing, a bad thing, or both. Maybe it says something about how Americans view her character; she wasn't off-putting enough for voters to feel embarrassed voting for her.
Cosmocat
(15,053 posts)That what the polls were showing (coin flip) was what I was seeing, and that many here were greatly under estimating his support.