California district 45 may flip blue, Dems to gain in the House

[usregimechange]

Last edited Sat Nov 16, 2024, 02:25 PM - Edit history (2)

Derek Tran, Esq., Army Veteran, Consumer Rights Attorney, City Commissioner, Small Business Owner, Husband, Dad, Proud Son of Refugees.

The Republican is now only 58 ahead with 90% reporting. This seat may flip blue giving Democrats the likelihood of gaining a House seat in this election and improving from the 118th Congress in the House of Representatives.



Here’s the breakdown of the House of Representatives in the 118th Congress by party:

Current Composition (118th Congress)

• Republicans: 222 seats
• Democrats: 213 seats

This total includes all 435 voting districts across the United States.

Hypothetical Scenario: Democrats Gain One Seat

If Democrats gain one seat in the next Congress (119th), the composition would be:
• Republicans: 221 seats
• Democrats: 214 seats

This would slightly narrow the Republican majority in the House but would not change which party holds control, as 218 seats are required for a majority.

[moonscape]

1. Most of the outstanding ballots

are from Orange County though, favoring R

[usregimechange]

2. It went from 250 or so to 58 from last night til now tho.

[W_HAMILTON]

3. Yep. Because Democrats were still more likely to vote by mail this election than Republicans.

[usregimechange]

4. Fingers crossed, we could use some good news!

[ColinC]

6. Its over. Its clear Tran won. Tuesday will confirm.

[usregimechange]

8. Because the remaining ballots were by mail?

[ColinC]

9. That and Steel is nearly losing Orange County anyways.

She has went from leading the OC by around 4 or 5%, to nearly losing the county entirely. The late returns of mail from the OC have been consistently 60-40 Tran or more. She would need a sudden 60/40 in her favor to basically not lose at this point, since LA also has a few more heavily Democratic batches that are likely to still come through.

[usregimechange]

10. Perfect can't wait to see it flip.

[moonscape]

11. Awesome! Huzzah!

[ColinC]

5. I already called this for Tran. Steel is toast.

[usregimechange]

7. Hell Yes!

[DeeDeeNY]

12. Does the 222 Republican seats include Gaetz and Stefanik?

Those seats probably won't flip anyway, but at least they will be vacant until they get filled by special elections.

[usregimechange]

14. That is correct, so a pretty skimpy majority.

[SleeplessinSoCal]

13. We've been experiencing moving districts.

We've been at the same address since 1998. Rohrabacher was our rep til 2018. Then we got Harley Rouda who was defeated in 2020 by Steel. Then we got Katie Porter (who opted to run in our district) and now State Senator Dave Min. Steel losing is a really good sign for the OC. Not as MAGA as I feared.

It appears Tran is going to win. I've tracked count every day and he has consistently pulled ahead. 34,000 ballots remain while being behind 58 is excellent news.

[usregimechange]

17. Good news!

[soandso]

15. Wow, talk about a close race

Michelle Steel *
GOP 152,415 50%
Derek Tran
DEM 152,357 50%
Total 304,772
93% Reporting

https://decisiondeskhq.com/results/2024/General/US-House/

[usregimechange]

16. I want to see more blue!

[usregimechange]

18. It just flipped blue!!!!

[Historic NY]

19. Are you counting the three Trump plucked for his administration?

[ColinC]

20. Slight correction. Dems have 214 including vacant D seats

Rs have 221. If they gain one seat, the composition would be 220 215 including any vacant R seats like Gaetz.