General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsWe lost because the incumbent president had a 39% approval rating and 70% of Americans felt we were on the wrong track.
Joe deserved a better approval rating but if he had an approval rating of fifty percent he could have been a classmate of Methusaleh and would have won. All other explanations are wanting. When people tell you we have to throw this group or that group under the bus to win don't believe them.AfternoonJoe
(5 posts)It's hard to run on a "change" platform when you're in the current administration. We knew she would represent real change but it was so difficult to message and so easy for the other side to message against that, i.e. "She was there for 3 1/2 years and did nothing...". It really comes down to these things.
DemocratSinceBirth
(100,361 posts)peregrinus
(409 posts)Is like taking a swig of milk from a carton. Having nasty spoiled rotten chunks pour into your mouth then putting the carton back in the refrigerator and deciding that maybe it will be better tomorrow.
Charging Triceratops
(367 posts)And spending of ridiculous ads like "anti-trans" ads made more noise than ANY of Felon-47's criminal, traitorous malfeasance.
InAbLuEsTaTe
(24,670 posts)Nimble_Idea
(2,476 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(100,361 posts)Are we or are we not part of a beloved community?
BeyondGeography
(40,068 posts)Autumn
(46,667 posts)whopis01
(3,748 posts)I think the big factors are
1) The hardcore Republican / MAGA base will say we are on the wrong track any time their guy isn't in charge.
2) A good chunk of people have been fed massive disinformation about problems with the border, crime, unemployment, undocumented foreigners, etc.
3) Immigration concerns
4) Inflation
I don't have a good guess for what percentage falls into each category. But (1) is going to be impossible to change and (2) is going to be more of a problem moving forward, but it needs to be addressed somehow. I think (3) and (4) are going to work in our favor in the next election cycle.
DemocratSinceBirth
(100,361 posts)whopis01
(3,748 posts)I was answering the question about why do 70% of Americans think we are on the wrong track.
Part of the 70% is the MAGA base and they are going to say we are on the wrong track any time their guy isn't in charge. My point was whatever percent that is, you aren't going to change them - so don't put effort there.
travelingthrulife
(953 posts)Autumn
(46,667 posts)going to get those people.
whopis01
(3,748 posts)The question was why do 70% of Americans think we are on the wrong track?
How can the MAGA / hard Republican base and misinformed people have nothing to do with that number being so high?
Autumn
(46,667 posts)evangelicals, and catholics vote their religion, A big part of those people are not going to vote for Dems for whatever sin they can think of. Close to 90 million people sat out this election, that's people in the voter age population that didn't vote, or didn't bother to register. A good chunk of those people think it's a waste of time to vote because both parties are the same, a lot of ignorance and misinformation right there. Voters who dont feel candidates represent their views might choose to opt-out of voting, in 2016 only about 55% of eligible registered voters voted. Some red states just make voting difficult. The fact that a lot of people work on Tuesdays, usually the working poor, means it makes it difficult to get off to stand in long lines to vote.
I never said MAGA / hard Republican base and misinformed people have nothing to do with that number being so high. I answered your responses to the question 1 and 2 are always going to go with conservatives. and actually you can roll 3 in with that because immigration is a conservative boogie man. On your list that leaves the economy. I think that, Joe's age and media's infatuation with Trump were also a part of it.
whopis01
(3,748 posts)that sounded like you were saying one and two have nothing to do with the number being so high, since I was just saying why I thought the number was so high.
Jk23
(455 posts)The man on the TV box says that the immigrants are taking all the housing and getting it for free and you find someone to blame.
uponit7771
(91,998 posts)... one the economy is great when they are spending 30% less in food is extra fucked up.
I think if the DNC addressed real wages we NO DOUBT would've taken an extra 2%
John Shaft
(808 posts)Donald "Child Rapist" Trump supporters are idiots. Bad faith people of low moral character. They waste air a crackhead could be breathing.
Jk23
(455 posts)If only the smart people vote for you you're going to lose and lose badly.
And I hate to break it to you but the Working Poor are not all crackheads. I don't think really being classist against voters is really a winning strategy either.
John Shaft
(808 posts)They are not valid and nothing they say has any validity because they support and condone a child rapist.
MAGAts have no value as human beings. YOU CANNOT WORK WITH PEOPLE WHO DENY THE EXISTENCE OF REALITY AND TRUTH. You cannot "reach across the aisle" with people who PATHOLOGICALLY LIE.
They are scum, vermin, and weirdo perverts. I'd rather have a dope fiend with a pure heart than any vile MAGAt with their thieving, cowardly hands on ANYTHING.
I know what you are trying to do. It doesn't work. It's transparent as hell.
Period. Full stop. End of story.
The graph here says average apartment rent in Nov 2020 was $1102. In Nov 2024 it was $1340.
That's an increase of $238.
238/1102 is 22%.
No fun, for sure. But not 50%.
Just trying to keep us tethered to verifiable reality.
Jk23
(455 posts)I'm curious about that chart because I haven't seen rents like that for a two-bedroom apartment in quite a while.
So yeah I'm being realistic there are a lot of areas in this country that saw dramatic rent increases over 4 years without dramatic pay increases.
dpibel
(3,439 posts)That really sums it up.
That's actually what polling showed: People said they were generally doing fine, but others were in trouble, hence things were bad.
muriel_volestrangler
(102,693 posts)It could mean almost anything. Some people might have been looking at the rise of xenophobia and bigotry, and thought "America is on the wrong track"; while the xenophobes and bigots thought "look at the immigrants and LGBTQ people - America is on the wrong track". Some might look at the presidency, and think "wrong track"; some might look at Congress, or the Supreme Court (especially after Dobbs) and think "wrong track".
SharonClark
(10,351 posts)because I live in a red state where the GQP legislature has gone bonkers and the GQP threat is constant.
Im certain there are other good Democrats in that 70%.
Autumn
(46,667 posts)As James Carvel once said "It's the economy stupid."
muriel_volestrangler
(102,693 posts)There are different questions for that - "are you better or worse off", "are you optimistic about the economy" and so on. "Wrong track" is a meaningless catch-all that doesn't say what the responder thinks is wrong (or right), let alone who is responsible.
Autumn
(46,667 posts)muriel_volestrangler
(102,693 posts)The problem is that "I think the economy sucks" is just one of many possible reasons for saying "the country is on the wrong track".
Autumn
(46,667 posts)President Biden had a 39% approval rating and 70% of Americans felt we were on the wrong track.
It doesn't matter if you say "I think the economy sucks" or if you say "the country is on the wrong track".
If people are struggling , as a lot of people are they will vote for a person who says he's going to take care of their problems. No matter what those problems are.
Ilikepurple
(148 posts)The problems with the generality of this question are at least two-fold. It fails to capture which issue the direction is seemingly going the wrong way. It fails to capture which direction it is going wrong in. I personally dont like it because this question just adds more progressive voter dissatisfaction to conservative dissatisfaction numbers and they are not often unwound. The economy is a pretty high priority, but I have to say James its not just the economy stupid, stupid. Also, to the OP, I agree lets not use these or any other numbers to throw people under the bus.
Autumn
(46,667 posts)would work just as well.
uponit7771
(91,998 posts)... economist cared about but not the ones working Americans cared about.
Therefore "the economy is great" is a pretty fucked up thing to say to someone who is buy 30% less food !!!
DemocratSinceBirth
(100,361 posts)A lot of peer reviewed research suggests the inflation was more of a result of pandemic related supply chain interruptions than any fiscal or monetary stimulus, but the incumbent party got the blame.
Autumn
(46,667 posts)Jose Garcia
(2,921 posts)Immigration didn't help us either.
biophile
(445 posts)Is that its never just one thing. Sometimes its the combination of two or more things- neither one consequential alone- acting in concert or at least potentiating each other is the reason for expressed disease. So the election was a group of bad things - ineffective messaging combined with pervasive RW media, misogyny and patriarchy, ignorant people who are easily manipulated by the master con man criminal, Russian sourced bomb threats and ballot burning.
In other words, death by a thousand cuts- or at least a multitude of wounds
Happy Hoosier
(8,558 posts)Journalistist malpractice.
"Journalists" in this country gave air to absolute bullshit about the economy, not to mention the non-stop "Biden OLD" we got for months on end. The whole age issue evaporated after Biden withdrew, despite Trump's brains melting out of his ears.
Redleg
(6,248 posts)The media surely did the nation no favors. And they still haven't learned, and in spite of this, Trump and his fucking cabal will continue to denigrate the media until absolutely nobody trusts it for news.
RainCaster
(11,654 posts)When every urinalist began searching for bad things to say about Obama every time Trump would do something outrageous. That is what killed my faith in urinalism.
Tesha
(20,972 posts)Exactly.
JI7
(90,894 posts)against non white person and white female that was like Trump.
They would beat Sarah Palin, George Santos, Mark Robinson.
Martin Eden
(13,563 posts)And the inability of American voters to discern fact from fiction.
tonekat
(2,052 posts)orangecrush
(22,130 posts)JCMach1
(28,144 posts)And votes/opinions were manipulated by social media.
VP Harris ran a perfect campaign for 25 years ago.
It's not 25 years ago.
TheKentuckian
(26,314 posts)But it isn't four years ago either.
onenote
(44,805 posts)I know all the arguments about prices coming down, about gas being less on an inflation adjusted basis than it was 50 years ago, etc. Those arguments don't matter to the vast majority of voters. They don't care what their grandfathers paid for gas. What they care about, and what drives their perception, is that even with gas prices falling in late 2024, the price was still higher than it had been at any point during the Trump years, both before and after the pandemic. Some illustrative numbers, recognizing that these are national averages and that local and regional numbers can vary quite a bit: during the first Trump administration, regular gas never was at or above $3.00/gallon and was under $2.50 19 months, including quite a few months prior to the pandemic. During the past four years, the price of regular gas was under $3/gallon for only 3 months, all at the start of the Biden administration. Otherwise, it was between $3 and $4 for 37 months, $4 and $5 for five months, and over $5 one month. Those numbers create a perception that is hard to turn around. Same thing for grocery prices. Yes, they stabilized and even began dropping the past year. But what most people pay for their weekly groceries is still higher than they remember it being. And the increase in wages doesn't really offset it, because the good news of getting a raise is diluted when a good portion of that raise is spent on more expensive items like groceries and gas.
I hate to say it, but the outcome of the election probably was baked in from the start -- just as Joe's victory in 2020 was a "change" election, driven by dissatisfaction with the Trump presidency, particularly the pandemic, the 2024 election also was a "change" election, driven in large part by dissatisfaction with the economy.
Elessar Zappa
(16,082 posts)I think inflation played a bigger part in our loss than misogyny (although that certainly contributed).
standingtall
(2,998 posts)We lost Pennsylvania by just 1.7%, Michigan by just 1.6% and Wisconsin by just 0.9%. We could've done some things to have gotten us over the hump. Republicans control the media apparatus to combat that we needed a team of partisans to go on shows and social media and explain why inflation got like it was and also point out that the unemployment rate was lower and for a longer period of time in decades. We had some surrogates, but not nearly enough and many of the ones we had functioned more like de facto news reporters we a slight partisan slant rather then White House or Democratic surrogates, We also needed an organized plan for a mass exodus from twitter the moment Elon Musk bought it not just after the election. The Gaza situation also happened in which there was no good answer for. I don't know if that was enough to swing the election, maybe it was maybe wasn't, but it sure didn't help. We also spent to much time trying to flip republican voters, when we should've had a more aggressive outreach in the areas our people were in. We went heavily after White voters in very White rural and suburban areas and neglected or ignored pockets of rural areas with high populations of Black voters. Kamala Harris should've never said "were the underdogs" cringe every time I heard her say it. I don't care if it was true or not She still never should've said that, because under dogs usually lose and we didn't give her the ball to lose.
High approval ratings would not have guaranteed victory either. Bill Clinton averaged a 61% in his 2nd term and Al Gore still lost, okay it was stolen, but it never should've been close enough for Bush to steal to begin with.
Ilikepurple
(148 posts)Im sure glad that media, propaganda, disinformation, racism, misogyny, transphobia, world events, and fear of crime and immigrants are officially not something we really need to focus on.
oldmanlynn
(511 posts)And throw in the fact that Republicans control the narratives because they are talking about it every day.
Its sad that republicans control the image of democrats because they talk about our image more than dems do.
Fiendish Thingy
(18,816 posts)Sneederbunk
(15,392 posts)Elessar Zappa
(16,082 posts)It was uphill from the beginning.
WhiteTara
(30,227 posts)Remember when Hillary was the most admired woman in the world for several years and then the media got hold of her and boom, a pariah. That is what they did to President Biden.
Of course, the GOP was behind the media attacks, because you know, left wing media.
tritsofme
(18,709 posts)Incumbents just dont win with numbers like that, weve seen it all over the world.
WarGamer
(15,762 posts)Zambero
(9,782 posts)following a 2018 wave election for Democrats. They're about to remember.
andym
(5,726 posts)in a big way in order to win. Joe's favorability directly correlates with the price increases seen in the Summer/Fall of 2021.
Kamala would have had to come out with a big "change" platform to attempt being linked too closely to Joe if she wanted to overcome this "being on the wrong track" polling. Trump's "doom and change" campaign actually worked well for him.
Democrats should never forget Bill Clinton's "It's the economy stupid."
OTOH, let's give credit where it's due-- Kamala outperformed Joe's polling deficit against Trump AND outperformed Joe's favorability by A LOT.
standingtall
(2,998 posts)So I don't know how any Democrat could've differentiated themselves from Biden in any meaningful way, especially sense what Biden was doing was actually working. Was a failure of messaging by Democrats, because Biden's approval/favorability and polling numbers should've never been allowed to get as bad as they got.
andym
(5,726 posts)The favorability of even the "great communicator" Reagan was in the toilet in the beginning of 1983 because of high interest rates and stagflation-- it's only when the Fed's actions bore fruit and inflation was tamed and interest rates came down that Reagan's favorability soared and Democrats' hopes of defeating him were dashed.
standingtall
(2,998 posts)We were in an actual recession then and Carter's approval ratings were worse then Biden and Carter didn't have historically low unemployment rates he could point too. As far as Bush Sr. "read my lips no new taxes" and he raised taxes that hurt him. Bushed term was an extension of the Reagan/Bush administration so there might have been a bit of fatigue there. Plus a 3rd party candidate Ross Perot got a significant amount of the vote throw in a charismatic Democrat like Bill Clinton and Bush was doomed.
Also remember we only lost this election by 1.5% in the poplar vote and only lost Pennsylvania by 1.7% Michigan by 1.6% and Wisconsin by 0.9%. So I firmly believe we could've made up at least that extra 2% we needed in those 3 important swing States. Carter and Bush were not remotely close to winning and therefore not equivalent to this election.
mr715
(934 posts)Isn't owed anything.
He had a crappy approval rating because he couldn't formulate a message. He governed and worked with legislated, but he could not message.
And for the record, it never was one of his strengths. He is compassionate, earnest, a "good man", but he did not the requisite political bloodlust necessary to combat Trump. His reflexive desire towards comity undermined his own incredible successes.
Also, that debate. I know I'm a 1 trick pony, but the debate demonstrated that he lacked the spirit of the moment.
If we are fighting fascism, then pull out all the stops. If we don't, then its just words and I hate it.
MR
standingtall
(2,998 posts)We really needed to win this election and we didn't. National Democrats knew 4 years ago messaging wasn't Biden's strong suit and therefore should've formulated their own team to do Biden's messaging for him.
mr715
(934 posts)I think he is an old, egotistical man that couldn't be moved.
He deserves significant blame for the mess we're in. Half measures.
He could've been great. He could've been good. Now he is a footnote.
MR
DemocratSinceBirth
(100,361 posts)Respectfully he was blamed for inflation he didn't cause and didn't get credit for the things he did cause like infrastructure investment and guiding us out of the pandemic.
mr715
(934 posts)But he could've been playing the game their way the whole time.
We wanted a return to normalcy and we got some palliative care. His do no harm approach did a bit of harm.
In my opinion. I thank you for your perspective and understand that you disagree.
MR
DemocratSinceBirth
(100,361 posts)It has largely abated. However that means prices are just going up more slowly and everything still cost more.
mr715
(934 posts)I think the electorate is a lot meaner and capricious than I imagined. The covid era, education losses, general craziness...
Can't know, but I think your analysis is more optimistic than mine. Issue based. Inflation eases, we'll pivot back to power.
I am less optimistic. I think we've entered the Mr. Beast reality politics show. And we need to negotiate in that environment, which is devoid of meaningful connection to policy or governance.
MR
DemocratSinceBirth
(100,361 posts)Ten percent of the electorate respond to material conditions.
mr715
(934 posts)Thanks you for your perspective. Onward.
DemocratSinceBirth
(100,361 posts)Easterncedar
(3,649 posts)They pushed and sold the negative narrative. Biden was magnificent and effective. And decent.
mr715
(934 posts)He was a Senator-President. He legislated. He resembled LBJ.
He did us no favors politically because he couldn't consistently articulate a message.
Sporadically yes, at the State of the Union addresses, but no. His vision might've been clear, but his marketing was not.
TheKentuckian
(26,314 posts)That is crazy, what in the past say thirty years would indicate that any such thing was ever going to happen?
Bidenomics was tone death as can be and Biden supporters even here were adamantly arguing that my wages had gone up to more than offset cost increases like I'm too fucking dumb to look at my paystubs, bills, rent, and grocery receipts.
Now, I knew way better than to make bad horrible but the messaging even internally was pig shit and WAY more concerned about wagon circling than reaching even the choir much less anyone not in the pews.
ibegurpard
(16,885 posts)To get the truth and the messaging around it out
Vinca
(51,240 posts)holiday travel and are projected to set records for holiday spending. Don't give the electorate more credit than they deserve. They were primarily voting for the show they eagerly followed which didn't allow them time to read real news coverage and learn the facts. Anyone can predict how this is going to go. Everything will go to hell . . . again . . . and Democrats will all be elected in 2 and 4 years because now the electorate really is feeling pain and the only people they can blame are Republicans.
Demsrule86
(71,033 posts)we were in trouble and I hoped with the large fund raising for Kamala it would be OK... just like Hillary, Kamala would have been a wonderful president. But it was risky and I worried about the rustbelt...where we win or lose. I think Biden could have recovered from the debate and would have had a better chance in the rust belt than anyone else.
We will never know. Kamala Harris was an outstanding candidate...one of the best in our history. I don't believe we will be able to elect a woman president in my lifetime.
We took a big gamble to get rid of an incumbent president so close to the election and we lost. If you look at my posts, you would see this was always my fear. Of course once Kamala was our candidate, I worked my ass off and refused to believe she would lose. I always do that. She deserved to win.
TheKentuckian
(26,314 posts)He became a gravity well and if it was deserved had nothing to do with it.
Incumbency was a net negative too but even if it wasn't Biden was not up for a vigorous campaign, certainly not with holding down his day job but realistically at all.
He should not have been trying to run again no matter how well earned on the merits.
I don't even think he would have been able to do it effectively 2020 if it wasn't for Covid.
Governing and campaigning are related but not the same skillset.
standingtall
(2,998 posts)As far as Biden digging holes in the House and Senate. Biden's polling numbers weren't any worse than any other Democratic candidate other then fantasy candidates like Michelle Obama until a flood of big Democratic donors demanded he step down and some of those same polls were funded by Democratic donors that had an agenda to get him to withdraw from the race.
Biden does have some blame in this, but so does the entire Democratic apparatus from the big donors to the Congress to the Senate etc. Maybe Biden could've recovered if Democrats would've been willing to rally around their President. We don't know. Maybe he falls on his face in another debate an losses. We don't know, but what we do know is what actually happened. The people who called for Biden to step down got their way with an alternative candidate and not only did we not win the Presidency, but failed to take back the House and lost the Senate too.
Response to standingtall (Reply #71)
Post removed
standingtall
(2,998 posts)by the constant ridicule of Biden's age by the Trump campaign and the media. The story going to be coming out if it does come out will be from people who are trying to avoid taking responsibility for their role in what happened and therefore should be taken with a grain of salt.
Hekate
(95,297 posts)ucrdem
(15,720 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(100,361 posts)standingtall
(2,998 posts)ucrdem
(15,720 posts)Strange days.
ucrdem
(15,720 posts)No sarcasm intended. Regarding the approval rating, probably not, but it was essentially a meaningless number. Joe's habit of running is to come on strong at the end and he was on track to do it again. No one else had a hope in hell. That was obvious to me and I wasn't worried until operation Franken got under way. I still didn't think he'd drop out but I knew it was over as soon as I heard the news. That was a sad, sad Sunday.
InAbLuEsTaTe
(24,670 posts)ucrdem
(15,720 posts)But she isn't Joe Biden.
InAbLuEsTaTe
(24,670 posts)MichMan
(13,561 posts)1) A sitting VP has not won election as president since Martin VanBuren in 1836
2) Only once previously (Grover Cleveland in 1892) has someone who lost re election been elected again to another term
3) Only two sitting presidents have withdrawn from running for a 2nd term; LBJ and Biden. In both cases, their sitting VP lost.
meadowlander
(4,764 posts)Let's not fool ourselves. New Hampshire was in play by the time he dropped out.
ucrdem
(15,720 posts)Bidens dismal debate performance and the intense criticism it drew from the media and even other Democrats didnt result in a dramatic drop in his numbers or really much of a drop at all. Biden was getting around 41 percent of the national popular vote (including third-party candidates) before the June 27 debate and is at 40 percent now, according to FiveThirtyEight.
Read more: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/07/17/inconclusive-polls-help-biden/
DemocratSinceBirth
(100,361 posts)Kamala likely also saved the AZ, WI, Mi, and NV Senate seats and a bunch of House seats. This could have easily been 1980. It hurts because TSF is uniquely awful.
standingtall
(2,998 posts)because the public polls never showed Trump getting 400 plus electoral votes. This was never going to be 1980. Biden wasn't going to lose California and lose like 45 States like Carter did.
Initech
(102,512 posts)It's on in doctors offices, it's on in gyms, it's on in restaurants, in homes, you name it. Ww lost because too many people watch that shit.
J_William_Ryan
(2,265 posts)Well, they ran the train completely off the track.
Skittles
(160,330 posts)alrighty then
Takket
(22,664 posts)honestly..... this country is so fucked. i mean.......... FUCKED. pardon my French but i don't know what else to say about these numbers. i wish i could enjoy watching all these IDIOTS get RUINED by their own fucking stupidity, but all us Harris voters are going to suffer along with them..............
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/
Freethinker65
(11,165 posts)An end to rash economic decisions, vindictiveness, trashing of allies, and attempts to cut social safety nets. Four years of competence and compassion and non-corruption from cabinet members. An agenda to help all Americans.
Biden/Harris did that. Amazing.
Many who voted for Biden, did so thinking he would be a one term President and that during that one term new Democratic leaders would rise to the occasion to move the country forward. There should have been an actual Democratic Presidential primary.
intheflow
(29,054 posts)It literally says nothing about what people are thinking. MAGA thinks were on the wrong track when Black women can run for president. I think the countrys on the wrong track allowing a rapist felon to run for president. Its BULLSHIT.