Are Democrats probably going to gain a net of two seats in the House?

[Joe Cool]

I am reading different things but it seems like that will be the case for the next Congress.

So, GOP gains Presidency, gains four seats in the Senate, and loses two seats in the House?

[ck4829]

1. What a disaster

[Joe Cool]

2. I am sure once the dust settles the media will completely ignore the Democrats gain in the House.

And continue the narrative that it was a ReD wAvE.

[brush]

4. Dems gaining two seats still leave a rethug majority of what, around 6?

That's something but not that significant.

[appmanga]

6. If the current situation holds...

...it will be 219 (R)apists, 215 (D)emocrats, which would be a TWO seat majority, with two slated to leave for the Cabinet and the Gaetz seat not filled until April.

[brush]

7. Alrighty then. That's way more than something. Thanks for the info.

[Dem4life1234]

3. Is it enough to stop some of his bullshit?

[ColinC]

5. They would have taken the majority if not forbthe NC gerrymander

Still, depending on how this speaker election goes, we still might not know for sure...

[tritsofme]

8. Good example of how Democrats were hugely successful in wiping out GOP's gerrymandering advantage after the 2020 census

If Republicans have 220 members, they will control 50.6% of seats, while they are on track to win about 50.7% of House national popular vote.

In a cycle like 2012, Democratic House candidates actually won more votes than Republicans, but they still retained a fairly large majority, their advantage there has been neutralized in a big way.

[Wiz Imp]

9. Yes. Currently (R) 220 - (D) 213 (with 2 vacancies)

New Congress in January (assuming D wins in CA13 & CA45 which are pretty much sure things) as of now will be:

(R) 219 - (D) 215 (with 1 vacancy - Gaetz)

Currently 2 more Republicans are nominated for positions in Trump's cabinet. Assuming they are approved, at the beginning of Trump's term it will be: (R) 217 - (D) 215 (with 3 vacancies)

That means Republicans can't afford any defections on any legislation if they want it to pass. 1 (R) voting with the Dems will mean a tie vote (216-216), which means it doesn't pass (there is no tie breaking procedure in the House)

Unfortunately, Dems are unlikely to win any of the vacancies so once the special elections are done, it will likely be back up to 220-215 but there will be at least a short time where the Republicans have absolutely zero wiggle room.

Note also that the Republicans majority is solely due to flipping 3 seats in North Carolina which happened because of a new gerrymander that should have been illegal. If not for the illegal gerrymander, Dems would have a 218-216 majority (prior to the additional vacancies.)