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Raw Story: AI weather models can now beat the best traditional forecasts
Raw Story - AI weather models can now beat the best traditional forecasts
The Conversation
December 9, 2024 1:00PM ET
A new machine-learning weather prediction model called GenCast can outperform the best traditional forecasting systems in at least some situations, according to a paper by Google DeepMind researchers published today in Nature.
Using a diffusion model approach similar to artificial intelligence (AI) image generators, the system generates multiple forecasts to capture the complex behavior of the atmosphere. It does so with a fraction of the time and computing resources required for traditional approaches.
How weather forecasts work
The weather predictions we use in practice are produced by running multiple numerical simulations of the atmosphere.
Each simulation starts from a slightly different estimate of the current weather. This is because we don’t know exactly what the weather is at this instant everywhere in the world. To know that, we would need sensor measurements everywhere.
These numerical simulations use a model of the world’s atmosphere divided into a grid of three-dimensional blocks. By solving equations describing the fundamental physical laws of nature, the simulations predict what will happen in the atmosphere.
Known as general circulation models, these simulations need a lot of computing power. They are usually run at high-performance supercomputing facilities.
/snip
The Conversation
December 9, 2024 1:00PM ET
A new machine-learning weather prediction model called GenCast can outperform the best traditional forecasting systems in at least some situations, according to a paper by Google DeepMind researchers published today in Nature.
Using a diffusion model approach similar to artificial intelligence (AI) image generators, the system generates multiple forecasts to capture the complex behavior of the atmosphere. It does so with a fraction of the time and computing resources required for traditional approaches.
How weather forecasts work
The weather predictions we use in practice are produced by running multiple numerical simulations of the atmosphere.
Each simulation starts from a slightly different estimate of the current weather. This is because we don’t know exactly what the weather is at this instant everywhere in the world. To know that, we would need sensor measurements everywhere.
These numerical simulations use a model of the world’s atmosphere divided into a grid of three-dimensional blocks. By solving equations describing the fundamental physical laws of nature, the simulations predict what will happen in the atmosphere.
Known as general circulation models, these simulations need a lot of computing power. They are usually run at high-performance supercomputing facilities.
/snip
2 replies
= new reply since forum marked as read
= new reply since forum marked as read
after all, he's an Expert at Everything.
