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Galraedia

(5,255 posts)
Sat Jan 25, 2025, 09:40 PM Jan 25

Blue Alert: Why Democrats are poised to win in 2028 and 2032

The Republican Party will find itself at a critical crossroads as the 2028 election approaches.

Despite the doom and gloom narrative from Democrats, they are in a far stronger position than many in the GOP would care to admit. In fact, we believe Democrats are poised as favorites not only for 2028 but also for 2032. The reasons for this go beyond rhetoric — they are deeply rooted in history and strategic realities.

The Democrats’ potential dream team could be Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro (D) at the top of the ticket with Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) as his running mate. This pairing isn’t just formidable — it’s a strategic masterpiece. Together, Shapiro and Whitmer have the appeal to solidify the so-called blue wall — the trio of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin that has been pivotal in presidential elections since George H.W. Bush’s victory in 1988.

History shows that winning these three states essentially guarantees the presidency. This ticket would energize suburban voters, particularly women, and strengthen turnout in urban centers, creating an electoral map that leaves the GOP with few viable paths to victory.

Read more: https://thehill.com/opinion/5105555-democrats-poised-to-win-2028-election/

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Blue Alert: Why Democrats are poised to win in 2028 and 2032 (Original Post) Galraedia Jan 25 OP
I believe the winning will start in 2026 BOSSHOG Jan 25 #1
I'm seeing JustAnotherGen Jan 25 #3
... orangecrush Jan 25 #2
Woman at top of ticket Pris Jan 25 #4
Losing another general election isn't going to help that. BannonsLiver Jan 26 #22
We may have won in 2024. Remember him thanking Elon re voting machines delisen Jan 25 #5
As we were in 2024? LakeArenal Jan 25 #6
I don't think anyone besides DU saw 2024 as a guarantee Polybius Jan 26 #17
Those 3 states will likely no longer be key to winning after 2030 DetroitLegalBeagle Jan 25 #7
Do you have a link to any data confirming this? SKKY Jan 25 #8
Sure DetroitLegalBeagle Jan 25 #9
Thank you very much! One thing that I'm curious about is have they... SKKY Jan 26 #16
If anything, Texas may get even more red like Florida. Self Esteem Jan 26 #20
it will also likely really sting us in the House from 2032 onward, as many, many of those state-to-state seat moves Celerity Jan 25 #10
Yep DetroitLegalBeagle Jan 26 #11
Shapiro is too conservative to win a democratic primary SocialDemocrat61 Jan 26 #12
How is he too conservative ? JI7 Jan 26 #13
Support for vouchers SocialDemocrat61 Jan 26 #15
His position on vouchers puts him way down my list dsc Jan 26 #14
Believe I heard that in 2024. republianmushroom Jan 26 #18
Well, from your mouth to god's ear, but it ain't happened until it happens. elocs Jan 26 #19
I'm honestly not sold on Shapiro pinkstarburst Jan 26 #21

BOSSHOG

(40,997 posts)
1. I believe the winning will start in 2026
Sat Jan 25, 2025, 09:48 PM
Jan 25

The way trump is going, Democrats will probably start winning by Mardi Gras this year. Not in elections of course. But his shit will start stinking real quick. Or I’m wrong about our team in Washington. I don’t think I’m wrong.

Pris

(53 posts)
4. Woman at top of ticket
Sat Jan 25, 2025, 09:55 PM
Jan 25

Equality is essential for democracy and the solid history of male presidents is calcifying and stagnant.
Women have lost rights and we shouldn't have. We lost because women lack power in the USA

delisen

(6,774 posts)
5. We may have won in 2024. Remember him thanking Elon re voting machines
Sat Jan 25, 2025, 10:00 PM
Jan 25

If we do not secure voting beyond a shadow of a doubt, we will lose every election.

Polybius

(19,119 posts)
17. I don't think anyone besides DU saw 2024 as a guarantee
Sun Jan 26, 2025, 11:51 AM
Jan 26

The final week of the election it was as much of a toss-up as there has ever been in recent memory. I predicted Harris wins with 286 EV's to Trump's 252, and I was laughed at. The real truth is that I flipped NC that day to be more optimistic, otherwise my prediction would have been 268-270.

DetroitLegalBeagle

(2,271 posts)
7. Those 3 states will likely no longer be key to winning after 2030
Sat Jan 25, 2025, 10:04 PM
Jan 25

Reapportionment projections show southern states and a couple red mountain states gaining enough seats/EV's and solid Blue states losing enough, that the republicans could win the Presidency without any of the Blue wall states.

DetroitLegalBeagle

(2,271 posts)
9. Sure
Sat Jan 25, 2025, 10:18 PM
Jan 25
https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/analysis-opinion/big-changes-ahead-voting-maps-after-next-census]

These big apportionment changes would also significantly change political parties’ Electoral College math starting with the 2032 election.

In 2024, Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris could have won the Electoral College by winning the states she carried, Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District (Nebraska allocates some electoral votes by district), plus the so-called Blue Wall battleground states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

By 2032, that strategy would no longer work. Given the shift of electoral votes to the South, even if a Democrat in 2032 were to carry the Blue Wall states and both Arizona and Nevada, the result would be only a narrow 276–262 win.

SKKY

(12,376 posts)
16. Thank you very much! One thing that I'm curious about is have they...
Sun Jan 26, 2025, 11:27 AM
Jan 26

...considered the eventual shift of Texas to blue, or at the very least purple.

Self Esteem

(1,931 posts)
20. If anything, Texas may get even more red like Florida.
Sun Jan 26, 2025, 12:47 PM
Jan 26

A lot of the people abandoning places like California, which is a state hemorrhaging in domestic population shifts, are conservative-leaning and going to places like Idaho and Texas.

Where that hurts is that California continues to shrink and soon will lose electoral votes (as many as four is being projected), while Texas and Florida continue to gain. This also means fewer congressional seats as well.

So, California might actually become more liberal but smaller, while Texas becomes larger but more conservative as it attracts California refugees.

2024 was the first election since the COVID exodus hit California hard and Texas shifted FAR to the right compared to where they had been the last few elections. Harris lost the state by 14 points in 2024. In 2020, Biden only lost it by a little over five points.

Harris lost the state by the largest margin since Obama in 2012.

Democrats have to figure things out because the EC map is a disaster for them after the 2028 election.

Celerity

(47,847 posts)
10. it will also likely really sting us in the House from 2032 onward, as many, many of those state-to-state seat moves
Sat Jan 25, 2025, 10:28 PM
Jan 25

will flow into Red-controlled states that will gerrymander the fuck out of them to favour the Rethugs

SocialDemocrat61

(3,460 posts)
12. Shapiro is too conservative to win a democratic primary
Sun Jan 26, 2025, 07:44 AM
Jan 26

He’d never get the nomination. And VP picks don’t guarantee a state, that’s a myth.

dsc

(52,789 posts)
14. His position on vouchers puts him way down my list
Sun Jan 26, 2025, 08:49 AM
Jan 26

I would support him in a general but a primary is vastly different.

elocs

(23,230 posts)
19. Well, from your mouth to god's ear, but it ain't happened until it happens.
Sun Jan 26, 2025, 12:26 PM
Jan 26

Now if you can only get complacent Democrats to care enough to get out and vote.
Frankly, I still wonder where those 7 million votes that Biden got in 2020 but Harris didn't get in '24 went because we sure could have used them.

pinkstarburst

(1,602 posts)
21. I'm honestly not sold on Shapiro
Sun Jan 26, 2025, 01:17 PM
Jan 26

I think he seems like a perfectly okay guy, but if he weren't from Pennsylvania, I don't think he'd even be part of a national conversation anywhere, and I really don't like choosing candidates for that reason.

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