A Minnesotan's Thoughts about Michele Bachmann

[MineralMan]

There's lots of speculation today about Bachmann's unexpected announcement that she won't run again. It came as no surprise to me, and I've been following her antics for some time.

First, it's very likely that she would have lost in 2014, if she ran. Her opponent, Jim Graves, who she beat only by 1% in 2012, would be very likely to be the winner in 2014. Polling, although very early, shows a trend toward Graves. Add to that the current campaign finance investigation, and the news that's likely to come from that would have made her defeat even more certain.

A while back, I posted that she would probably not run in 2014, since she'd be facing a loss that would interfere with her future plans. So now what happens?

She could, but will not, run against Al Franken in 2014 for the Senate. She would lose badly in that race, and she knows it. Her congressional wins were based on the demographics in her district. That district's boundaries were changed after the 2010 census. While it's still a conservative district, she lost some areas in her former district. Bottom line: She is not liked statewide, and would have no chance of winning the Senate race.

She could run for Governor of Minnesota, but that's another statewide race, and I don't see a win for her there.

She could, and may, launch a public speaking career. I doubt it will be a long-lived one, since she really isn't that articulate, and makes serious gaffes in almost all of her public appearances. If she speaks regularly, she will embarrass herself and her followers.

She could, and may, take up some sort of role at Fox News. Fox News, however, is overloaded with failed Republican politicians, and may not be in the mood for such a character as Bachmann. She does poorly on camera and has the potential to be a loose, embarrassing cannon, even for Fox.

My Prediction: Michelle Bachmann will resign from her House seat within three months, and move on in some other direction. I expect that she will attempt to do the public speaking thing, attempting to become a firebrand for the Tea Party wackos. I further predict that she will disappear from view fairly quickly, going the way of Sarah Palin.

[Scuba]

1. I suspect she might hang on 'til her term expires, and use the time to ...

... try to set herself up financially. Examine her votes and you'll probably foresee some financial renumeration in the form of a post-Congress "job". She may be crazy, but she likes money.

[MineralMan]

3. That's possible, of course.

However, if there is a job awaiting, there's no reason to put off taking that job up now. Since she's announced that she will not run, she'll lose any power she may have had in Congress, which wasn't substantial at all. I expect that she has already lined up her next move, so there's no reason for her to hang on to her seat.

[Erose999]

15. She'd be useless in any real "job". I doubt any company would want her to represent them, even as a

lobbyist. I think she could probably use trade her votes for some such job, but I doubt theres anywere in corporate America stupid enough to give this woman control of anything other than making coffee and watering the office Ficus tree (and god help the Ficus, lol). She may hornswaggle her way onto a corporate payroll and get a ceremonial post for a year or two, but thats about it.

After that, I could see her joining one of the hate groups like Focus on the Family (of bigots), or National Organization of Marriage (for straight couples only). She's a rockstar to the "culture war" crowd, but lately those cheesedicks are about as influential as gum on a sidewalk.

[Wounded Bear]

19. There are thousands of high paying, low profile "jobs" in corporate America...

she'd get one, easy.

[Brickbat]

2. Spot on, every point.

[Downwinder]

4. Has she served long enough for retirement?

[MineralMan]

5. Yes. If she completes her current term,

she'll have served for 8 years. Even if she doesn't, she still qualifies. However, my understanding is that actually receiving retirement doesn't begin until retirement age. I'm not sure about that, but I am sure that she qualifies for it.

[Downwinder]

10. If it will cost her a penny, she won't resign early.

She is an inveterate welfare queen.

[MineralMan]

13. More info on Congressional retirement:

House members are eligible to receive retirement at age 62 if they have served 5 years. The amount is based on time served and salary received.

Knocking off a year early won't cost her much when she starts receiving retirement money.

http://www.senate.gov/reference/common/faq/retirement_for_members.shtml

[southernyankeebelle]

6. I agree with your observations until you got to the prediction. Sad thing is Sarah Palin

is still hanging around. Now we will have another idiot on the loose giving us giggles and sh*ts. That is all both women and left. Maybe after 2016 the republican party will come back to earth and realize they can't win with idiots like them.

[MineralMan]

7. Sarah Palin's star has faded greatly in brightness.

She barely has a voice any longer, and her nonsense no longer gets the kind of coverage it used to. Bachmann will fade even more quickly. She has less wit than even Palin has, and she won't do well in longer form speeches. She's a sound bite speaker, and screws up even those.

But, I think she'll give it a go, since she's very much in love with the sound of her own voice. For a while, she'll get speaking gigs, just like Palin did, but those opportunities will decrease quickly when it's discovered just how shallow and inarticulate she really is when she isn't speaking in 15-second bursts.

Michele Bachmann is a true moron, and simply does not have the qualities of someone who can survive in the public speaking environment. But I believe she'll try, out of a mistaken belief that she has something that needs to be said.

[southernyankeebelle]

17. I will be happy when she fades fades away.

[MineralMan]

18. Everyone fades away eventually. nt

[southernyankeebelle]

20. True. But it will be nice when those two fade away.

[LuvNewcastle]

8. I think she'll eventually go back to

helping her husband with their life-long attempt at 'curing' homosexuality.

[Cha]

28. She'll miss obsessing on

OBAMACARE.

[mnmoderatedem]

9. as a Minnesotan my overwhelming thought

is I'm glad I won't have to continually apologize for her any more.

Granted there are a lot of us in a lot of our respective states who are embarrased my some of our representatives, but ol' Michele was sort of in a class by herself in that regard....

[BainsBane]

26. I feel the same way.

Great relief.

[Bluenorthwest]

11. Good she's dropping out. Graves seems fairly right wing, so he should get her voters easily

"the best thing the government can do is get out of the way and allow the free market to thrive." This is the most direct and unmodified statement I found on his website. Not very exciting other than as 'Not Bachmann'. More anti regulation crap.

[MineralMan]

12. Graves is no progressive. That's for sure.

However, he will vote reliably with the Democratic caucus. I'm basing that on his campaign literature and statements from 2012. As a Freshman in Congress, his only role will be to vote for stuff, and he'll vote with the Democrats almost 100%. Beyond that, it doesn't matter, really.

The bottom line is that no progressive can possibly win in MN CD-6. That will never happen. In fact, Graves might well lose in that district if a Republican with name recognition in the district decides to run. There are several possibilities in that direction. That race is going to be up in the air for some time.

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

23. The 6th District -- the attic where Minnesota keeps its crazy relatives.

Graves could win there - maybe - because it seems like folks are getting tired of having a crazy aunt in the attic. But they'd never elect somebody like Keith Ellison. Even so, it would be nice if Graves won, even though he's relatively conservative, since he'd at least add to the Democrats' head count.

[MineralMan]

24. Yup. nt

[wandy]

14. Amazon com's Alpha House should be her next stop....

There she could continue to entertain us with her unique blend of corporate inspired Teabaggery mixed with her ever popular bat shit crazy humor.
http://www.ign.com/articles/2013/04/26/alpha-house-pilot-review
The folks at Amazon are big kids and know enough to watch their backs.
I would just feel bad for John Goodman. Then and again if he survived Roseanne..........

[Takket]

16. maybe she will be a lobbiest?

Far more money and power in that than being in congress anyway. plus you pretty much get to do what you want with little oversight.

[Progressive dog]

21. Hoping you have this nailed

The 3 months part is something to look forward to.

[MineralMan]

22. We shall see. It's just a feeling I have.

Today, she's the top news story. She likes being the center of attention. However, not everything that is being said is positive. There's lots of criticism of Ms. Bachmann today, too. This little splash of attention is also going to bring attention to the ongoing investigation, a replaying of many of her gaffes and misstatements, and other negative stuff.

With that criticism, she's going to be less and less amused by the attention. That's why I think she'll resign her seat and move on to some role where she's surrounded by people who agree with her bat-shit crazy ideas. She needs positive reinforcement at all times. Without it, she's faced with her own moronic thoughts.

Anyhow, I have my fingers crossed.

[BainsBane]

25. She may get a job with the RNC

They like her. They probably convinced her to pull out now.

[dballance]

27. Good Analysis.

I don't think Fox will sign her either. Palin was just in the right place at the right time for them to sign her. Unless the investigations get really heated I think she'll hang on through the end of her term though. It might not be good to be seen as a "quitter" for whatever her future plans are.