Poll: Good news for Gingrich and Obama in early states

[ProSense]

Poll: Good news for Gingrich and Obama in early states

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The NBC News/Marist poll released Sunday showed Gingrich, the former House speaker, leading Romney, the former Massachusetts governor, by 19 percentage points in South Carolina and by 15 points in Florida as he continues his surge in the 2012 race.

In South Carolina, which hosts the first primary in the South, Gingrich received 42% to Romney's 23% among likely Republican primary voters. Rep. Ron Paul of Texas followed with 9% while Rep. Michele Bachmann of Minnesota and Texas Gov. Rick Perry tied at 7%. The other candidates received less than 5%. A similar survey taken in October had Romney vying for the lead with then-candidate Herman Cain, who suspended his campaign amid controversy earlier this month.

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Obama, who lost South Carolina to Sen. John McCain in 2008, leads Romney there, 45% to 42%, a disparity within the margin of error. Obama also leads Gingrich 46% to 42%. The result is a reversal for Romney, who bested the president by six percentage points in the October poll.

In Florida, a state Obama captured in the last election, he would beat Romney 48% to 41% and Gingrich 51% to 39% in a potential match-up. In October, voters were divided between Romney and Obama.

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/12/11/poll-good-news-for-gingrich-and-obama-in-early-states/

[Tiggeroshii]

1. Fuck yeah.

Obviously this doesn't mean we won't have to work hard if we want to win, but it's certainly some very good news..

[customerserviceguy]

2. A little too early to break out the champagne

While Newtie has some negatives even within his own party, I predict that he'll overcome them if he's on a clear path to the nomination.

If he wins Iowa, South Carolina, and Florida, then comes in a close second in New Hampshire, I just don't see anything stopping him. Not even his big fat mouth. Or that Stepford Wife wannabe with the crazy kooky smile, and the Tiffany jewelry.

I've long hoped for a brokered convention where Paul has 15-20% of the delegates, and Mitt and the Anti-Romney each have nearly equal shares of the balance. A rousing fight in Tampa would leave the Repukes badly bloodied, and quite distrustful of each other going into the general. If Newtered has the thing pretty much in the bag by the end of February, that's a lot of time to coalesce around his smarmy ass.

[coalition_unwilling]

4. Newt is not going to win Iowa, because he doesn't have a ground game there and

it's too late to get one going now. By contrast, Romney and Paul have been working their respective ground games for the past 6-9 months. My prediction for Iowa: Paul wins it, followed by Romeny a close second, Bachmann third and Gingrich fourth in front of Santorum and Huntsman.

The results in Iowa may not be predictive of the eventual Repuke nominee, but Romney is favored in New Hampshire currently and again Paul has committed core support in NH that Gingrich's much-vaunted poll surge does not show. So that means Gingrich might win South Carolina. But one can argue that, in South Carolina, Gingrich is something of a favorite son, being as he hails from a neighboring Southern state.

I'm inclined somewhat to DUer Grantcart's analysis (published here: http://www.democraticunderground.com/10023695) that sees a brokered Repuke convention in Tampa with no candidate having a majority of delegates on the first ballot.

[customerserviceguy]

5. If Paul wins Iowa

It will be tough for the media to keep ignoring him, but the Rethug base will continue to do just that. He will not win any primary states where it's easy for the base to just cast a vote, even an absentee one from home. Paul has motivated a bunch of people, but if it weren't for him, my guess is that 80-90 percent of them would just be indifferent to politics, at least as far as any sort of activism goes.

Bachmann has sunk like a stone, she doesn't get one of the three tickets out of Iowa. I'll be surprised if Santorum doesn't pull out the day after Iowa, the way that Dodd and Biden did four years ago, and Huntsman is finished after a poor showing in New Hampshire. Perry gets knocked off after South Carolina, and that pretty much boils it down to Mitt, Paul, and Newt as the Anti-Romney that the fundies in the rest of the states need. Paul's libertarian views are not their cup of tea, either.

Who gets the tea partiers? Right now, it looks like Mitt to me. Maybe some like Paul, but there are positions of his that drive them crazy. And if they don't trust Mitt now, they never will, unless he emerges victorious from Tampa. If Grantcart is right, and no one has that first ballot victory, then the fundies will be deeply wounded by Romney's 'theft' of the nomination, and they'll go third party for sure.

[CakeGrrl]

3. Either way, the oppo research is just falling at the feet of the Obama campaign strategists.

Keep the GOP debates coming!