July 2024 Swing State Polls: Harris Trails Trump in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Tied in Wisconsin

[kansasobama]

Source: Emerson College Swing State Polling July 2024

New Emerson College Polling/The Hill polling in five swing states finds Vice President Kamala Harris trailing former President Donald Trump in four states, and tied in Wisconsin. In Arizona, 49% support Trump and 44% support Harris. In Georgia, 48% support Trump and 46% Harris. In Michigan, 46% support Trump and 45% Harris. In Pennsylvania, 48% support Trump and 46% Harris. In Wisconsin, 47% support Harris and Trump respectively.

Read more: https://emersoncollegepolling.com/july-2024-swing-state-polls-harris-trails-trump-in-arizona-georgia-michigan-pennsylvania-tied-in-wisconsin/

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Data was collected between July 22-23, 2024

We still have some work to do. Hope Harris can at least overtake in 2 swing states before convention. Michigan is starting to worry me. Biden has helped Michigan so much. That will be a backstab if MI votes for Trump. Arizona does not make any sense. Gallego must be running a hands off campaign. Bad strategy. If Senate Dems from these states do not talk about Project 2025, it makes for a poor overall strategy. They should have been doing that with Biden. Last I checked, Gallegos cannot veto, he cannot appoint Supreme Court judges.

[Ocelot II]

1. Harris has had a campaign for only four days.

She doesn't even have a running mate yet. Ads are just starting. Let's see what the polls look like in a month.

[ificandream]

44. Yeah, as usual the pundits and polls are looking for something instantaneous.

The signs are really good that Kamala will kick Trump's butt. The Orange Idiot is scared to death. He knows the GOP does not have a ticket or platform that will have a widespread grab, especially among the independents. He can see those jail bars.

As the Wicked Witch of the West said .... (well, not the dog part)

&pp=ygUdYWxsIGluIGdvb2QgdGltZSB3aXphcmQgb2Ygb3o%3D

[marmar]

2. This poll essentially indicates a tie in Michigan. That's much better than the last Biden/Trump poll in the state.

[hlthe2b]

3. Those are doable and actually pretty damned good considering she's just entered the race.. Several appear to be

within the margin of error.

Time for all of us to go to work. And that includes NAILING MSM outlets that are clearly biased against her or bending over backward to ignore TSF's faults/make excuses for him. As but one example, I'd dearly love for MSNBC to receive a mountain of complaints--both email, text, and phone calls (if possible) after Katy Tur(d) launches into a tirade or stream of snarky comments directed at Harris-- clearly meant to help Trump. At some point--even if she thinks she is doing the bidding of higher-ups--they are going to get damned tired of all the blowback.

And no, to the few DUers who constantly wag their fingers at those of us who post complaints---just ignoring them, changing the channel or moving on is not helpful. Nothing changes if we just ignore it and plenty who do not cover politics closely are taken in by such crap.

[kansasobama]

8. Exactly

I spend half day just letting mainstream media know they are normalizing Trump and fascism.

Charlemagne had a piece calling out Jake Tapper. I am not a fan of him because he put down Joe, but his criticism of Tapper is appropriate. He took Tapper to task for asking-Is America ready for a prosecutor? He said, real question is, is America ready for a felon rapist?

[Happy Hoosier]

4. meaningless right now, I think.

The impact of the last week isn;t reflected in these. The momentum has shifted subbstantially.

We'll know more in about 2 weeks.

[honest.abe]

5. Data was collected between July 22-23, 2024. Just one day after Joe dropped out.

Way too early for any effect.

[kansasobama]

6. Yes, but we have to constantly work at it

Good to be cautious in misogynist USA.

[honest.abe]

7. Of course but you do need to clarify what you are posting. Its very misleading.

You should have included the survey dates.

[kansasobama]

9. I included links

There is lot of data in the links. But, point well taken. We are all on the same team. Go Harris. Harris win is also a win for Joe Biden. If Harris wins, look for Joe get accolades around the world.

Anyway, added the dates, as per your suggestion.

Thanks

[honest.abe]

10. The links help but not including the dates in your comments is like burying the lead.

[ramapo]

11. Blows my mind

It mystifies and saddens me that Trump can have so much support

[Oopsie Daisy]

15. I know what you mean. It makes me ashamed for our country... knowing how many STUPID and GULLIBLE and *

* hateful and bigoted and misogynistic people live here. I guess they've always been here, just hidden. Trump gave them permission, cover, to express their contempt and hate openly.

[karin_sj]

12. I don't have a lot of faith in polls anymore...

Especially this early.

[onetexan]

14. yup, way too early. I believe in that Youth poll where Kamala is 62/37. I believe the youth w turn out in recordbreaking

levels

[Polybius]

38. So way too early for polls...

Except the one where Kamala is leading?

[onetexan]

40. yea media tends to forget that Reuters/Ipsos poll, though as we know polling can be terribly wrong

also depends on the cross section of ppl they poll. If they're polling mostly magats we know its likely skewed.

[Captain Zero]

37. But TSF will use errant polls to file lawsuits anywhere he loses

Unfortunately.
We might as well be ready for that.

(Hoping errant is a real word) haha

[SlimJimmy]

46. I'm with you. After the polls

predicted a red wave in the midterms, I've had little faith in them.

[Ford_Prefect]

13. How many will show up after Trump implodes?

[Farmer-Rick]

16. For 1 day of running

That's great.

The only one to take seriously is the 5 point spread in Arizona. That's beyond the margin of error and actually means something. All the others might as well be 50/50. They are so close to the margin of error as to be meaningless.

But to have a blowout we should still target them. Actually, I think if Kamala goes to those states she could easily turn them in her favor. She's that impressive.

Edited to note the poll was taken only one day after Joe stepped aside. Which makes it even more impressive.

[nowforever]

17. Harris

Is going to get pounded on immigration issue and has to continue the Biden policies recently enacted. If she just attacks the Trump agenda and doesn't clearly outline a plan that controls the increased flow of immigrants it will probably cost her the election.

[Linda ladeewolf]

18. This is what will affect her choice of running mate.

I wonder who she’s going to pick?

[highplainsdem]

19. It's an improvement. She's up to where Biden was in March. See this tweet from a Vox reporter:

Link to tweet

[Frank D. Lincoln]

42. Getting most of those undecideds is critical.

Kamala must get most of them to win.

But how it can even be competitive given how horrible Trump and Project 2025 are is astonishing.

[DoBW]

20. yeah, ok

more crap from bad sampling

[CaptainTruth]

21. We gotta GOTV folks!!!

[everyonematters]

22. What is intriguing to me is how close it is in Georgia.

Georgia may becoming a true swing state.

[Chakaconcarne]

23. Looks like they're lining back up for the horse race...

[shotten99]

24. This looks like a statistical tie imho

Considering the timing of the polls, the convention and assassination attempt should have Trump leading by 10 in “normal” campaign cycles

[JohnSJ]

25. First of all it is too early to tell, Harris just entered the race, and is introducing herself. Second,

the majority of those polls are within the margin of error.

I haven't seen the breakdown of the polls how many are undecided, or other demographics.

That being said, I do not think the consolidation of the Democratic vote for Harris has had time to work into the polling numbers. While we saw some of that movement I believe in the National Polls, I expect to see it after our Convention where VP Harris will introduce herself to the people, and her VP choice.

In general, I have issues with polls because I do not think they adequately account for those who do not answer calls from numbers they do not recognize because of all the spam. That also includes online polls. I also think that younger demographics are the most likely not to answer calls from numbers they do not recognize.

The final point, and I think this would have happened with Biden had he stayed in those Democrats who have been on the sidelines will definitely come back home in December.

After the Convention we will see how things look. The most important thing is getting out the vote.

[dobleremolque]

28. Communications Technology and Polling

In general, I have issues with polls because I do not think they adequately account for those who do not answer calls from numbers they do not recognize because of all the spam. That also includes online polls. I also think that younger demographics are the most likely not to answer calls from numbers they do not recognize.

This^^^^^^^. The mechanics and underlying mathematics of polling have yet to catch up, much less figure out a way to adjust for the changes in the way people interface with communications technology nowadays. BTW, I finally set my mobile phone so that a number not in my contacts list doesn't even ring, much less be shunted off to clutter voice mail. Now, if only I could find just such a filter for text messages.....

[JohnSJ]

29. I wish I could do it for text messages also

[PortTack]

36. POC are notoriously under counted. The numbers of cell phones owned is smaller.

[MontanaFarmer]

26. All inside MOE except AZ.

The takeaway is she's running 3-5 points better than Joe was. She's reanimated some voters that were on the sidelines, clearly. I think she's really, seeing these numbers, going to play hard in the blue wall states plus Georgia. Trump close to 50 in AZ makes that one harder and this cycle Nevada seems even worse. But even being polled right away after she announced she has a path, which is more than we could objectively say a week ago.

[GoreWon2000]

31. Don't give up on AZ.

The AZ. polling is still very close to the margin of error. I learned early on in my more than 20 years of working on campaigns that the only poll that counts is the one taken on election day. As previously noted, it's only been 4 days for Kamal's campaign. She's only begun to ramp up and she has the same campaign team that ran the winning Biden-Harris campaign in 2020. I also learned that most polls skew repug due to dems being at work when repugs are at home which is typically the phone numbers that the polling companies use to contact voters. In addition, AZ. has a pro-choice ballot initiative this year that should help because a majority of AZ. voters are pro choice. This includes pro-choice repug women who do cross party lines on this issue. Pro-choice and pro-democracy are what won in AZ. in 2022 and we need to hammer them again in 2024.

[NoMoreRepugs]

27. 100+ days to go and pearls are being kept at the ready? C'mon people, give it a rest.

[Qutzupalotl]

30. Youth turnout will be much higher than previous models.

And the enthusiasm gap vs. Trump is yuge.

[Sky Jewels]

35. And women. We are going to swamp the polls this time.

All those special elections where the D's did better than expected? That's going to happen again in November. But on steroids.

[VMA131Marine]

32. Democrats and Democratic issues ...

(e.g. abortion access and recreational marijuana) have consistently outperformed the polling over the last few years. That’s a sign to me that most pollsters are not getting a representative sample, maybe because a lot of people just won’t answer their cellphones if they don’t know who is calling, I know I don’t. On-line polls have their own issues. I think Harris will be fine in these states.

[onandup]

33. Only down two in Georgia and Pennsylvania is actually quite good

These numbers are part of what is hopefully a positive trend that will continue.

[LisaL]

39. Here we go with those polls again.

NT

[andym]

41. Actually good news-- the impact of VP Harris' positive press ongoing! By next week she will likely be leading in all.

It takes time for the polls to move-- they are inertial.

[Sparkly]

43. She's ahead by 1 according to "Morning Consult"

Morning Consult’s weekly presidential race poll, conducted July 22-24 among 11,297 registered voters, shows Harris leading 46% to Trump’s 45%.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/saradorn/2024/07/25/trump-vs-harris-2024-polls-harris-leads-trump-in-latest-survey/

Edit: Reuters/Ipsos has her up by 2:
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/harris-leads-trump-44-42-us-presidential-race-reutersipsos-poll-finds-2024-07-23/

[bromeando]

45. Harris v Trump

The "polls" got rid of a good President for the working people. Now they're trying to get rid of Harris.