New poll reveals shift in race between Trump and Kamala in two major states

[Dem4life1970]

This discussion thread was locked as off-topic by Yonnie3 (a host of the Latest Breaking News forum).

Source: Daily Mail

New poll reveals shift in race between Trump and Kamala in two major states
READ MORE: Kamala Harris prepares for next week's crunch debate with Trump
By James Gordon For Dailymail.com

Published: 18:45 EDT, 7 September 2024 | Updated: 01:04 EDT, 8 September 2024

The race for the White House is tightening up in two states previously thought to be solidly Republican.
Latest polls suggest the southern states of Texas and Florida, which Trump carried comfortably by 5 points and 4 points respectively in 2020, are now far closer than at any time in the race.

Trump won Florida in both 2016 and 2020 securing 30 electoral votes, while Texas which has remained solidly red since 1976 was also won by Trump in 2020, garnering him 40 electoral college votes.

But the former president has seen his support erode among most demographic groups since his Democratic rival in the November 5 election, Vice President Kamala Harris, replaced President Joe Biden atop the Democratic ticket over the summer.

Now things could be about to change in states that were never considered swing states or toss-ups, with latest surveys from Emerson College suggesting Harris is now within the margin of error (about 3 points) in both.


Read more: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13825195/Poll-reveals-shift-race-Trump-Kamala-Florida-Texas.html

[JohnSJ]

1. If we win either of those states, the election is over.

[femmedem]

2. I don't understand this article. Maybe it's due to my migraine, but it seems to contradict itself.

The quote in the OP says that Trump won Texas by 5 points and Florida by 4 in 2020, but that the race is closer in 2024.

However, when I followed the link in the OP, I read that Trump is "only narrowly ahead" in Florida: 50% for Trump and 45% for Harris, a difference of 5 points. That's not within the 3-point margin of error, and it's slightly worse than in 2020.

Then the article stated that in Texas, Trump is 4 points ahead , described again as "well within the (3-point) margin of error."

[Ohiya]

4. Maybe this is the answer.

If T leads 52 to 48, that would be a 4 point lead.
A 3 point margin of error could give T between 49 and 55, And Kamala between 45 and 51.
So , Kamala could be leading 51 to 49, with a 3 point margin of error.
That's how I understand it.
But, I could be wrong.

[femmedem]

5. That makes sense.

Thanks! I'm still not so sure I'd say it's closer than it was in 2020, since the margin could also be Trump's 55 to Kamala's 45. But at least I now understand how it's within the margin of error.

[GB_RN]

14. Yup.

Take the MoE and if you subtract it from one, add it to the other, and vice versa.

[newdayneeded]

9. Might be based on Biden vs trump

numbers.

[James48]

3. If only Texas turned blue.

Just for one gigantic blue wave.

Wouldn’t that be nice?

[groundloop]

6. That'd put us well on the way to the landslide I'd like to see.

Last edited Sun Sep 8, 2024, 07:54 PM - Edit history (2)

The way I figure it, the best way to force tRump to slither away for good is for Kamala to win in an absolutely mind numbing, soul crushing landslide that totally embarrasses the orange fool. So far I'm not seeing that in the poles, but fingers are crossed.

[krkaufman]

12. May be necessary ...

… to get the GOP to truly reform.

[IronLionZion]

7. If we get high enough turnout from our side, women, minorities, young people, etc.

It would be fun for a blue wave to turn both of those states blue while MAGAts bloviate about "illegals voting" or whatever. I bet a lot of Latinos in those states are not too happy with MAGA.

[4lbs]

8. DailyMail is a right-wing rag like Page 3 of Rupert "Fox News" Murdoch. So I think the race is even closer/tighter

Kamala has a real shot at winning both Florida and Texas.

She does, Dumpy the Clown is toasted worse than if his orange skin makeup went bad.

TDM doesn't seem to be as far right-wing as Page 3, but it is still right-wing and has a kind of a tabloid feel to it.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Daily_Mail

The Daily Mail is a British daily middle-market tabloid newspaper published in London. It was founded in 1896.

[krkaufman]

11. Trolling

Could just be a Right Wing rag trying to get Harris to lose focus on the states that matter, electorally.

[Iggo]

10. Harris. (n/t)

[chiffondior]

13. I think both states could be in play, but......

.....I don't trust the electoral results of either state at this point. Between the gerrymandering, mass purges of the voter rolls and outright voter suppression and intimidation by DeSantis and Abbott's lackeys, I don't think the true will of the people of either state can be known.

[Yonnie3]

15. Locking

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