DNC Chair Jaime Harrison optimistic about turning the Sunshine State blue: "Florida is in play"

[BumRushDaShow]

Source: CBS News

Updated on: September 21, 2024 / 9:23 PM EDT


MIAMI — Democratic National Committee Chair Jaime Harrison is optimistic about his party's chances in the Sunshine State, despite its electoral votes going to Republicans in the last two presidential elections. "Florida is in play," Harrison told CBS News Miami in an interview Saturday. "Florida, Florida, Florida."

"For the first time in 30 years, you have Democrats running in every seat in the state House, the state Senate, and [at] the congressional level," he added. Both Miami-Dade and Broward counties went for President Biden in 2020, while former President Donald Trump won the state by about three percentage points that year.

Florida has about 5.38 million registered Republicans and 4.35 million registered Democrats, according to the latest numbers from the Florida Department of State's website. There are also about 3.54 million unaffiliated voters.

Harrison argues that Florida Democrats were hampered in 2020 by the pandemic. "Because of COVID, Democrats weren't able to put a field operation on the ground, to knock on doors, to communicate with voters," Harrison said.

Read more: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/jaime-harrison-democratic-national-committee-chair-optimistic-about-turning-florida-blue/

[bucolic_frolic]

1. Optimistic but remains to be seen.

No downside to being optimistic, they can point to some success in the state house no matter what happens

Defeating Scott or grabbing the electoral college votes would be a whopper.

[BumRushDaShow]

3. Why is it that

Last edited Sun Sep 22, 2024, 10:21 AM - Edit history (1)

FL flipped to (D) 4 times in 28 years (1992, 1996, 2008, 2012) and it's not "a swing state" but PA flipped to (R) one time in 28 years (2016) and IS "a swing state"????

(and yes, BOTH states have had GOP governors AND all-GOP legislatures and state Supreme Courts)

It's called "media narrative" and it's done to suppress efforts to actually rally Democrats to vote (and the FL Democratic party had been in shambles for years).

(edit - forgot Obama won both times in FL - 2008 & 2012)

[voris820]

2. Just hope Amendment 4 passes.

Its gonna be close.

[kansasobama]

4. First, need a little more in NV, AZ

Need to lock that up. If concentrating on FL, results in losing all of NC, GA, NV, AZ it is not good. Despite the polls, FL looks more like a 2 to 3 points loss. Senate is a better shot although I don't think we can win there. Have you seen those Dems in Miami-Dade county? They have really moved away from us. I know it is stupid but it is what it is. Next, those seniors in FL are pretty short sighted. We can increase numbers in Jacksonville but not enough to make up Miami shortfall.

[BumRushDaShow]

7. They raised over $1/2 billion in just a month (from July 21 - August 25)

https://www.npr.org/2024/08/25/nx-s1-5089138/kamala-harris-fundraising-dnc

That is on top of the hundreds of millions they had prior to July 21st.

I think the fact that they are "spreading it around" is because they HAVE gone full blown in the 6 designated "swingy" states - the only one getting "equal" spending and attention by both parties, being PA, where Democrats are out-spending the GOP in the rest (AZ, GA, MI, NV, WI).

NC was more like FL, both being "possible" pickups. In 2020, the vote differential in NC was about 74,000 which was LESS THAN the 2020 PA difference of 81,000.

And in 2020, the FL differential was about 372,000 but in 2016, the FL differential was only 113,000, which was less than the MI 2020 differential of 154,000.

[hay rick]

5. Talk is cheap.

In 2022 the DNC disinvested in Florida to concentrate their money in multiple more winnable states. I'm not going to argue with the strategy but question whether that strategy has changed.

[BumRushDaShow]

8. Further in the article

"I think you will see a surge of resources coming in," Harrison said. "I've just done a few tweets...over the last few days for Debbie, and we're seeing money coming in."

What "the media" won't tell you or emphasize is that in 2016, 45 only won FL by 1.2% / 113,000 votes. So with a functional Democratic party there (which has been hard to get due to infighting and whatnot), it is do-able.

As a note that I posted upthread - Democrats won Florida 4 times in 28 years and Republicans won Pennsylvania 1 time in 28 years.

So why is "the narrative" and potential always skewed in favor of the GOP when the stats say otherwise?

[hay rick]

9. The voter registration stats have changed and are utterly discouraging.

When I moved to Florida at the end of 2011, Democrats had a 500,000 voter registration advantage but still managed to lose most statewide races due to poor turnout and dixiecrat crossover voting. The registration advantage has since evaporated and turned into a 1,000,000+ deficit. It's unrealistic to compare the Florida electorate now with the Florida electorates in earlier cycles.

[BumRushDaShow]

11. Interestingly enough

there has been an outflow of retirees from FL to states like SC and NC (particularly the Smokies).

You probably also have a lot who live there who have NOT registered to vote or were purged (and didn't bother to re-register). That has always been an issue - especially when you have a large immigrant population.

It's also the Indies that need to be canvassed and convinced and they have a significant chunk of registrations.

I bring up the PA vs FL thing because as long as we let someone else "define and control the narrative" of it being "impossible", then it will be "impossible". PA has also shown an erosion of Democratic registrations but what does that really mean? Especially when election after election, post 2020, Democrats have been shown to have "overperformed".

So many on DU bring up Howard Dean and his "50-state strategy" and this is an instance where the DNC and Harris/Walz campaigns have literally GOBS of money. Just unheard of amounts of money. To raise $1/2 a billion in just a month is obscene.

The GOP scrapes every vote they can out of the slime pits and we need to scrape every vote that we can out of the forgotten urban neighborhoods.

[kansasobama]

12. It is merely talk

I cannot believe anything in Florida.

[FM123]

6. I think it can happen!

And if it does, those 30 electoral votes from Florida will wrap up the election in a big beautiful bow. The only two states with more electoral votes are TX and CA so it's certainly worth the effort (and money) to fight hard in FL.

[TommieMommy]

10. I'm voting blue 💙 and for the abortion amendment to pass