Tropical Storm Milton forms in Gulf of Mexico, expected to strike Florida as hurricane

[BumRushDaShow]

Last edited Sat Oct 5, 2024, 02:15 PM - Edit history (2)

Source: Scripps News

Posted 9:50 AM, Oct 05, 2024 and last updated 10 minutes ago


The National Hurricane Center said a disturbance in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico became the latest tropical storm as it drifts toward the Florida coast.

Tropical Storm Milton formed on Saturday from a broad area of low pressure with scattered bands of thunderstorms. The National Hurricane Center said the system is expected to become better organized in the coming days, potentially becoming a hurricane by Monday.

The National Hurricane Center said it expects the system could be near major hurricane strength when it approaches Florida by midweek.

The system could strike a storm-weary region still cleaning up from the damage left by Hurricane Helene.

Read more: https://www.scrippsnews.com/weather/gulf-of-mexico-disturbance-92l-could-become-a-tropical-storm-this-weekend

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Article updated. (they haven't updated the track yet but they run the models 4 times a day and have typically been updating that track about twice a day)

Original article/headline -

Tropical Depression 14 forms in Gulf of Mexico, expected to strike Florida as hurricane

Posted 9:50 AM, Oct 05, 2024 and last updated 11:05 AM, Oct 05, 2024


The National Hurricane Center said a disturbance in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico will likely become a tropical storm later today or Sunday as it drifts toward the Florida coast.

Tropical Depression 14 formed on Saturday from a broad area of low pressure with scattered bands of thunderstorms. The National Hurricane Center said the system is expected to become better organized in the coming days, potentially becoming a hurricane by Monday.

The National Hurricane Center said it expects the system could be near major hurricane strength when it approaches Florida by midweek.

The system could strike a storm-weary region still cleaning up from the damage left by Hurricane Helene.

[dchill]

1. Looks like the future is now.

[jimfields33]

27. The worst was 2004. Six hurricanes. This year has been mild.

[dchill]

30. It's only just October.

Tell me about mild in December.

[jimfields33]

32. December will be nice. Weather always perfect.

[dchill]

33. Hurricane season ends November 30th.

But don't take my word for it:

"NOAA National Weather Service forecasters at the Climate Prediction Center predict above-normal hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin this year. NOAA’s outlook for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, which spans from June 1 to November 30, predicts an 85% chance of an above-normal season, a 10% chance of a near-normal season and a 5% chance of a below-normal season."

https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-predicts-above-normal-2024-atlantic-hurricane-season

[jimfields33]

34. Time to go to bed.

I thankfully live in the safest place in Florida for hurricanes. I’m hoping everyone in Florida is spared.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

2. Cue eMpTyhead Greene. "See, the government even FORECASTS these things." . . . nt

[Native]

3. As much as I miss it, I'm so glad we don't live on the water any longer

I'm a native Floridian, and I grew up on the water and have lived most of my adult life on the water. As kids we couldn't wait for the eye of the storm to pass over us so we could go out and play for a few minutes in the stillness of it all. We prepared by dropping the metal awnings over our jalousy windows, bleaching the bathtub so we could fill it with water to drink in case that was necessary, and stocking up on charcoal for the grill, matches and candles, and extra batteries for the radio and flashlights. I don't remember ever being without power for more than a day, and in my 60 plus years I've been through a hell of a lot of hurricanes. This s*** that's going down now is absolutely nuts.

[slightlv]

9. The things you mentioned are not just happening in Florida

especially the power going out. We had an "October Surprise" snowstorm that started out as rain, changed to sleet, and then dumped multiple inches of snow. I was at work when it all started (building a server), living about 10 minutes from my apartment. It took me almost 2 hours to make it home, and this was long after all the snow started falling and the snowplows and other equipment should have been out clearing the streets.

A large tree went down at our complex and took out all the power. Besides everything else we lost, we couldn't even sleep in our bed... we were still using our (wonderful!) waterbed... which was, of course ice cold!! We sat out on the patio and watched transformer after transformer around our complex blow and catch fire. We invested in long underwear and ate shelf-stable food for almost a month before we finally got power restored. This was NOT in the "dark ages," btw!

Living in the midwest, we were used to tornadoes, ice storms, and snow when I was a kid. The snow fell in feet, and still we had all utilities. If the power went off, it was only for a few minutes... at the worst, it was an hour or so. Things are totally upside down these days! Is it the power grid needing to be upgraded? More redundancy needing to be built into it? Or money being siphoned for other projects? I don't know... I just know that when disaster strikes, it's worse now than it was when I was a teenager! And don't even ask about the brownouts we get all the time around here!

I truly feel for Floridians. I can't imagine staying in the state... not after seeing hurricane after hurricane come through, with insurance being close to impossible to find or afford. And yet, I get mad sometimes because even my insurance company is saying my house insurance is going up because of all the disasters down south. They're trying to spread the grief countrywide to help bear the costs. Bear the costs? When they've left Florida?!

[IbogaProject]

17. The trees are all weak from Ozone pollution

Flame broiling of meat causes a type of smog that forms ground level ozone under certain conditions. This severely stresses trees and they spend so much energy repairing their tips and leaves their trunks don't get enough. I see so many fallen trees with their centers hollowed out.

[Native]

18. We have a family golf course in Augusta georgia, and we had over 200 trees uprooted or destroyed from Helene

[IbogaProject]

29. So sorry to hear

These increasing short term rain totals are another factor. Overwet soil doesnt hold under stress.

[Native]

39. Exactly.

[GreenWave]

4. Death Sentence is to blame. Didn.t show up for Joe.

[pfitz59]

6. perhaps the MAGAts will rethink Climate Change

when the 'retirement dream' becomes a nightmare.

[fmdaddio]

7. No Thanks!

I live in Florida and thank you but I don't want to be wiped off the map. Orlando is a Blue city by the way. Sorry but I do not appreciate your post.

[Auggie]

8. Good? I have friends in central Florida.

[Intractable]

10. You hope -- really?

I live in FL. On behalf of all of us in FL, FU2.

[Ligyron]

13. Gee, thanks.

I totally understand the sentiment but...

There are a lot of dedicated Democrats in Florida and we have a decent chance to turn this state around, if not now, then in the near future but we can't do that if we've drowned.

In fact, the results of this election just might surprise some folks because more than a few Repugs are sick of Trump and MAGA so they'll stay home or vote for Kamala.

Besides, it's a beautiful place which is why so many well off citizens have moved here even if their ego and ideas on how they got that way are sadly misgiven.

[Zorro]

14. You deserve a good spanking for your comment

Lots of Democrats in the area you just wished to be wiped out.

[EX500rider]

15. How pleasant of you

A category 5 would have hundreds of deaths and thousands of homes and mobile homes torn apart and destroyed.
I wouldn't wish that on any Americans especially my neighbors

[moniss]

11. I remember someon from FLA telling me years ago

that the ones that form in the Gulf and come East/Northeast can be particularly nasty. I don't know why that would be but maybe it was folklore.

[Strelnikov_]

28. Storm surge

Gradually rising shelf, right angle hit.

Some day, Tampa is . . .

[moniss]

38. I get it now. The person was from

Fort Myers and she said all of the old timers talked about it.

[slightlv]

12. I can understand the angst about Florida...

but I can't see wishing everyone off the face of the map that are trying so hard to turn the state blue. That's the problem with this "cold" civil war. we're no longer divided by North and South. We've got diverse people throughout the states. I just came back from one of the 50th anniversary tour concerts of Kansas. Even one of the members, originally from Topeka, now lives in NC and couldn't make the concert because of Helene's aftermath. Any civil war that goes from cold to hot means major issues today.

[ananda]

16. Geez, another monster. Here's the pic from Zoom Earth.

https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/#view=21.2,-87.3,4.84z

[BumRushDaShow]

20. The latest - a big blob of juicy clouds and convection

It's almost stationary, only moving about 3 mph per the last update.

[ananda]

21. And it's going to strengthen and organize.

It will be plenty bad enough when it lands.

[BumRushDaShow]

22. Yup, once it starts moving

Am surprised it is almost sitting and spinning at the moment. I guess eventually a front will start moving across the continental U.S. and capture it so it would finally have some steering mechanism.

[ananda]

23. I don't know enough about hurricanes to know if that is good or bad...

in terms of what it will be when it gets to Florida.

[BumRushDaShow]

24. Well with it sitting where it is not moving much

it is doing a lot of upwelling of the water there so colder water deep down is being churned, moved upwards towards the surface, and and then mixed with the hot surface water, which will cause cooling of the surface water in the vicinity. That can weaken it if it sits there long enough. Once it starts moving forward however, it'll keep running into more and more hot water and will strengthen (unless crosswinds shear it apart, although that is not forecast).

[ananda]

25. That makes sense.

Thank you for being so knowlegeable.

[BumRushDaShow]

35. One of my hobbies!

[tavernier]

19. Here we go again.

We are already lining up friends to help take in our friends and family in Fort Meyers, St. Pete, and Clearwater. My daughter is the manager of a restaurant on Clearwater Beach and they just reopened today after Helene. Usually we are the ones who get the hurricanes first, but this year they have decided to torture the west coast. Appreciate all your prayers and loud yelling at Milton to DIE!!!

[róisín_dubh]

31. My uncles and aunt, uncle and cousins...

Last edited Sun Oct 6, 2024, 03:28 AM - Edit history (1)

Live in Sarasota. My dad has a place in Fort Meyers. They’re over it.

By the way, we’re preparing for the remnants of a different tropical system in England…

[BumRushDaShow]

36. "we're preparing for the remnants of a different tropical system in England..."

Kirk is headed that way. It was headed to the UK, then France, then the Netherlands, and the track shifted south again...

[OAITW r.2.0]

26. This appears to be Florida's future.

A couple of Cat 3-5 storms every year will leave Florida a wasteland in 10 years. But, you can't mention climate change if you are in the government in Florida.

[BumRushDaShow]

37. The 2004 hurricane season ended up with Florida getting hit with 4