Early-voting data shows Republican reversal appears to be paying off

[totodeinhere]

Source: Washington Post

Record-setting turnout includes GOP voters, who seem to be responding to former president Trump’s pivot from trashing early voting to encouraging it. Americans are voting ahead of Election Day in historic numbers this year. That includes Republicans, who appear to be responding favorably to a new message from former president Donald Trump: It’s okay to vote early.

Dozens of states have opened in-person early-voting locations, and turnout has been robust. In Georgia, more than 1.6 million people had cast in-person ballots by midmorning Tuesday — nearly one-third of the total vote from four years ago. North Carolina hit 1.4 million Tuesday, the sixth day of early voting. And in Nevada, Republicans voting in person have outnumbered Democrats — a reversal from four years ago.





Read more: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/10/22/early-voting-republicans-democrats-trump-harris/

---

I don't know what to make of this. Early voting has favored Democrats in the past. But if the Post is on to something with this story it could be bad news for us.

[Ocelot II]

1. What really matters in the end is how many people vote, not when they vote.

Overall high turnout has historically favored Democrats, whether they do it early or on election day. "Younger voters tend to cast their ballots much later, and they will skew for Harris."

[totodeinhere]

4. I hope you are right but if how many vote matters more than when they vote

then why are both sides putting so much effort into getting their supporters to vote early?

[marybourg]

5. To discourage procrastination.

[Ocelot II]

6. Because if they know that a lot of their voters have voted already,

they can devote their remaining resources to persuading people who haven't voted yet.

[Elessar Zappa]

12. But don't you see?

The Republicans ARE PUSHING their people to vote early. That could easily mean that they won’t have their normal Election Day advantage. I wouldn’t twist my guts into knots over this.

[iluvtennis]

20. Exactly. n/t

[PortTack]

23. Good point! Thx

[Butterflylady]

29. How many republicans are anti dump.

Not all republicans are voting for dump, please keep that in mind.

[ancianita]

15. Both sides are voting early to a) get media news that shows GOTV, b) avoid voting line hassles on Nov 5,

c) to change the corporate media polling bias, and c) to promote voting.

[SomedayKindaLove]

27. Bank your votes as early as possible

1) That way people can’t switch
2) If states do R/D breakdowns, campaigns can tell where they are doing better than expected and where they are doing worse, thus relocate funds/strategy as needed.

[BigDemVoter]

37. It costs a political party time and money to keep encouraging people to get out and vote. If people have already voted,

it saves both time AND money--not to mention the fact that there could be some kind of event like an early snowfall or whatever that may discourage voting on election day.

[Lovie777]

2. nope...............

[rollin74]

3. this seems to be the case here in Nevada so far

GOP has about a 2% lead in vote total after the first few days of early voting, very unusual compared to other elections in recent years. Hopefully the numbers turn around soon.

https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-2024

[ificandream]

19. Doesn't mean they've all voted for Trump.

[displacedvermoter]

7. If the Washington Post can

publish anything to twist Democratic voters' stomach's into knots, it has been a successful edition.

[liberalmediaaddict]

32. Agreed

If Kamala wins in a blowout the Washington Post and New York Times are going to owe Democrats an apology for scaring the crap out of us about Trump for the past 4 years.

[happy feet]

46. They won't

They’ll just publish more Trump lies sbout the ‘stolen’ election, lawsuits,, …

[Pototan]

8. What's the point of this OP?

It seems that this article is only discouraging.

[hay rick]

14. Reality is by turns encouraging and discouraging. We can handle the truth.

[NoRethugFriends]

26. Are you not interested in possible information, just cheer-leading?

[Pototan]

45. I prefer this factual story about early voting

In the latest political showdown, Vice President Kamala Harris has garnered a significant lead over former President Donald Trump among those who have already cast their ballots, according to a new USA TODAY/Suffolk University Poll.

The survey, conducted between October 14-18, reveals that Harris holds a 63% to 34% edge, nearly a 2-1 margin over Trump among early voters. This surge in early support gives the Democratic camp a crucial advantage as the election season progresses, as mentioned in a report by USA Today.


https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/us/harris-secures-strong-lead-among-early-voters-will-the-trend-reverse-on-november-5/articleshow/114431846.cms?from=mdr

[totodeinhere]

55. The point is that this is information that we need.

I want to know everything that is going on, good or bad. But it seems that some people at DU only want to hear good news. But myself, I am not going to put on rose colored glasses. I want to know everything. As they say, "knowledge is power." And if there is bad news that will only make me more determined to work for Kamala and encourage my friends to vote for her.

[iemanja]

9. Before COVID and Trump, Republicans led in early voting

Then it switched to Democrats. I guess we'll find out how determinative this is on election night and thereafter.

[LeftInTX]

52. They tend to vote early here. Bexar Co San Antonio

Election Day is popular in rural areas where EV sites are often limited to the County courthouse.
We have 51 EV sites, whereas a rural county has only one and often a 50-100 mile drive to the only site.

I phonebanked to a rural area for a candidate and that is what they told me.

[Elessar Zappa]

10. Just means less Republicans voting on Election Day.

[totodeinhere]

56. Isn't it the same thing when Democrats voter early? And I have read comments at DU before

that celebrated the Democrats' advantage with early voting. We can't have it both ways.

[Elessar Zappa]

60. I think the difference would be

that Republicans this time are actively encouraging their voters to vote early. So it may not be a surge of extra voters, just ones that were going to vote anyway,

[SarcasticSatyr]

11. Those early figures don't really take into account independent voters . . .

and they are breaking heavily toward Harris/Walz.

[Deminpenn]

13. We can be relatively confident Dems are voting for Harris,

What we don't know is who these early voting Rs are choosing. We know somewhere around 10% of Rs will vote for Harris.

Dems have encouraged early voting to be able to concentrate on turning out less likely, sporadic or new voters on election day. And Dems have the money and organization for a ground game. I know the Dems where I am are targeting specific voters with mailers. I'm not getting any, but my Dem registered neighbors are.

We also know Rs have outsourced their ground game with all the attendant problems associated with outsourcing anything.

[onetexan]

21. And 10% is a helluva lot, not to mention independents

Whom as another poster said, heavily favor Dems. I wouldn't get all worked up over the early voting bit.

[Deminpenn]

49. 2020 was really an aberration with covid and all

Trump has been running for re-election non-stop for 2 or 3 years now. For myself, I've always voted on election day because I just enjoy going to the poll and voting. It takes me back to when I was a kid and went in with my parents when they voted. But this year, I was just ready to vote for Harris/Dems and against Trump/Rs right now. I filled out my mail ballot application and took a chance I'd be able to get and vote my ballot the same day at our county courthouse, and was. I suspect I'm not alone and if PA had actual polling places open, a lot more of us would've voted already.

[Prairie Gates]

16. The correlate is that same day won't be so lopsided GOP

The fact that more GOP registered voters are voting early doesn't mean there will be more GOP registered voters voting. It just means there will be fewer voting on Election Day itself.

[Hermit-The-Prog]

17. High turnout favors Democrats; reports of early voting encourages others to get off the couch and vote.

Don't worry about more Republicans voting early than they have in the past. Just GOTV.

[DemonGoddess]

18. the numbers are also not saying whether or not they're voting

for the R on the ticket, or whether they're crossover votes. We've been courting those votes, so I'm not going to worry.

[liberalmediaaddict]

22. Horrible news

Unless these Republicans are showing up early to vote against Trump which is doubtful.

Sadly a lot of Americans can't wait to end democracy and vote in a fascist.

[PortTack]

24. ???? Historically when turn out is high Dems win. The gqp didn't "find" millions of new voters.

Tfg has not been able to bring in new voters, that number is frozen, or actually going down

[jimfields33]

35. They gave trump 74 million in 2020. As long as Harris gets the 81 million, we're golden.

[lees1975]

25. How is that horrible news?

It doesn't really matter when people vote. It matters how many.. Early voting Republicans won't add to the total number of Republican votes. It just means more of them are voting early rather than waiting until election day. It means the number of votes cast on the day of the election will be fewer.

[PortTack]

42. Exactly! One has to laugh..at least I do. Okay..they are voting early..der leader told them to. The story is the

cult goes to the polls? That’s all ya got?

Tfg has done nothing to increase his voter base. If anything it has dwindled. 100 voters equals 100 votes regardless of when they vote

[FakeNoose]

31. High turnout always favors the Democratic candidates

When we vote - early or late - doesn't affect the final outcome.
The thing that hurts us when not enough people bother or care to vote.

[onenote]

34. It's true. Except when its not true. Overly simplistic analysis.

First, in 2012, Obama won re-election even though the turnout was below 55 percent -- 53.8 percent. And there are other examples: Clinton won election in 1992 with turnout at 55.2 percent and re-election in 1996 when turnout fell below 50 percent. Bush won re-election in 2004 when turnout was 55.7 percent. Going back in time, Nixon won election in 1968 when turnout was over 60 percent.

Second, national turnout numbers aren't the best predictor. Biden won in a year where turnout was almost 63 percent, but a very small change in the number of votes in certain states could have resulted in a different outcome. Trump won four states where turnout was over 70 percent. And there were nearly 30 states where turnout was between 60 and 70 percent and Trump won a bunch of them -- in fact he won more than a half dozen states where turnout was between 65 and 70 percent.

Turnout matters for certain, but national turnout numbers aren't the real story. It's turn out in the states that have proven to be closely divided.

[crimycarny]

33. Independents are huge in Nevada

They account for 1/3 of the vote in Nevada. I read that this is due to a surge in younger voters not wanting to identify with either party.

I would assume the younger vote will lean more heavily into D's than R's, at least when it comes to Harris versus Trump. I also think Harris will keep a bigger percentage of the D vote than Trump will of the R vote (in other words Trump will "bleed" more R votes than Harris will bleed D votes)

Will it be enough for Harris to win? Who knows. It's nerve-wracking for sure.

[totodeinhere]

57. If he does win then we need to fight him with every fiber our bodies. n/t

[House of Roberts]

28. Where Rs usually vote,

it's stroll in, vote, and stroll out.
Where Dems usually vote, it's stand in long lines outdoors, possibly in bad weather. I'll go with the more Dems vote early, the shorter the lines will be for Dems on election night.

[LeftInTX]

53. Not here! They go to the crowded sites.

Where they live.


In heavily Democratic areas, turnout is low and so are the lines.

I'm going to an inner city site this afternoon. Avoiding the lines.

[tavernier]

30. That's odd

Colbert reported today that Dems were up 2 to 1 in early voting. I think I believe his sources over that bird cage liner.

[iemanja]

38. When you rely on comedians for your news

You're in trouble. We could actually discuss what the article says, but you don't seem to care.

[obamanut2012]

48. Why in the world are you being so snide???

[Pototan]

47. Colbert was referring to this article

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/us/harris-secures-strong-lead-among-early-voters-will-the-trend-reverse-on-november-5/articleshow/114431846.cms?from=mdr

[jgmiller]

36. The total vote is what matters but someone said something I didn't think of

Hearing about the high number of early and mail in voters might encourage others to remember to vote. If dems turn out we win, dems out number them by a large amount. That's always been our ulitmate problem is the turnout. Anything that helps that helps Harris in the end.

It's always fun to critize how American's don't vote and there is truth to that but a lot of the time it's just because they have busy lives and forget. That's why seniors vote in such large numbers, it's not just because they are older and wiser it's because they have more time available in many instances. If the early vote stories on the news make people remember then that's great, regardless of what the split is.

Having said this, if the early vote split was 20% Dem and 80% Rep then I'd say we're in big trouble but that's not what is happening.

[LeftInTX]

54. That's so true about older people.

When my kids moved out, they would come vote here, if they voted at all, because they didn't know of any other early voting sites. Didn't know how to figure it out etc etc. Didn't want to bother to figure it out etc etc

And now that I'm a canvassar, many of our D3s, (strong dems) don't know how to access the local elections website.

[Rocknation]

39. Male cattle droppings: More Republicans voting early doesn't mean that they're voting for Trump

or does it make more sense that more Democrats are voting early in order to vote for Trump?


Rocknation

[PatrickforB]

40. Just more noise. It is like a constant low grade noise that jacks up your nerves until you don't even

realize how stressed you are.

If Trump and his MAGAs are soundly defeated, like in a landslide, maybe we can get rid of them.

But this campaign sure is a cash cow for cable streaming, isn't it?

[slightlv]

41. I'm prone to take this with a grain of salt right now

(and maybe that's not a good idea). But all I've been reading and hearing up to now is how the Democrats lead in early voting this cycle. And now, this story? Maybe it's somebody trying to light a fuse under the Magats; maybe it's someone trying to discourage the Democrats from voting; maybe it's the truth. At this point, there's so much disinformation and misinformation out there, I tend to chuck it all and work as hard as I can work to get Harris elected. I'll admit, tho, it does fray the nerves... and I only have a few fuzzy strands of nerves left! (LOL)

[SleeplessinSoCal]

43. If the Cheneys and other Republicans are influencing Republicans,

Maybe the quiet vote.

🙏🙏🙏

[Figarosmom]

44. My take on this is

Those Republicans that are early voting are mostly just like us. We cannot vote soon enough to rid ourselves of the orange menace. It's like an exorcism. . The act of voting is the casting off of demons,, it's the ceremony and the sooner the better.

[samsingh]

50. i'm worried that we are starting to lag behind in early voting - i thought we had the enthusiasm and momentum.

i'm not trying to be alarmist.

of course, some of the republicans voting could be for Harris.

[Freethinker65]

51. How many of those Republicans are voting for Harris?

[maxsolomon]

58. I can't believe the New York Times is at it again!

Oh, wait...

[Jose Garcia]

59. Republicans currently have a 100k advantage in FL

https://www.freshtake.vote/2024G/index.php

[ificandream]

61. Funny how the Orange Idiot told Repubs in 2020 not to vote early. And now he's changed his mind.

A pretty obvious stupid mistake. You think Repubs would take a lesson from that that the guy is dumb as a rock.