Early voting: 47% Dem, 44% Rep, 9% Ind is voting 61%-35% Harris-Trump

[samsingh]

This discussion thread was locked as off-topic by Omaha Steve (a host of the Latest Breaking News forum).

Source: Daily Kos

Several polls out lately have asked people if they’ve already voted, and if they have, how they have voted. Here are the polls and the Harris-Trump percentages those early voters have said they voted.

ABC/Ipsos: Harris 62-33
CNN: Harris 61-36
NYT/Siena: Harris 58-40
HarrisX poll: Harris 61-32
USAToday/Suffolk: Harris 63-34
That’s 5 polls all showing roughly the same thing. There was also a Marist poll of 3 swing states showing Harris up 10-12 points in the early voting of each state, but I’ll just use national polls. Swing states will be closer than the national average (which is why they’re swing states), but there are also blue states where Harris will be ahead even more.

That’s an average of 61.2% for Harris, 35% for Trump.

What this means is that a partisan split of approx. 47% Dem, 44% Rep, 9% Ind is voting approx. 61%-35% Harris-Trump.

Read more: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/10/27/2280123/-Early-voting-47-Dem-44-Rep-9-Ind-is-voting-61-35-Harris-Trump

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This is what i believe is happening with the higher republican voting. Based on all the polls in the article representing real data (not assumptions), the trend is where i would expect it to be.

Get the vote out!

[Leghorn21]

1. Well samsingh, thank you, this is *exactly* what I think is ACTUALLY happening

Cautiously optimistic here
Tryin ta stay cool, verrrry cooooool.........

[ColinC]

2. One caveat to this is the poll jumbers are almost a week old

Whereas the early vote numbers are pretty up to date.

[Mr.WeRP]

4. The current early voting data demographic/party splits remain the same though

[ColinC]

7. Yeah. Im looking for as much of a "but where is the catch?!" As possible

And am coming up mostly dry.

[Mr.WeRP]

8. Just over a week to go! Let's do this!

[samsingh]

26. Yes!!

[getagrip_already]

3. This seems to say a high percentage of indies and repubs are breaking for harris?

Even if all the dems and all the indies are harris voters, thats only 54%.

That leaves 7% that could only come from republican voters.

[ColinC]

5. Which is a huge percentage of republicans.

[Phil1967]

16. It may be a huge percentage,

but considering that up to 20% of republicans voted against Trump in the primaries, 7% sounds very reasonable.

[ColinC]

17. Well 7% is how it translated to the overall numbers

Out of Republicans alone, its looking like close 30%, right?

[Phil1967]

19. You got a point,

but I don't think it would have to be close to 30% republican votes. 10 to 15% would do it, still in line with what happened during the republican primaries.

[ColinC]

21. I expected maybe that amount to not vote. But to outright vote for Harris?! This is pretty shocking

[TheRickles]

12. Reply deleted

[samsingh]

27. that's enough to flip alot of races

fingers crossed that it only gets stronger in our favor

[Novara]

6. Keep in mind that people don't always tell the truth

I suspect these numbers are right, but I ain't countin' chickens until they're hatched. Right now, these are still eggs.

People can lie, and some will, just to fuck with whoever is asking the questions. The only way we'll know the truth is after all the votes are counted.

[Farmer-Rick]

9. Thanks for posting this

I feel confident when I'm out and about, seeing the enthusiasm for Harris and the disgust for Trump. I can understand why the polls, especially the aggregate pollster like 548, are wrong because they are being manipulated. I can see how you can change the betting averages like in Polymarket with lots of bets. So I'm optimistic.

But then all the corporate media says it's neck and neck. I start thinking I misinterpreted the energy. I get worried that the political analysis of the manipulated polls are trying to justify something they can't accept. Then I get worried all over again.

So it's good to see exit polling from corporate media showing Harris with a very big lead. So, I'm back to optimistic.

[samsingh]

28. the aggregators are purposely trying to drive the tight race argument

there is no other explanation of why they would include 5 iterations of a republican slanted poll into the average

[wiggs]

10. It would be good to think, once again, that ideas, character, policy, honesty, words, and track records matter and

voters just don't go to their partisan corners in all cases.

The 50-year goal of RW think tanks has been to control information and resources enough so that in the absence of information and knowledge...partisanship is king.

[Karadeniz]

11. Landslide !!!!

[wordstroken]

13. This is great news!!! Thank you, samsingh.

[RussBLib]

14. hopefully those margins will spill over into Senate and House races

...that would be ideal. Imagine taking the White House, the Senate and the House....

https://russblib.blogspot.com

[CaptainTruth]

15. I've seen analysts say up to 10% of R ballots could go for Harris.

The numbers you posted (47% Dem, 44% Rep, 9% Ind voting approx. 61%-35% Harris-Trump) support that.

I've been thinking she would get 3-4% of R ballots but if she gets 8-9% (or more) that really changes the picture.

[Wounded Bear]

18. Looks good. I hope it holds...

[ReRe]

20. Blue skies lookin' at me,

nothin but blue skies do I see!

[former9thward]

22. It is funny how these polls were attacked.

And now they are to be believed. Maybe we should wait until Election day.

[Rocknation]

23. Works for me

...Trump is not even getting all of the GOP vote (35% of the vote vs. 44% GOP voters)...(T)hat means...a large (percentage) of the GOP early vote is voting for Harris.

Well, duh dot com -- especially since I called this shot back in December (with an assist from Thomas Michael Crooks back in July).

With a week left, it is now time to forget the polls and get TO the polls...DON'T wait if you don't have to...VOTE if you haven't already!!!


Rocknation

[LymphocyteLover]

24. this is great of course but the pattern has always been for Repubs to wait until the day of the election where they will

be voting in higher proportions.

But this is WAY higher than early voting has been before for Dems IIRC

[liberal N proud]

25. Turnout is heavy

Traditionally, that had been good for Democrats.

[Omaha Steve]

29. AFTER a review by forum hosts LOCKING

Daily Kos is not an appropriate source for LBN. Also polls are not allowed in LBN. They are analysis.

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