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WSHazel

(283 posts)
Thu Oct 31, 2024, 11:55 AM Oct 31

CNN GA and NC update

Source: CNN

More than half of the likely electorate in both Georgia (59%) and North Carolina (52%) say they’ve already cast their ballots, with those voters splitting narrowly toward Harris by a 7-point margin in Georgia and by 6 points in North Carolina.

Read more: https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/31/politics/cnn-poll-georgia-north-carolina/index.html



A 7 point margin with over half the vote cast in Georgia is not a narrow margin. Nor is a 6 point margin with over half the vote cast in North Carolina. Party ID stats for both states actually give Republicans a slight edge, so Harris' leads in these two states are looking better and better.

CNN has decided to die on the hill of its LV screen. When over half the vote, split evenly by party ID, is coming back with Harris with a material lead, maybe their LV screen is a bit off. We will know soon enough if they are right.
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CNN GA and NC update (Original Post) WSHazel Oct 31 OP
6% and 7% is not a narrow lead. pwb Oct 31 #1
If the GA data is correct, Trump would need to win on election day by more than 10 to have a shot Johnny2X2X Oct 31 #8
Polling before and after Hieronymus Phact Oct 31 #12
OMG! I know that's the first thing I noticed that his HUGE! Coexist Oct 31 #11
Came to say it. Seconded. mahina Oct 31 #20
So true Smooth155 Nov 1 #31
No chance of winning by 10% Polybius Nov 1 #35
No, the comment was Trump Deminpenn Nov 1 #37
When do they start counting the early vote/absentee ballots? Novara Oct 31 #2
GA will be quick.... not sure about NC getagrip_already Oct 31 #9
I Think... GB_RN Oct 31 #16
Here In NC... GB_RN Oct 31 #15
In most states it is cou ted before election day and reported almost immediately after polls close ColinC Oct 31 #28
After the 2020 election, PA Deminpenn Nov 1 #38
This message was self-deleted by its author ColinC Nov 1 #39
This is great news! ColinC Nov 1 #40
another Dems in Disarray WhiteTara Oct 31 #3
why ask why? Always about the money derived from democratsruletheday Nov 1 #32
Oh. My mind hasn't really WhiteTara Nov 1 #33
lol...greeeeeeeeeeed democratsruletheday Nov 1 #34
What you said. sinkingfeeling Oct 31 #4
A seven point lead is huge with that much volume JT45242 Oct 31 #5
Nbc site breaks it down for some demographics SheltieLover Oct 31 #26
Let's "narrowly" beat that orange mfer awesomerwb1 Oct 31 #6
Yes that isn't a narrow lead, but how would they know? Those states JohnSJ Oct 31 #7
They ask people who already voted how they voted ColinC Oct 31 #29
Thanks. I hope that is valid and they are being honest. JohnSJ Oct 31 #30
NC voter registration statistics from the NCSBE littlemissmartypants Oct 31 #10
A lot of those "unaffiliated voters" are lined with a party. mwooldri Oct 31 #14
One qualifier WSHazel Oct 31 #13
CNN with a characterization of moniss Oct 31 #17
I've been calling the MSM "Plutocracy Pravda" and "CorpoPravda" for years. nt hvn_nbr_2 Oct 31 #22
PEOPLE: That lead IS NARROW. Why? Because more Dems than Repubs vote early. Potentially a lot more. jvill Oct 31 #18
More REPUBS have voted early in both NC and GA WSHazel Oct 31 #19
It's a wide narrow. Strelnikov_ Oct 31 #21
"...narrowly by a 7% margin"? WTAF, can the gotta-keep-the-horserace-in-play get any stupider? n/t TygrBright Oct 31 #23
Only in American MSM... WinstonSmith4740 Oct 31 #24
CNN is so fucking partisan for f'ing GOP assholes, it is disgusting... Demsrule86 Oct 31 #25
I heard first thing this am, on MSNBC Bev54 Oct 31 #27
I think they mean narrow for early voting Polybius Nov 1 #36

Johnny2X2X

(21,822 posts)
8. If the GA data is correct, Trump would need to win on election day by more than 10 to have a shot
Thu Oct 31, 2024, 12:18 PM
Oct 31

She has built a big lead, we'll see if it can hold.

The thing about having already voted is that it's 100% concrete where as likely voters will still be some people not showing on election day.

Polybius

(18,085 posts)
35. No chance of winning by 10%
Fri Nov 1, 2024, 10:32 AM
Nov 1

The vast majority of the latest voters will be Republicans, so that 6% and 7% lead will shrink, not expand.

Deminpenn

(16,338 posts)
37. No, the comment was Trump
Fri Nov 1, 2024, 12:30 PM
Nov 1

would have to win election day voters by 10 pts to have a chance at winning.

Novara

(6,115 posts)
2. When do they start counting the early vote/absentee ballots?
Thu Oct 31, 2024, 11:59 AM
Oct 31

We are not likely to know who won on election day. Some states won't begin counting mail in ballots until election day, some allow for them to be received after elections day (postmarked by election day), etc.

Unless it's a blowout, we probably won't know for several days.

getagrip_already

(17,486 posts)
9. GA will be quick.... not sure about NC
Thu Oct 31, 2024, 12:20 PM
Oct 31

GA made some changes after 2016 that should speed up reporting. Unless it was mucked with by the new election board.

Likewise, FL will be quick. We should know both the same night.

If we get either, put a fork in him.

GB_RN

(3,180 posts)
16. I Think...
Thu Oct 31, 2024, 01:03 PM
Oct 31

That the state’s court system has put the kibosh on their attempts to make things difficult and allow for shenanigans.

GB_RN

(3,180 posts)
15. Here In NC...
Thu Oct 31, 2024, 01:02 PM
Oct 31

If I’m not mistaken and remember correctly, they are counted as they are cast: We use optical scan ballots and you put in the scanner when you’re done marking it. The totals aren’t available for submission until Election Night, however.

ColinC

(10,845 posts)
28. In most states it is cou ted before election day and reported almost immediately after polls close
Thu Oct 31, 2024, 05:40 PM
Oct 31

Pennsylvania and Wisconsin I think are two exceptions.

Deminpenn

(16,338 posts)
38. After the 2020 election, PA
Fri Nov 1, 2024, 12:35 PM
Nov 1

legislature passed a bill, signed by our D gov, that mandates continuous counting of mail ballots.

Mail ballots can't be opened until election day, but some counties could bring election workers in early to begin the process. I'm sure some counties have scheduled shifts for the continuous count mandate.

Response to Deminpenn (Reply #38)

JT45242

(2,954 posts)
5. A seven point lead is huge with that much volume
Thu Oct 31, 2024, 12:04 PM
Oct 31

If you had a poll with that many people the MOE would be tiny.

Would love to see racial and gender breakdown.

Plus the line from another post "we're all Puerto Rican now."

Reminds of the comedian who talked about growing up and being asked "what kind of Mexican are you?" When white or black people think all Hispanic heritages are part of Mexico. Might have been fluffy or someone from the 80s...

JohnSJ

(96,715 posts)
7. Yes that isn't a narrow lead, but how would they know? Those states
Thu Oct 31, 2024, 12:13 PM
Oct 31

do not announce the results until after the polls close?

I don’t trust the polls or their sampling

littlemissmartypants

(25,671 posts)
10. NC voter registration statistics from the NCSBE
Thu Oct 31, 2024, 12:20 PM
Oct 31
Of note: Unaffiliated voters make up the largest group followed by the Democratic group and then Republicans.


Voter Registration Statistics

Reporting Period: 10/26/2024 which is the most recent available data.

https://vt.ncsbe.gov/RegStat/Results/?date=10%2F26%2F2024

Constitution: 463
Democratic: 2,437,503
Green: 3,533
Justice for All: 448
Libertarian: 49,735
No Labels: 24,513
Republican: 2,327,013
Unaffiliated: 2,948,570
We the People: 1,263
White: 4,980,453
Black: 1,535,702
American Indian/Alaska Native: 56,855
Asian: 135,344
Native Hawaiian/Pacific Islander: 985
Multiracial: 39,965
Other: 309,660
Undesignated: 734,077
Hispanic: 323,678
Male: 3,272,542
Female: 3,840,530
Total: 7,793,041


❤️

mwooldri

(10,419 posts)
14. A lot of those "unaffiliated voters" are lined with a party.
Thu Oct 31, 2024, 12:46 PM
Oct 31

This unaffiliated voters is a Democrat in disguise. It's so that I can cross over and ratfuck the Republican primary if needs be.

WSHazel

(283 posts)
13. One qualifier
Thu Oct 31, 2024, 12:45 PM
Oct 31

Stuart Stevens, among others, do not like extrapolating early voter data. I think he was right for his day, but many more people vote early than 20 years ago, so the early voter universe should behave more statistically consistent with the overall voter population. I also understand the argument that 2020 is a bad proxy for this year, because the 2020 early vote was so heavily weighted Democrat, so it was clear that Biden was pulling votes forward with the early vote and Trump still had a lot of votes left to get.

This year the early vote has a slight Republican lean, which means that Harris still has a lot of votes left to get, and Trump is going to start running out of runway. Many of the polls are treating the 2024 early vote just like the 2020 early vote, even though their composition is entirely different.

jvill

(380 posts)
18. PEOPLE: That lead IS NARROW. Why? Because more Dems than Repubs vote early. Potentially a lot more.
Thu Oct 31, 2024, 01:49 PM
Oct 31

We don’t know for sure because there is no baseline to

WSHazel

(283 posts)
19. More REPUBS have voted early in both NC and GA
Thu Oct 31, 2024, 02:18 PM
Oct 31

Actually, Republicans are outvoting Democrats in the early vote in AZ, NC, GA and NV this year. Democrats have modest leads by party ID in WI and MI early vote. Democrats have a big lead by Party ID in PA, but the early vote will probably not be a huge factor in that race, likely around 25-30% of the total vote.

Despite more Republicans than Democrats having voted in NC and GA, early exits are showing Harris with a sizable lead. A lot can change between now and election day, but this is a very promising development.

WinstonSmith4740

(3,157 posts)
24. Only in American MSM...
Thu Oct 31, 2024, 03:53 PM
Oct 31

Seriously, CNN? Can you be any more obvious? These are not "narrow" leads. I'll be willing to bet if the Rethugs were leading by that much, it would be reported as an "insurmountable lead", and that Harris should just pack it up.

Demsrule86

(71,030 posts)
25. CNN is so fucking partisan for f'ing GOP assholes, it is disgusting...
Thu Oct 31, 2024, 05:08 PM
Oct 31

6 and 7 is not close. It is breaking Kamala Harris's favor. Now we are seeing a point where they can't really hide it. And some will knock it off to save their reputation when the blue wave hits. Lebron just endorsed Kamala Harris!

Bev54

(11,917 posts)
27. I heard first thing this am, on MSNBC
Thu Oct 31, 2024, 05:37 PM
Oct 31

Ana Cabrerra (spelling?) that Harris was winning by 8% and I did not hear what state, wasn’t reallly listening well. What I did hear her say was that 8% was still within the margin of error. Since when is 8% within the margin of error? WTF are they even talking about, that is a real stretch to keep the horse race alive.

Polybius

(18,085 posts)
36. I think they mean narrow for early voting
Fri Nov 1, 2024, 10:35 AM
Nov 1

In 2020, Democrats had a 20 point lead in early voting, then on Election Day Republicans all came out to vote.

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