U.S. economy added 12,000 jobs in October, far less than expected; unemployment rate at 4.1%

[Joe Cool]

Source: CNBC

Nonfarm payrolls were expected to increase by 100,000 in October, according to the Dow Jones consensus estimate.

Read more: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/01/us-jobs-report-october-2024.html

[BootinUp]

1. And yet experts said the number could be anywhere from negative to 180000. So 110k was a never expected.

[mahatmakanejeeves]

2. Yikes, as the kids say. That's barely over half the capacity of the Madison Square Garden.

Or Biden's margin in Georgia in 2020. From the source:

Payroll employment essentially unchanged in October (+12,000); jobless rate holds at 4.1%
Total nonfarm payroll employment was essentially unchanged in October (+12,000), and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1 percent. Employment continued to trend up in health care and government. Temporary help services lost jobs. Employment declined in manufacturing due to strike...

Economic News Release USDL-24-2233

Employment Situation Summary
Transmission of material in this news release is embargoed until 8:30 a.m. (ET) Friday, November 1, 2024

Technical information:
Household data: [phone] * [e-mail] * www.bls.gov/cps
Establishment data: [phone] * [e-mail] * www.bls.gov/ces

Media contact: [phone] * [e-mail]


THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION -- OCTOBER 2024


Total nonfarm payroll employment was essentially unchanged in October (+12,000), and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in health care and government. Temporary help services lost jobs. Employment declined in manufacturing due to strike activity.

This news release presents statistics from two monthly surveys. The household survey measures labor force status, including unemployment, by demographic characteristics. The establishment survey measures nonfarm employment, hours, and earnings by industry. For more information about the concepts and statistical methodology used in these two surveys, see the Technical Note.

_____________________________________________________________________

Hurricanes Helene and Milton

October data from the household and establishment surveys are the first collected since Hurricanes Helene and Milton struck the United States. These hurricanes caused severe damage in the southeast portion of the country. See the notes at the end of this news release for more information.
_____________________________________________________________________


Household Survey Data

The unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1 percent in October, and the number of unemployed people was little changed at 7.0 million. These measures are higher than a year earlier, when the jobless rate was 3.8 percent, and the number of unemployed people was 6.4 million. (See table A-1.)

Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult men (3.9 percent), adult women (3.6 percent), teenagers (13.8 percent), Whites (3.8 percent), Blacks (5.7 percent), Asians (3.9 percent), and Hispanics (5.1 percent) showed little or no change over the month. (See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.)

Among the unemployed, the number of permanent job losers edged up to 1.8 million in October. The number of people on temporary layoff changed little at 846,000. (See table A-11.)

The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) was little changed at 1.6 million in October. This measure is up from 1.3 million a year earlier. In October, the long-term unemployed accounted for 22.9 percent of all unemployed people. (See table A-12.)

Both the labor force participation rate, at 62.6 percent, and the employment-population ratio, at 60.0 percent, changed little in October. These measures have shown little change over the year. (See table A-1.)

The number of people employed part time for economic reasons was little changed at 4.6 million in October. These individuals would have preferred full-time employment but were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs. (See table A-8.)

The number of people not in the labor force who currently want a job, at 5.7 million, was essentially unchanged in October. These individuals were not counted as unemployed because they were not actively looking for work during the 4 weeks preceding the survey or were unavailable to take a job. (See table A-1.)

Among those not in the labor force who wanted a job, the number of people marginally attached to the labor force, at 1.6 million, was little changed in October. These individuals wanted and were available for work and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months but had not looked for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. The number of discouraged workers, a subset of the marginally attached who believed that no jobs were available for them, changed little at 379,000 in October. (See Summary table A.)

Establishment Survey Data

Total nonfarm payroll employment was essentially unchanged in October (+12,000), following an average monthly gain of 194,000 over the prior 12 months. In October, employment continued to trend up in health care and government. Temporary help services lost jobs. Employment declined in manufacturing due to strike activity. (See table B-1.)

Health care added 52,000 jobs in October, in line with the average monthly gain of 58,000 over the prior 12 months. Over the month, employment rose in ambulatory health care services (+36,000) and nursing and residential care facilities (+9,000).

Employment in government continued its upward trend in October (+40,000), similar to the average monthly gain of 43,000 over the prior 12 months. Over the month, employment continued to trend up in state government (+18,000).

Within professional and business services, employment in temporary help services declined by 49,000 in October. Temporary help services employment has decreased by 577,000 since reaching a peak in March 2022.

Manufacturing employment decreased by 46,000 in October, reflecting a decline of 44,000 in transportation equipment manufacturing that was largely due to strike activity.

Employment in construction changed little in October (+8,000). The industry had added an average of 20,000 jobs per month over the prior 12 months. Over the month, nonresidential specialty trade contractors added 14,000 jobs.

Employment showed little or no change over the month in other major industries, including mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction; wholesale trade; retail trade; transportation and warehousing; information; financial activities; leisure and hospitality; and other services.

In October, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 13 cents, or 0.4 percent, to $35.46. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 4.0 percent. In October, average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees rose by 12 cents, or 0.4 percent, to $30.48. (See tables B-3 and B-8.)

The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls remained at 34.3 hours in October. In manufacturing, the average workweek was little changed at 39.9 hours, and overtime edged down by 0.1 hour to 2.8 hours. The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls edged down by 0.1 hour to 33.7 hours. (See tables B-2 and B-7.)

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for August was revised down by 81,000, from +159,000 to +78,000, and the change for September was revised down by 31,000, from +254,000 to +223,000. With these revisions, employment in August and September combined is 112,000 lower than previously reported. (Monthly revisions result from additional reports received from businesses and government agencies since the last published estimates and from the recalculation of seasonal factors.)

_____________
The Employment Situation for November is scheduled to be released on Friday, December 6, 2024, at 8:30 a.m. (ET).

* * * * *

Facilities for Sensory Impaired

Information from these releases will be made available to sensory impaired individuals upon request. Voice phone: [phone], Federal Relay Services: 1-800-877-8339.

-- -- -- -- -- --

[Hotler]

3. Nobody wants to work any more.

[nitpicked]

4. US hiring slows but hurricane fallout blurs findings

https://abcnews.go.com/Business/jobs-report-set-released-days-election/story?id=115268994

U.S. hiring slowed in October, but fallout from hurricanes and labor strikes likely caused an undercount of the nation’s workers.
(snip)

The hiring in October amounted to a sharp slowdown from 254,000 jobs added in September, though it should be interpreted with a significant dose of caution, experts told ABC News prior to the data release.

“Workers who weren’t paid during the survey period due to work disruptions won’t be counted as employed, and workers and businesses may be too busy dealing with the aftermath of the storms to respond to surveys,” Martha Gimbel, executive director of the Budget Lab at Yale University and former director of economic research at Indeed, told ABC News in a statement.

Hurricane Milton made landfall in Florida as a Category 3 hurricane on Oct. 9. It ultimately left millions without power and much of the state’s gas stations without fuel. In late September, Hurricane Helene made landfall in Florida, prompting recovery efforts that have continued for weeks afterward.

Additionally, roughly 33,000 Boeing workers walked off the job in mid-September, an action that's expected to manifest as missing jobs for the first time on the October report.

In all, the combination of hurricanes and work stoppages is estimated to have pushed the level of hiring 50,000 jobs lower than where it otherwise would have stood, Bank of America Global Research said in a note to clients this week.
(snip)

[twodogsbarking]

5. Unemployment at four percent. That is as about as low as it gets. It really is not an issue.

[House of Roberts]

6. Why do you think unemployment is at four percent?

[Prairie Gates]

7. It's literally in the title of the post and in the report

Do you think it's not? If you think it's not at 4% (OK, fine, 4.1%), why do you think it's not?

[House of Roberts]

8. I asked you a very specific question.

I did not imply I thought it was or wasn't at 4%.
BTW, the title of the post/report doesn't answer why the unemployment is at 4% either.

[Prairie Gates]

9. You didn't ask me anything - you asked twodogsbarking

Is this not in the title of the original post: "unemployment rate at 4.1%" ? I mean, details, man, I know. It's hard.

But I'll play anyway. I believe unemployment is at 4.1% because that's what the Bureau of Labor Statistics says it is.

[House of Roberts]

10. You are correct, I didn't ask you,

but that's because this system only displays the reply from My Posts. I should have returned to the View Whole Page option and I would have seen that. My apologies.
If I didn't ask YOU the question then, why did you take it upon yourself to answer in their stead?

[Prairie Gates]

11. This is a discussion board

Your posts are public, and anyone can jump in. I am extremely skeptical of people who call the unemployment rate provided by the BLS into question, because they often do so with some bizarre agenda, and that's often packaged with truly nutty conspiratorial thinking. Of course, I'm not saying that's true of you. You asked me why I jumped in. I jumped in because it seems like you were calling the clearly stated unemployment rate provided by the BLS into question. Maybe you were, maybe you weren't. You seem unwilling to say. But that's why.

[House of Roberts]

12. If you're going to 'jump in' on a question directed specifically at another,

you should be able, and willing to respond to the QUESTION AS ASKED, and not evade by claiming 'I didn't ask you', then dodge actually answering with 'I believe unemployment is at 4.1% because that's what the Bureau of Labor Statistics says it is'. I never said it wasn't. I was curious what twodogsbarking thought as to WHY (there's that word again) unemployment was that figure.

[Prairie Gates]

14. Saying that the unemployment rate is what the BLS says it is isn't a dodge

Are you asking why unemployment is low, or are you asking why someone would think the rate is accurately stated as 4.1%?

I thought you were asking the second. Was I wrong about that?

Are you asking the first? You want a full explanation of why the employment rate is currently low, like what are the causes for the current low rate of unemployment?

[House of Roberts]

15. I give up.

You just want to argue and I have a life. Good day and may the good news be yours.

[Prairie Gates]

17. Yeah, I'm sure that's what's happening here

[wolfie001]

18. Contrarianism

That's a philosophy in itself. BLS is looking at real, raw data and then making their judgements. Free from political interference.

[twodogsbarking]

13. There are people in this world (on DU) who just like to disagree. Anyone disagree?

[Miguelito Loveless]

16. September Jobs Report

U.S. job creation roared higher in September as payrolls surged by 254,000

[onenote]

19. As revised, the September report shows a gain of 223,000

down 31,000 from the initial report you quote. Still a very good number and much higher than what was exxpected.

The August number also was revised downward and by a more significant amount -- from 159,000 to 78,000 -- a downward revision of more than 50%

From the report:
"The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for August was revised down by 81,000, from
+159,000 to +78,000, and the change for September was revised down by 31,000, from +254,000 to
+223,000."

What's particularly odd is that the original August number was 142,000 and was revised upward in October to 159,000 only to be revised downward to 78,000 in the latest report.

[Mr.Bill]

20. In other news, the Dow Jones

stocks are up 475 points.