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Wicked Blue

(6,722 posts)
Sun Nov 3, 2024, 10:53 AM Nov 3

The greatest presidential predictor has made his FINAL pick for Trump vs. Harris: Who will win?

Source: NJ.com

By Kevin Manahan | NJ Advance Media for NJ.com

The polls are tight — and many are considered fake. The betting markets reportedly are rigged. So, who is a voter to believe when searching for a prediction on who will be elected president on Nov. 5: Vice President Kamala Harris or former president Donald Trump?

Well, so-called presidential election Nostradamus who has nailed every presidential election except one since 1984, is sticking with the pick he made months ago, when the polls were against her.

Harris will beat Trump on Tuesday, said Allan Lichtman — who predicted Trump would win in 2016, when most national polls showed Hillary Clinton far ahead and that Trump would lose against Joe Biden in 2020, told USA Today.

“Nothing has changed to change my prediction that I made on Sept. 5, in defiance of the polls,” Lichtman said in a YouTube video.

Read more: https://www.nj.com/politics/2024/11/the-greatest-presidential-predictor-has-made-his-final-pick-for-trump-vs-harris-who-will-win.html

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The greatest presidential predictor has made his FINAL pick for Trump vs. Harris: Who will win? (Original Post) Wicked Blue Nov 3 OP
Interesting that the only time he was "wrong" was in 2000 Rachel M at 6 pm Nov 3 #1
so basically he has a perfect record. Native Nov 3 #5
Yes, because Gore actually did win n/t TexasBushwhacker Nov 3 #8
Indeed he does. dchill Nov 3 #11
2000 was outright theft IbogaProject Nov 3 #9
I had thought it was going to be the rooster in "Chicken Poop Bingo." LastLiberal in PalmSprings Nov 3 #2
He made his prediction two months ago Polybius Nov 3 #3
The article mentions that he made this prediction 2 months ago, and he is now saying he still stands by that prediction Native Nov 3 #6
I understand that Polybius Nov 3 #7
Because 2 months ago... Whatthe_Firetruck Nov 3 #13
gotcha Native Nov 3 #19
I've been watching Prof. Lichman's show on youtube. Very informative, so it's no surprise we're now seeing the surge for onetexan Nov 3 #14
Yup, he's great Polybius Nov 3 #16
Thanks for the link! EllieBC Nov 3 #4
I hope this news doesn't convince any Harris-Walz supporters they don't need to bother actually VOTING. Beartracks Nov 3 #10
Thank you for posting this. PoindexterOglethorpe Nov 3 #12
Why would "The betting markets reportedly are rigged." KS Toronado Nov 3 #15
Excellent angrychair Nov 3 #17
OMG I hope he's right 🙏 🙏🙏🙏 TommieMommy Nov 3 #18
As they say in the investing world, past performance is no guarantee of future results. LudwigPastorius Nov 3 #20
Betting markets don't mean a fuck thing when it comes to the goddamn election. MAGA cowards are shitting the bed. SoFlaBro Nov 3 #21

Rachel M at 6 pm

(137 posts)
1. Interesting that the only time he was "wrong" was in 2000
Sun Nov 3, 2024, 11:27 AM
Nov 3

Lichtman is known for correctly predicting every election from 1984 through 2020, with the exception of Bush-Gore in 2000.

From Wikipedia:

"The Keys to the White House, also known as the 13 Keys, is a prediction system for determining the outcome of presidential elections in the United States. ... The system is a thirteen-point checklist that uses true-or-false statements: when five or fewer items on the checklist are false, the nominee of the incumbent party is predicted to win the election, but when six or more items on the checklist are false, the nominee of the challenging party is predicted to win."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Keys_to_the_White_House

IbogaProject

(3,710 posts)
9. 2000 was outright theft
Sun Nov 3, 2024, 12:04 PM
Nov 3

So his model couldn't predict that B$ in Florida sending to the SC. Gore actually got more votes in Fl in 2000.

2. I had thought it was going to be the rooster in "Chicken Poop Bingo."
Sun Nov 3, 2024, 11:29 AM
Nov 3

The square where the bird poops will predict the winner. It's as accurate as most of the polls I've seen. Chicken Poop Bingo

Native

(6,666 posts)
6. The article mentions that he made this prediction 2 months ago, and he is now saying he still stands by that prediction
Sun Nov 3, 2024, 11:42 AM
Nov 3

Polybius

(18,108 posts)
7. I understand that
Sun Nov 3, 2024, 11:46 AM
Nov 3

I just don't agree that standing by a prediction is news again. Also, he has always stood by his predictions.

Whatthe_Firetruck

(605 posts)
13. Because 2 months ago...
Sun Nov 3, 2024, 01:39 PM
Nov 3

Mid to low information voters weren't paying attention.

This close to the election, more people are looking at predictions so it's relevant again.

onetexan

(13,911 posts)
14. I've been watching Prof. Lichman's show on youtube. Very informative, so it's no surprise we're now seeing the surge for
Sun Nov 3, 2024, 01:40 PM
Nov 3

Harris Walz the past couple weeks. He's been unwavering in his prediction.

EllieBC

(3,381 posts)
4. Thanks for the link!
Sun Nov 3, 2024, 11:37 AM
Nov 3

The wiki link is pretty cool at explaining how he comes to his conclusions and predictions.

Beartracks

(13,606 posts)
10. I hope this news doesn't convince any Harris-Walz supporters they don't need to bother actually VOTING.
Sun Nov 3, 2024, 12:43 PM
Nov 3

I'm still smarting from going to bed confident in 2016 and waking up in an alternate timeline where the dumbest moron of a Republican got put in the White House.

=================

KS Toronado

(19,633 posts)
15. Why would "The betting markets reportedly are rigged."
Sun Nov 3, 2024, 01:46 PM
Nov 3

These betting sites are saying TSF is going to win the election but Kamala will win the popular vote.

For every dollar one bets on Kamala they'll give you approximately $2.50 if she does win. That's more
than double your money.

If they are betting on him winning the swing states using some reQublican underhandedness they
are forgetting Biden's newfound powers of immunity from the SCOTUS.

SoFlaBro

(3,358 posts)
21. Betting markets don't mean a fuck thing when it comes to the goddamn election. MAGA cowards are shitting the bed.
Sun Nov 3, 2024, 11:21 PM
Nov 3
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