Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member Latest Breaking News Editorials & Other Articles General Discussion The DU Lounge All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search

BumRushDaShow

(142,976 posts)
Sun Nov 10, 2024, 10:47 AM Nov 10

Allan Lichtman Says He Received Death Threats

Source: Newsweek

Published Nov 10, 2024 at 4:49 AM EST


Political historian Allan Lichtman has said that he received death threats after his incorrect prediction that Vice President Kamala Harris would win the 2024 presidential election over Donald Trump.

Lichtman's model, which has accurately predicted nine out of the last 10 elections prior to this year, assesses the standing of the incumbent party using 13 true-or-false "keys" across areas like the economy, foreign policy, and domestic politics.

He said in a post on X, formerly Twitter: "We've faced death threats, doxxing, swatting, and intimidation at our doorstep. We will not be bullied. Federal law enforcement is now alerted."

"Doxxing" refers to searching for a person's personal information with malicious intent and "swatting" to the act of deceiving an emergency service into sending a police or emergency service response team to another person's address.

Read more: https://www.newsweek.com/allan-lichtman-death-threats-election-latest-1983401






Allan Lichtman
@AllanLichtman
·
Follow
We've faced death threats, doxxing, swatting and intimidation at our doorstep. We will not be bullied. Federal law enforcement is now alerted.
6:32 PM · Nov 9, 2024
35 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
Allan Lichtman Says He Received Death Threats (Original Post) BumRushDaShow Nov 10 OP
Of course he has. All critics must be silenced with threats of death. Irish_Dem Nov 10 #1
Maybe he was correct this time. Doodley Nov 10 #2
Maybe he was correct yet again Farmer-Rick Nov 10 #20
"We" give in too easy. slightlv Nov 10 #31
I think in a normal election with no foreign influence & disinfo onetexan Nov 10 #27
Tell me again how we should blame only ourselves (Dems) and join hands to sing Kumbaya with these MAGATs? hlthe2b Nov 10 #3
The only "cure" is that a lot of these idiots are going to off themselves by listening to RFK Jr... Initech Nov 10 #24
He Needs To Retire SoCalDavidS Nov 10 #4
I never put much value into his predictions. LisaL Nov 10 #9
Agreed. orange jar Nov 10 #18
I think like the rest of us he clearly didn't want Trump to win. LisaL Nov 10 #19
Saw a vid on DU yesterday where he talks about the tremendous volume of misinformation put out by Musk's platform JudyM Nov 10 #14
Huh, I agree with him Farmer-Rick Nov 10 #21
I wonder about the possibility of something more sinister from parties within the US. JudyM Nov 10 #33
Badge of honor. paleotn Nov 10 #5
Ruger .380 LCP Glock 19 & Mossberg Maverick 88 EarthFirst Nov 10 #8
That we most certainly are. paleotn Nov 10 #17
Prof. Lichtman is one of the reasons... -misanthroptimist Nov 10 #6
I have to wonder Ruby the Liberal Nov 10 #7
I believe so and I think it was intentional. Trump continued to act like a nut job his okaawhatever Nov 10 #11
That is a great point Ruby the Liberal Nov 11 #34
Come on! He's really crazy and has no impulse control. His conspiracies are out in the open. Beakybird Nov 10 #15
Maybe they did vote Farmer-Rick Nov 10 #22
Yeah, I'm keeping an open mind on that Ruby the Liberal Nov 11 #35
I still believe that Professor Lichtman had a good model Vogon_Glory Nov 10 #10
About his model jayschool2013 Nov 10 #12
"Could it simply be that any rational model that tries to predict outcomes based on reality is now forever flawed" BumRushDaShow Nov 10 #16
That's exactly what they've been doing for the last 9 or 10 years FakeNoose Nov 10 #26
That's what I think. yardwork Nov 10 #30
he acknowledged the keys did not work this time cause they are contingent upon majority of voters being generallrational AlexSFCA Nov 10 #13
WTF is wrong with people? nycbos Nov 10 #23
No doubt they have. TY BRDS Cha Nov 10 #25
Hey, Allan! PJMcK Nov 10 #28
Only the dumbest people bought his bullshit SunImp Nov 10 #29
Add NOT-A-WOMAN to your keys...? TrunKated Nov 10 #32

Irish_Dem

(58,324 posts)
1. Of course he has. All critics must be silenced with threats of death.
Sun Nov 10, 2024, 10:49 AM
Nov 10

The First Amendment is null and void for those who criticize our fascist leaders.

Farmer-Rick

(11,460 posts)
20. Maybe he was correct yet again
Sun Nov 10, 2024, 02:00 PM
Nov 10

But a Russian KGB agent was allowed unrestricted access to manipulate our social media and give money to campaigns......and maybe play around with a few vote counting systems.

To bad she conceded. She's lost all standing in the courts by doing that. This is what Gore did when his election was stolen too.

A perfect storm of corporate media (read monopolies), a nation with hollowed out manufacturing where the most common jobs are sales clerks and waiters, forgien election interference and an oligarchy looking for their puppet king.

This is the down side of capitalism that folks don't talk about. How even our government and democratic processes are bought up by the filthy-rich. Money and wealth is the real power in the US. And they won.

slightlv

(4,381 posts)
31. "We" give in too easy.
Sun Nov 10, 2024, 07:23 PM
Nov 10

It's a major issue with the better party who follows rules and regulations; that preaches for tolerance and understanding. We give, but not in the way of Tai Chi. We don't follow up with anything except depression and excuses.

I, frankly, believe that Lichtman was correct. No one will ever be able to tell me this wasn't stolen and the "steal" was in plain sight for probably the entire year, if not earlier. They found a way to cheat that wasn't visible so much to us, and kept us distracted with red herrings like voter purge and suppression (which still helped them).

But, what the f*ck? If the democrats WITH power are willing to roll over, what are we, the ones WITHOUT power suppose to do? Oh! I know, we'll GOTV again next time! /snark

onetexan

(13,900 posts)
27. I think in a normal election with no foreign influence & disinfo
Sun Nov 10, 2024, 03:10 PM
Nov 10

I believe the good Prof Lichtman is correct. I think the model, though, does not take into account the chicanery, which the prof would not have any real emperical data to take into consideration.

hlthe2b

(106,478 posts)
3. Tell me again how we should blame only ourselves (Dems) and join hands to sing Kumbaya with these MAGATs?
Sun Nov 10, 2024, 10:56 AM
Nov 10

The best I can do is consider them "VERY ILL" (mentally) and hope that a cure might be soon to come. A bit (as I wrote on another thread) like the zombies of "The Walking Dead" somehow receiving a cure for the virus that has caused their unexpected and abrupt turn. Looking at MAGA like "brain-turned" helpless ill people somehow makes it easier to deal with these people I otherwise so want to hate.

Initech

(102,106 posts)
24. The only "cure" is that a lot of these idiots are going to off themselves by listening to RFK Jr...
Sun Nov 10, 2024, 02:32 PM
Nov 10

And his conspiracy theory quackery, just like they did during COVID when they refused to wear masks, drank bleach, took horse diarrhea medicine, and listened to complete fucking deranged idiots like Sherri Tenpenny and Stella Immanuel who said that COVID came from lizard people. Drinking raw milk and consuming the other unproven bullshit "cures" that he recommends is going to get a lot of people killed. And at this point, a lot of them are really beyond hope.

orange jar

(878 posts)
18. Agreed.
Sun Nov 10, 2024, 12:40 PM
Nov 10

I remember when he warned against calls for Biden to drop out because he thought we'd lose, then immediately after Harris became his replacement he transferred all the keys from Biden to her, stating that her being VP granted her the same keys that Biden had.

So, which is it? A colossal mistake for Biden to drop out, or no big deal because Harris would get the same keys and "advantage"? He had been very wishy-washy since the aftermath of the debate.

LisaL

(46,649 posts)
19. I think like the rest of us he clearly didn't want Trump to win.
Sun Nov 10, 2024, 12:44 PM
Nov 10

That's not exactly an objective stand.

JudyM

(29,526 posts)
14. Saw a vid on DU yesterday where he talks about the tremendous volume of misinformation put out by Musk's platform
Sun Nov 10, 2024, 12:20 PM
Nov 10

and other sources as twisting things up because the actual facts weren’t known by such a large proportion of voters, and that that isn’t accounted for in his model.

He also implied that he suspects malfeasance was involved. Though he declined to outright assert there was a conspiracy.

Farmer-Rick

(11,460 posts)
21. Huh, I agree with him
Sun Nov 10, 2024, 02:08 PM
Nov 10

An expert and practiced Russian KGB agent was allowed unrestricted access to a lot of our most frequently used social media. Foreign money was allowed to buy up influence both in the media and in our politics. And corporate media monopolized our most common news sources. A political party straight up owns a huge media conglomerate.

Did Putin really need to rig the vote counts for pedo Trump? No, but he probably did.

paleotn

(19,298 posts)
5. Badge of honor.
Sun Nov 10, 2024, 11:06 AM
Nov 10

My advice, buy a Glock or similar and learn how to use it. I've been around firearms all my life but never even considered a handgun until 2017. Wife has one too. Favorable situation for us since we have no kids at home. And I do understand that the chances of political violence touching us is very, very small. Particularly up here. But I figure it's like airline safety. The chances of a mishap are very small but catastrophic if it does occur. I'd rather be prepared and never have to use it than need it and not have it. Personal opinion. Your mileage may vary.

EarthFirst

(3,166 posts)
8. Ruger .380 LCP Glock 19 & Mossberg Maverick 88
Sun Nov 10, 2024, 11:22 AM
Nov 10

All affordable; well served firearms for most home defense situations…

Democrats do own and are well trained in use and responsible firearms ownership.

FAFO

paleotn

(19,298 posts)
17. That we most certainly are.
Sun Nov 10, 2024, 12:36 PM
Nov 10

Once again dispelling the firearm scared, latte sipping, Volvo diving myth. As though Tim Walz hadn't dispelled that myth already. I'd compare my cultural bonafides against any and all trump voters and the majority of them would be found lacking.

-misanthroptimist

(1,196 posts)
6. Prof. Lichtman is one of the reasons...
Sun Nov 10, 2024, 11:08 AM
Nov 10

...that I don't feel so bad about missing more states in this election than in the previous four combined. I have a different method than the Professor, so when we came to the same conclusion that only reinforced my confidence. Two different methods arriving at the same conclusions is usually a solid way of predicting an event.

Not this time. Other factors were at play that neither he nor I accounted for -perhaps couldn't account for.

For the record, I haven't been threatened or harassed. I guess irrelevance is useful sometimes.

Ruby the Liberal

(26,318 posts)
7. I have to wonder
Sun Nov 10, 2024, 11:16 AM
Nov 10

if Dem votes were so low because people saw these predictions, the GOP crossovers and the Obama-level rally sizes and figured it was a done deal so didn't bother.

okaawhatever

(9,541 posts)
11. I believe so and I think it was intentional. Trump continued to act like a nut job his
Sun Nov 10, 2024, 11:32 AM
Nov 10

last couple of rallies. I think it was intentional. Convince Dems we had it in the bag.

Ruby the Liberal

(26,318 posts)
34. That is a great point
Mon Nov 11, 2024, 01:49 PM
Nov 11

Setting expectations from the other direction.

Quite a gamble, unless your get-out-of-jail free card wasn't guaranteed.

Interesting perspective - thank you

Farmer-Rick

(11,460 posts)
22. Maybe they did vote
Sun Nov 10, 2024, 02:18 PM
Nov 10

And just weren't counted.

We had an expert KGB agent freewheeling in our elections. Come on folks do you really think the only thing he wasn't going to touch was our vote counting systems?

Didn't Russia make some serious inroads to hacking a lot of our infrastructure systems?

Too bad she conceded. There might be a lot of evidence still out there. Right now, they're not rushing to hide it because they think they won.

Vogon_Glory

(9,583 posts)
10. I still believe that Professor Lichtman had a good model
Sun Nov 10, 2024, 11:29 AM
Nov 10

It DID predict most of the outcomes for Presidential races for decades.

His model was not infallible and needs revision, but as with any model involving human beings, they are not perfect.

I admit I’m curious to see how Presidential Vance would do in the 2028 election, assuming that we still have free or semi-free elections then. I suspect that Vance would find himself as an American equivalent of Venezuela’s strongman Nicolas Maduro following Hugo Chavez, with all the problem chickens coming home to roost.

jayschool2013

(2,471 posts)
12. About his model
Sun Nov 10, 2024, 11:57 AM
Nov 10

I see in the OP some key factors noted, including the economy and foreign policy — which seem to assume that the populace in general understands the basic facts surrounding those factors.

Could it simply be that any rational model that tries to predict outcomes based on reality is now forever flawed in our post-truth world?

Thanks.

BumRushDaShow

(142,976 posts)
16. "Could it simply be that any rational model that tries to predict outcomes based on reality is now forever flawed"
Sun Nov 10, 2024, 12:34 PM
Nov 10

Yes because "misinformation" and "disinformation" that is pounded out daily, not just on social media, but in the M$M, "works".

They were able to manufacture an unreality that people who are not hardcore news and political junkies, accepted.

When the GOP would spew "The economy is failing!!11!11!!" and then the media will immediately have a headline that says -

"The GOP says 'The economy is failing!!11!11!!'. Is it? It's complicated."


they have now validated the lie before they go about attempting to maybe fact-check the lie. And when you have people who either don't have time to read the article nor have the educational background or life experience to even understand all the technicalities in it, then they just go by the headline, and accept the framing.

FakeNoose

(35,813 posts)
26. That's exactly what they've been doing for the last 9 or 10 years
Sun Nov 10, 2024, 02:52 PM
Nov 10

That's how they've enabled Chump, and I've always known that Chump isn't smart enough to do this on his own.

yardwork

(64,469 posts)
30. That's what I think.
Sun Nov 10, 2024, 05:11 PM
Nov 10

I looked at Lichtman's 13 keys and worried that Harris actually might not have the needed keys, because so many Americans believe that the economy was terrible, that immigration is a crisis, etc. if you look at it in MAGA speak. His model predicted Trump would win.

Still, I felt sure Harris would win. I'm no good at predicting. Americans often surprise me in their idiocy.

AlexSFCA

(6,270 posts)
13. he acknowledged the keys did not work this time cause they are contingent upon majority of voters being generallrational
Sun Nov 10, 2024, 12:12 PM
Nov 10

the fractures media ecosystem created different realities which altered voters perception of economy regardless if facts. I don’t know if the keys can be adjusted for that considering that disinformation is about to get exponentially worse. He should retire, IMO. It was a colossal failure including popular vote for which the keys were always 100% accurate.

Latest Discussions»Latest Breaking News»Allan Lichtman Says He Re...