Consumer Confidence Hits 2-Year High As Recession Fears Fade: Stock Market Optimism Soars To Record High

[mahatmakanejeeves]

Source: Yahoo! Finance

Benzinga
Consumer Confidence Hits 2-Year High As Recession Fears Fade: Stock Market Optimism Soars To Record High

Piero Cingari
Tue, November 26, 2024 at 11:11 AM EST * 4 min read

American consumers are feeling better about the economy than they have in years, as the latest data Tuesday from The Conference Board shows. ... The Consumer Confidence Index rose from 111.3 in October to 111.7 in November, reaching its highest level in nearly two years, aided by an improving labor market and easing concerns about a potential recession. ... "The proportion of consumers anticipating a recession over the next 12 months fell further in November and was the lowest since we first asked the question in July 2022," said Dana M. Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board.

Labor Market Drives Optimism

The surge in consumer confidence was fueled by the Present Situation Index, which reflects business and labor market conditions. ... That metric jumped 4.8 points to 140.9, signaling widespread belief in the strength of the job market. Notably, 33.4% of respondents said jobs were "plentiful," while only 15.2% said jobs were "hard to get." Both figures improved compared to October. ... Consumers are also optimistic about the future availability of jobs. In November, 21.7% expected more jobs to be available in six months, up sharply from 18.4% in October. It's the most upbeat reading on job prospects in nearly three years. ... "November's increase was mainly driven by more positive consumer assessments of the present situation, particularly regarding the labor market," Peterson said.

Confidence surged among younger Americans in November, with consumers under 35 driving much of the increase. Sentiment among those aged 35-54 dipped slightly after strong gains in October. ... Among income groups, households earning over $100,000 and those under $35,000 saw the most optimism, while the wealthiest consumers -- earning above $125,000 -- reported flat or slightly declining confidence.

Recession Risk At Record Lows

One of the most striking developments in the report is the collapse in recession fears. Recession expectations for the next 12 months have reached their lowest level since mid-2022, The Conference Board said. ... With the Expectations Index rising slightly to 92.3, well above the critical threshold of 80 that often signals economic downturn, consumers are showing little concern about a looming slowdown. ... "Consumers' optimism for their finances over the next six months reached a new high, even as their assessments of their family's current financial situation fell slightly," Peterson said.

{snip}

Read more: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/consumer-confidence-hits-2-high-161128716.html

[Historic NY]

1. Because why the cult leader isn't even sworn in.

Rosy headlines wait until next yr

[relayerbob]

2. Give it until February

[2naSalit]

19. After the holiday...

spending sprees, yeah, that's when reality will be kicking in.

[BumRushDaShow]

3. After 3 years of "a recession is coming... a recession is coming"

[Redleg]

11. Exactly

What should be celebrated is that the U.S. has a strong economy relative to the rest of the world. Yes, inflation was a problem but it is near to normal this past year. We have low unemployment and decent GDP growth. Pretty darn good overall, especially given the gloomy outlook many pundits had.

[Lovie777]

4. What a joke....

People I know will be cautious spenders because they know next year will suck.

[ck4829]

7. Indeed

[ck4829]

5. Dow soars on hope of quick war - 2003 (A war that lasted 8 years)

The 270-point gain is fueled by prospects that a rapid U.S. victory could stabilize the economy. NEW YORK — Wall Street shot higher yesterday, scoring its best day in five months on hopes that a U.S. war with Iraq would be short and successful. The Dow Jones industrials soared nearly 270 points while the Nasdaq composite index gained more than 60.

The Standard Poor's 500 index had its the second- best day of 2003. Still, the rally was also an expected rebound following weeks of selling.

Optimism about the outcome of a military conflict allowed investors to shrug off a discouraging retail sales report. Trading volume was the most robust it has been all year.

"There is the expectation that Iraq will be resolved soon and the price of oil will come down and the outlook for the economy will improve and stock prices will rise. A lot of active investors are positioning themselves for that outcome. This (rally) reflects optimism that Iraq will be put behind us," said Hugh Johnson, chief investment officer for First Albany Corp.

https://www.capecodtimes.com/story/business/2003/03/14/dow-soars-on-hope-quick/50965677007/

[blm]

6. Because GOP campaign ads lying about the economy ended Nov 6.

[k55f5r]

28. Of all the comments on this thread I believe

That your comment is the most succinct and truthful comment here.

[Biophilic]

8. Amazing that this kind of "news" shows up mere weeks after the election.

Do ya get the feeling that the news is a bit biased? Such good timing.

[mahatmakanejeeves]

9. At its regularly scheduled time? No, not at all. NT

[BumRushDaShow]

18. The last 3 when it went positive

AUG 2024
US Consumer Sentiment Increases for First Time in Five Months

SEP 2024
US Consumer Sentiment Rises as Inflation Expectations Retreat

OCT 2024
US Consumer Sentiment Rises to Six-Month High on Rate Relief

The threads sortof got a yawn from DU though...

[mahatmakanejeeves]

27. "The threads sortof got a yawn from DU though... "

Yeah. The release of the Consumer Confidence Index is sort of like reporting who won the "Miss Pocatello" Competition. There's not a lot of national interest in either one.

[JustAnotherGen]

10. I'm holding on tight

To my money for the next 4 years.

[Blackjackdavey]

12. Sadly, the article is probably accurate,

no bias needed. Households earning less than 100k definitely fold in a vast number of families who have probably little clue how things work, they're gullible, they're naive, they base their choices on, well, alternative information. Tariffs, ant-stuff, deportations and closed borders make them feel good.

Families earning more have more who know what's up, such as tariff related inflation, brain drain related workforce problems, fewer insured people and lower reimbursement rate anxiety, destruction and exploitation and theft of the commonwealth anxiety, etc. Not good times ahead and I'm genuinely puzzled why people are optimistic unless you're an oligarch. I suppose you could be some niche entrepreneur who thinks you're gonna hit it big now that all those pesky regulations are out of the way -- but unless you're planning to pay a cut up the chain, that ain't gonna happen, but I guess every Banana republic has a few winners.

[Macrophylla]

13. Everything is great

Untill it isn't.
It's good that consumer sentiment is up.
The pain from the fall isn't going to be pretty.
There are issues coming to a head.
Zero auto sales, layoffs already starting, the mother of all equity bubbles will not hold out forever and cyclical trends are hard to fight.

Give all blame to trump and Republicans the idiots will never understand the details anyway.

[ZonkerHarris]

14. check back in on this in 6 months

[ck4829]

15. Yep

[orwell]

16. A perfect example...

...of magical thinking.

Nothing has fundamentally changed from 1 month ago except the election.

Suddenly reports of consumer optimism (consumers were actually optimistic 1 month ago 111.3 vs. current 111.7).

What really changed...the spin.

Nothing is based on reality. It is all opinions, punditry, comms, spin doctoring, data massaging, and high level bullshit.

It is what Chomsky referred to as "Manufacturing Consent."

Once again 1984 and Brave New World were not novels, they were possible outcomes based on the predictability of human arrogance, greed, cruelty, and denial.

"What's past is prologue." - The Tempest

The inconvenient truth worth our global attention is the ongoing and accelerating Climate Collapse.

That, my friends, is at an all time high...

[Wiz Imp]

17. It won't last long

Once the impact of Trump's tariffs and other policies hit fully, a recession is all but guaranteed.

The reason the numbers are higher now has everything to do with the MAGA cult. The economy is already showing signs of getting worse just 3 weeks after the election. But the opinion of the economy by the MAGA cult skyrocketed the day after the election. That's right, in these idiots mind, the economy was immediately better just because Trump won even though absolutely nothing had changed

That is why I want to scream every time I hear people say, just because economic indicators were in fantastic shape, that didn't reflect voters actual situations. If voters felt things were worse, then it must be true. It was all bullshit. The vast majority of people in this country were far better off economically under Biden than under Trump. But you had the MAGA cult being told 24/7 for 4 years that things were worse. So reality be damned, they believed if their beloved cult leaders were telling them things were worse, they must be. It was brainwashing on steroids.

I actually have a little hope (not much, but a little), when things turn south quickly, and make no mistake they will, that reality will finally start to penetrate at least some members of the cult. Yeah, the leaders will try to blame democrats, but I don't think it will work when things start getting really bad as I expect they will.

[k55f5r]

29. I believe the second or third hurricane

To hit the East Coast with billions of dollars of damage, we'll probably have something to do with a change in America's thinking.

[IronLionZion]

20. It might happen quickly after the January inauguration

our economy will shift from "nobody wants to work anymore" to "they're stealing our jobs".

[Prairie Gates]

21. What a shock..here's my shocked face

[muriel_volestrangler]

22. When Republicans' estimation of their past 12 months changes overnight, no surprise their "confidence" does too

see https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=19753336 .

They tell themselves what they need to, for justifying voting for a racist, misogynist rapist and conman.

[sinkingfeeling]

23. Until January.

[nmmi]

24. From the source, and please look at their graphs for some perspective - its not the sky high soaring

marvel one might think from the breathless "up again", "highest in 2 years" etc. story line,

https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence/press/CCI-Nov-2024

Well, here's the main graph:



That's what all the excitement is all about?

[bluescribbler]

25. Too fucking late.

The election is over. The good guys lost.

[Turbineguy]

26. "What we need is some bullshit, make-them-feel-good poll"

Yeah, that's it!

[Aussie105]

30. Consumer optimism . . . such an emotional index.

One that means little and will dissolve when reality hits.

How are you going to feel when your gardener doesn't show up for his usual job, your housemaid/nanny doesn't either and kitchen hand/cooks in your local favourite restaurant can't report for work because they are on a bus to nowhere in particular (detention camp)?

How are you going to feel when groceries skyrocket in price because Mexico 'pays' tariffs passed onto you, or become unavailable, ditto for Chinese made whitegoods and electronics?
And gas prices go up?
Your student loan repayments come back at you?

Consumer optimism . . . an emotional and ephemeral thing.

The optimism, as stated above, probably stems from the propaganda MSM machine now being quiet, it has done its job of making you afraid of the D presidency.