Fed's preferred inflation gauge rises to 2.3% annually, meeting expectations

[BumRushDaShow]

Last edited Wed Nov 27, 2024, 10:53 AM - Edit history (1)

Source: CNBC

Published Wed, Nov 27 2024 10:08 AM EST Updated 23 Min Ago


Inflation edged higher in October as the Federal Reserve is looking for clues on how much it should lower interest rates, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday.

The personal consumption expenditures price index, a broad measure that the Fed prefers as its inflation gauge, increased 0.2% on the month and showed a 12-month inflation rate of 2.3%. Both were in line with the Dow Jones consensus forecast, though the annual rate was higher than the 2.1% level in September.

Excluding food and energy, core inflation showed even stronger readings, with the increase at 0.3% on a monthly basis and an annual reading of 2.8%. Both also met expectations. The annual rate was 0.1 percentage point above the prior month. Services prices generated most of the inflation for the month, rising 0.4% while goods fell 0.1%. Food prices were little changed while energy was off 0.1%.

Fed policymakers target inflation at a 2% annual rate; PCE inflation has been above that level since March 2021 and peaked around 7.2% in June 2022, prompting the Fed to go an on aggressive rate-hiking campaign.

Read more: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/27/pce-inflation-october-2024.html

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Article updated.

Original article -

Published Wed, Nov 27 2024 10:08 AM EST Updated 3 Min Ago


Inflation edged higher in October as the Federal Reserve is looking for clues on how much it should lower interest rates, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday.

The personal consumption expenditures price index, a broad measure that the Fed prefers as its inflation gauge, increased 0.2% on the month and showed a 12-month inflation rate of 2.3%. Both were in line with the Dow Jones consensus forecast, though the annual rate was higher than the 2.1% level in September.

Excluding food and energy, core inflation showed even stronger readings, with the increase at 0.3% on a monthly basis and an annual reading of 2.8%. Both also met expectations. The annual rate was 0.1 percentage point above the prior month.

Services prices generated most of the inflation for the month, rising 0.4% while goods fell 0.1%. Food prices were little changed while energy was off 0.1%.


This is breaking news. Please check back for updates.

[nmmi]

1. From the source. And last 5 months (June thru Oct) of PCE inflation measures

Last edited Thu Nov 28, 2024, 12:54 PM - Edit history (2)

BEA.GOV: https://www.bea.gov/news/2024/personal-income-and-outlays-october-2024

PCE inflation measures, Last 5 months, percent increases:

Jun, Jul, Aug, Sep, Oct
0.1, 0.2, 0.1, 0.2, 0.2 PCE, month over month,
1.5, 1.1, 1.6, 1.8, 2.2 PCE, rolling 3 month averages, annualized
2.4, 2.5, 2.3, 2.1, 2.3 PCE, year-over-year

Jun, Jul, Aug, Sep, Oct
0.2, 0.2, 0.2, 0.3, 0.3 Core PCE, month over month
2.3, 1.9, 2.2. 2.4, 2.8 Core PCE, rolling 3 month averages, annualized
2.6, 2.7, 2.7, 2.7, 2.8 Core PCE, year-over-year

Keeping in mind that the Fed focuses on the Core measure for projecting FUTURE inflation, because energy prices are so volatile bouncing up and down and repeat, (and to a lesser extent, food prices too). The PCE (aka all items) includes energy and food, the Core PCE excludes them.

It's the CORE PCE, not the PCE, that is the Fed's preferred inflation measure. They won't be happy with this report. Before today, they've been mumbling about "sticky" inflation, and this furthers that narrative.

Next release: December 20, 2024 (notice, not real near month end like it usually is)

Edited to add the rolling 3 month averages
Edit The Core year-over-year, now at 2.8%, is the highest its been since April. Another stat supporting the "sticky" inflation narrative.

[nmmi]

2. Holy BeJezus, look at these income numbers

Same report; https://www.bea.gov/news/2024/personal-income-and-outlays-october-2024

Personal income increased $147.4 billion (0.6 percent at a monthly rate) in October, according to estimates released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (tables 2 and 3).

Disposable personal income (DPI), personal income less personal current taxes, increased $144.1 billion (0.7 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $72.3 billion (0.4 percent).

. . . Real DPI increased 0.4 percent and real PCE increased 0.1 percent;

Spacing and emphasis added. "Real" means inflation-adjusted.

[Blue_Tires]

3. All that work Biden did to fix the economy...

Only for the angry orange idiot and his apartheid errand boy to destroy it again, further enriching themselves in the process...

I don't understand people or this country anymore 😔