College enrollment is falling at a 'concerning' rate, new data reveals
Source: The Guardian
Sun 8 Dec 2024 07.00 EST
College enrollment is dropping at a “concerning” rate, according to new data. Data from the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center shows enrollment of 18-year-old freshmen has dropped by 5% this fall semester. The data reflects enrollments reported for 1.4 million 18-year-old freshmen as of 31 October 2024.
The decline is most significant at both public and private, non-profit four-year colleges, which have seen a more than 6% decline in enrollment. For 46 states, Inside Higher Ed noted, the average drop was almost 7%. At prestigious universities with lower acceptance rates, the largest drops in enrollment were among freshmen of color. Black freshmen, for example, enrolled 16.9% less at highly selective public and private, non-profit four-year schools.
The primary reason for the drop, experts say, is more complicated. Julie J Park, an education professor at the University of Maryland, cited “a national conversation that’s been going on for a while” about a “potential ‘enrollment cliff’”.
The enrollment cliff concept came about within higher education after years of declining birth rates in the US, triggered by the Great Recession. Earlier this year, the CDC released data indicating that the US had hit a historic low in its annual number of births – declining 2% from 2022 to 2023 and then 3% in 2023. “Since the most recent high in 2007, the number of births has declined 17%, and the general fertility rate has declined 21%,” the August 2024 data shows.
Read more: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/dec/08/college-enrollment-declining
Link to National Student Clearinghouse Research Center REPORT - Fall 2024 SI Special Analysis Dashboard
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Wicked Blue
(6,776 posts)by making unbelievably expensive.
When I started college in the fall of 1969, tuition was $200 a semester plus a $65 student fee.
Evolve Dammit
(19,056 posts)Wicked Blue
(6,776 posts)Evolve Dammit
(19,056 posts)
ShazzieB
(18,925 posts)It figures that he was the one who did that. It just frigging figures!
kelly1mm
(5,413 posts)protest when in fall 1993 tuition started to be charged at the rate of $4 per unit, cap of $40 per semester. Transferred to Cal State Hayward and tuition there was capped at $500 per semester. GI bill paid $450 a month. Entire undergrad tuition was $3320 (six year plan as I was still in the reserves and working full time) Good times .....
Evolve Dammit
(19,056 posts)
SunSeeker
(54,061 posts)Then there's books, housing, food, etc., making going to a UC school cost around $40-50k/year. But I was still relieved when my kid got admitted to a UC, because private colleges want $50-75k/year just for tuition.
Evolve Dammit
(19,056 posts)
patphil
(7,111 posts)I had a state regents scholarship for the $200. a semester cost of full time enrollment. I then transferred to the State University of NY at Albany, and graduated in January of 1960. Throughout that whole period my scholarship paid my tuition.
I was only responsible for fees, books, and room and board.
I left college with about $800. in debt; very little indeed.
My 50 year old daughter is still paying off her college debts.
It's the interest that kills these kids.
I tell kids not to go to college unless you have a clear path to a job that will allow you to pay off the cost of college. Also, I recommend going to state schools instead of private colleges. It's a lot cheaper, and a school's name is only important for your first job. After that, it's performance in the workforce that will get you better jobs.
Renew Deal
(83,064 posts)rainin
(3,194 posts)university.
róisín_dubh
(11,924 posts)Let's see. First, federal and state tax money to state colleges/unis declined dramatically. So tuition had to go up.
Then, Americans decided everything had to be a goddammed business and quantified, so learning for the sake of being a better informed citizen went out the window, in favour of how much money will my little angel Johnny or Sally make. Then that means Johnny and Sally become customers, not students, and when Johnny and Sally want the most state of the art living facilities and amenities on campuses, the CEOS (er, presidents) of universities entered into wildly ridiculous deals with towns and cities to build these stupidly expensive facilities.
Then the adjunctification of the university system occurred where universities decided, damn, all the money on buildings is crippling us, so no more hiring faculty to long term contracts, instead let's create a perpetual underclass of poorly paid academics who have to cobble together 6-7 gigs just to not starve or live in their cars and while your kid's tuition is going up and up and up, fewer and fewer professors are actually on permanent contracts. Then, universities decide to just focus on training in fields that "make money".
The education system in the US is in shambles at every level. I left a research-intensive university in 2022, of my own accord, because no senior faculty could get internal funding for research (and external funding in my field is almost non-existent). They wanted to raise my teaching to an unsustainable level and cut my research and I noped the hell out of there and moved abroad. A year later 170+ of my colleagues, most on permanent contracts (aka with tenure) were fired because the budget had been so mismanaged the university was something like $75 million in debt.
ETA: Sorry this wasn't really directed only at you
SomewhereInTheMiddle
(407 posts)My school when from one of the few with a surplus to significantly in debt. Then the layoffs started.
Now I am working at an American university in Rwanda, trying to keep a weather eye on how the new politics will further gut higher ed.
SWBTATTReg
(24,332 posts)the new hires we needed (my teaching field was IT, all stripes/all fields). So, we ended up re-training a lot of these new kids we hired off the streets. This is the ol' schools can't keep up w/ what business demanded from grads graduating from College. Kind of makes sense as IT business models, IT languages, coding, etc. were evolving literally day to day.
The ones we hired and then had them come through my classes had to go through an 18 week, 40 hr. a week course. Pretty extensive but we literally taught them everything from the ground up.
raccoon
(31,514 posts)I used to work at a community college and sometimes at meetings we'd see pie charts showing how much the feds and the state used to give the college and how much they were giving at the then present time.
I know there are other factors as well.
Iris
(16,142 posts)You could go to school or $1200 (just tuition) 30 years ago at my local community college. It is now $3,300. The difference in price represents cuts in state funding to colleges over the decade, particularly the last 15 years. Now students pay more of the actual cost of tuition than the state - totally flipped from when we were in college.
IronLionZion
(47,117 posts)plenty of college grads can't find jobs in their field and were stuck with tons of student debt. Some may decide it's not worth it.
Shermann
(8,722 posts)That may technically be true, but the pitfall there is opportunity cost. You might pay $50,000 per year to go to a private university, for a grand total of $200,000. A back-of-the-envelope calculation says that if you invest that money instead and earn 7%, you will reach $1,000,000 in only 25 years (much shorter than a typical career). Now there's more to higher education than just the rate of return, but one should only go into debt like this with their eyes wide open.
Fiendish Thingy
(18,801 posts)Your example only makes sense if the $200k is invested, all at once, at the time the individual would have started attending university.
Otherwise, the $200k in debt would be accumulated over a four year period, and paid off over 10-20 years, while earning higher wages than the 18 year old who hypothetically invested the money and didn’t touch it for 25 years.
Shermann
(8,722 posts)In reality, the $200K doesn't include interest on student loans. So that just digs the hole even deeper. Whether the loan takes 10 or 20 years to pay off only affects the amount of interest paid, the $200k is forfeit. Spreading the $200K spend over four years doesn't change the outcome. What I'm doing is calculating the opportunity cost and am not the first to do so.
In addition, the college student's entry into the job market is delayed by four years which is another disadvantage. This critical view on the subject is sound.
Fiendish Thingy
(18,801 posts)If the youth skipped college and went straight to the unskilled labour market, their wages would be lower, both at the moment and for their lifetime.
You can’t calculate nor compare lost opportunity cost when the opportunity (to invest $200k at age 18 and hold those investments for 25 years) wasn’t an option to begin with, because the 18 year old didn’t have $200k to invest.
Calculating and comparing lost opportunity cost is useful when someone has $200k in hand to invest and the question is “should I invest the money or use it as a down payment for real estate?”
That’s apples to apples.
exboyfil
(18,035 posts)Drivers, linemen, plumbers, electricians, CNC operators, etc. Most of these individuals are in better shape than many of the degrees earned. For example unless you already have business connections, I would recommend the above starting out instead of getting a general business degree.
Fiendish Thingy
(18,801 posts)The topic was the return on investment for college vs. entering the unskilled workforce right out of high school.
Shermann
(8,722 posts)That said, I believe this comparison has merit. The point here isn't that an 18-year-old should buy the S&P index fund instead of going to college. This is a challenge to the claim we've all heard about degrees being worth a million bucks, that's it. Take from it what you will, and caveat emptor.
JT45242
(2,993 posts)We don't teach it enough but it works.
Student loan debt is an investment in yourself. You can make a good or poor investment choice.
the rule is the MAXIMUM SAFE DEBT equals two time the MEDIAN STARTING SALARY for YOUR MAJOR at YOUR COLLEGE , if it has over 80 percent or higher job placement within a year
Two examples. My son went to Rose Hulman Institute of Technology for chemical engineering. Median starting salary the year before he got there was about $72K. So, up to $144k is ok. He grado, got a job that paid $76k and had a $10k signing bonus from the company that he interned for. State of Indiana gives $7k to STEM majors from universities in Indiana if they work for at least 6 months in the state as a way to entice kids from out of state who go to IU, Purdue, Notre Dame,and RHIT to stay local and pay taxes. He has $120 k in student loans and is fine.
Sister in law went to a private school to be early childhood education in Kentucky. Starting salary for elementary education when she graduated was like $25k IF you could get a teaching job. She had close to $100k in student loans. That was bad debt. Especially, since she worked in a day care for 2 years at just above minimum wage because there was a glut of teachers for K-3. Add on the requirements to get a masters degree to renew your license beyond about 8 years in most states and that becomes unworkable. Luckily student loan forgiveness for teachers bailed her out.
I'm ignoring predatory for profit colleges because they are just a scam.
But bottom line is know what you can make. That determines how and where you can go to school (live at home, community college first, a school that is big on co-ops and working to reduce costs, etc).
There are too many people telling young people college is a waste of time and money. I hear it from youth that I work with all the time.
But maybe we shouldn't listen to philosophy or English majors who don't have teaching credentials and studied what was interesting instead of looking at investing in themselves.
I told every group of juniors or seniors if you want to major in art, philosophy, or some other pre unemployment major without a graduate degree you better minor in something that pays the bills. Our friend who did the flowers for our wedding had a degree in forestry and minored in accounting. She was an accountant to pay the bills and volunteered with park service education on the side. That's a plan.
Too many students aren't taught what us in the national curriculum and make poorly informed decisions.
MichMan
(13,553 posts)"There are too many people telling young people college is a waste of time and money. I hear it from youth that I work with all the time."
There are also too many people telling students to live their dreams and ignore the economics. Given the plethora of information available with a few keystrokes on available job prospects and typical salaries of every conceivable profession, there is really no excuse.
Fiendish Thingy
(18,801 posts)Although there are some unexpected jobs where English or philosophy majors get hired for their writing, logic and critical thinking skills.
Renew Deal
(83,064 posts)A million dollars over a 30 year career is $33,333/year. That's not life changing money
MichMan
(13,553 posts)Renew Deal
(83,064 posts)But what you have to do for that money isn’t always better. So let’s say you earn 72000 with a degree, but have $225K in loans and interest, that reduces your money by $7500/per year, and makes it harder to purchase a home. You’re not significantly better off in either case, and rhe debt creates a burden and stress.
MichMan
(13,553 posts)Owing about $60,000 in loans. Would that be worth it if you made an extra $35,000 every year?
You could literally pay off the loans in two years. Pretty much my career path except I took 10 years to pay off the loans.
(dollar amounts adjusted to reflect current costs at the college I attended)
MichMan
(13,553 posts)How many people do you think would accept that deal?
I say no one
JT45242
(2,993 posts)Life expectancy, divorce, suicide, infant mortality, likelihood of living in poverty when old, having health, dental and vision insurance...
Yes because in addition to the salary would be jobs with 401k, paid vacation, benefits, etc.
Plus things about the difference between minimum wage or near minimum wage jobs $15-20k and $50k a year is in term of food insecurity, fear of homelessness, etc.
Yavin4
(36,613 posts)The only way that we can maintain our work force and college enrollment is through...immigration.
thatdemguy
(535 posts)For their job field. Jobs are telling people going to school for most jobs its not needed as most things are learned on the job.
This is of course not for stem degrees, but even some of those like tech jobs you can just do shorter tech schools and get the cert needed. My wife is in software and about half of the programmers never went to college and they make the same money as those who did.
Orrex
(64,323 posts)Job had nothing to do with specialized knowledge or expertise. Also didn't matter what subject; just had to have a degree or else they wouldn't even glance at your resume.
Six months after I started, they changed their requirements, and they tasked me with training my replacement who had gotten her GED about three weeks prior.
Shermann
(8,722 posts)In my experience, most software engineers have 4-year degrees (a rough estimate would be 75%). However, their majors are all over the map. They had some programming in college but mostly taught themselves on the job. It's the idea of college being more of a filter than an actual training program.
Computer Programming jobs come in two flavors: code jockeys and code engineers.
Code jockeys are just people who put code together. They think in terms of the tool and not the process. These people often call themselves by their tool—"React programmer," "Java programmer," etc.
Code engineers understand the internals of their work, especially the math and engineering behind the coding. They focus on algorithm programming paradigms, while languages are just tools. These people will generally call themselves in terms of "Engineer."
And no, it does not mean that a Code jockey can't be a great asset or that an engineer is the best fit on the team; it does explain what type of person you need for a specific situation.
Yes, there are many colleges where the output is more code jockeys to code engineers, but for the most part, self-taught people very rarely ever develop an engineering background. And no, being from MIT, Stanford, or any other top-tier engineering university (ex, Cornell, Ga Tech, UT, Rice) does not make you an engineer. But it tells me you are more likely to have that background.
L-
Shermann
(8,722 posts)The reality is that great software engineers are largely self-taught, even the ones with 4-year computer science or engineering degrees. The real work of computers is learned sitting in front of a monitor innovating solutions to new problems yourself, not sitting in a class hearing about canned solutions to old, solved problems. All my friends who are great programmers and went to college were already programming before they enrolled and continued to teach themselves after graduating. I know many great programmers without 4-year degrees as well, they just aren't as rare or limited as you suggest.
Lithos
(26,466 posts)Self-taught developers often have huge knowledge gaps regardless of drive or interest. In my experience, many self-taught people are more aligned with specific tools/languages and lack much of the foundational knowledge that engineers have. This makes it very difficult for them to pivot technologies.
Does attending a four-year college grant this experience? No, of course not. Too many people get their CS degree without any passion for the work. However, given two equally passionate and engaged people, the one who attends college will likely be a far better engineer than the self-taught one.
So, yes, I know quite a few self-taught programmers. Many are good, but not too many are great. Those I would classify as great started coding early, but they also went to school for the CS degrees; many completed their Masters.
erronis
(17,176 posts)Held top-level clearances and presented to lots of brass and highly-degreed professionals.
For me at least it was luck and opportunity. I looked professional, could talk a good talk.
Once you get inside the bubble, no one looks at your college qualifications.
LittleGirl
(8,499 posts)In the article?
BumRushDaShow
(144,197 posts)of Community Colleges (2 year public institutions) and I expect there are some trade programs at those colleges. Apparently the drop was not at dramatic at those institutions.
LittleGirl
(8,499 posts)
OldBaldy1701E
(6,614 posts)jimfields33
(19,314 posts)I am not sure that was planned.
EastBayGuy
(123 posts)
Jacson6
(840 posts)I went to Jr. College to learn a trade 35 years ago and it costs me a few hundred dollars. A family member went to a four year college and it cost her $8000 to get a biology degree. That was affordable. Now we are being asked to pony up $15k+ per year at a 6% interest rate?
It needs to be reformed, so that our younger generation can get a degree or technical skill to join the work force.
IMHO.
Jim__
(14,502 posts)When I went to college, that is the way I saw it. Neither of my parents had a high school education, and they saw collge as job training - the more education you had the more money you could make. To a certain extent, it does work that way. But I've come to view college as much more important as personal development. There were certain things I was exposed to in college, e.g. art, literature, philosophy, that did not really affect my career, but did enrich my life. You can, of course, learn about these things outside of college, but college is a natural place for it. If AI and associated technologies give us more leisure, having interests outside of work may become more important in the near future, and so may a liberal arts education.
exboyfil
(18,035 posts)Most don't have the opportunity to smell the roses. For most middle class or lower, it better be vocational, and it better be done with considerable planning. My wife got a virtually useless degree. Not sure what she would have done if we hadn't married. My older daughter got an engineering degree, and my younger daughter got a nursing degree. My older daughter still pursues her photography and videography while my younger daughter continues her writing.
AI is just going to make the situation worse. We are just economic units in our country. Sorry to be cynical, but I was terminated from my job at 60. I was fortunate to get another job at 60% of my old salary, but I didn't have to get a sleeping room to pursue another job.
Karasu
(368 posts)And the incoming fascist administration will likely spell the end of it.
BonnieJW
(2,605 posts)community college for their first two years and then transferring to a state university for the last two
exboyfil
(18,035 posts)My girls did there first two years while in high school. One got her engineering degree in two years, and the other got her BS Nursing in four semesters after graduation including two summers (so graduated 15 months after high school).
JustABozoOnThisBus
(23,825 posts)It's the route I took, but the costs were negligible back then. Plus, there was the G.I. Bill, so it was basically free.
I seem to remember paying about 150 for a full-time quarter at the state univ.
Roughly 1968-1972 timeframe. The univ was well-subsidized by the state.
TBF
(34,748 posts)when I went to my state college 40 years ago it was $800/semester. I graduated with very little debt (under $5K and paid it off quickly). That was possible for kids from blue collar families.
Currently our youngest is looking and only the public universities are anywhere near affordable (and we are higher income than my own parents were).
There are many private colleges in this country, and they are charging as much as $65K per year for tuition (that's before room & board). Some prestigious out-of-state public colleges are at that level as well. When you add fees, room and board you're at around $90K a year. That is way out of reach for the middle and even upper middle class. Those are prices for multi-millionaires. So, most kids will be fighting it out to get into public schools, or full ride scholarships from private schools, etc.
exboyfil
(18,035 posts)Too difficult to get into. Still expensive but good payback with the right degree. Worried about my nephews in Pennsylvania. I joked with my SIL that they should do there final year in a Iowa high school.
TBF
(34,748 posts)they are particularly good for what he wants to study, and a backup to the colleges he applied to here in TX (they seem to only take so many from each high school, so he might get into those out-of-state schools more easily). We'll see how it shakes out. The one he applied to in Pennsylvania (and got into) is Temple but I don't know a lot about it. Just that it offered his field of study and has recruiters from companies he'd be interested in. We've done a ton of research. He does need a degree for the field (and licensing after that) so trying to be mindful of all the aspects.
As far as education in general I'd love to see free community colleges country-wide. Ideally we could educate so many young people who aren't interested in leaving their states and train them for whatever companies are in their area.
exboyfil
(18,035 posts)I did get my Mechanical Engineering degree at Purdue which is my only connection to Indiana.
Purdue is one he applied to - it's definitely on a lot of lists in Texas.
dobleremolque
(919 posts)(1) "Go into debt to get your degree(s)" , and
(2) "Business and industry will provide high-paying jobs for you to pay off the debt."
Business and industry have not upheld their end of the bargain.
Astute observation made by my wife several years ago, on her return from the grocery store: "Ya know, about 5 years ago all the grocery checkers had their degrees in psychology and now they seem to have switched to anthropology."
My wife, btw, is a former president of our state's vocational education association. And she has her bachelor and master degrees.
"The society that scorns excellence in plumbing because plumbing is a humble activity and tolerates shoddiness in philosophy because it is an exalted activity will have neither good plumbing nor good philosophy. Neither its pipes nor its theories will hold water." John Gardner, founder of Common Cause.
kimbutgar
(23,607 posts)I worked a part time job and was able to pay for my tuition and books. My parents only paid for my dormitory. In early 2000s I went back to school to get my teaching credential. It cost me $20,000 which I paid off in 5 years. I couldn’t get over how 1 textbook was $300! The most I paid in the 70’s for the semester was about $125 for 5 classes!
I was fortunate to get my BA before Reagan destroyed college education in California.
They really want to dumb down people and make them easier to control.
choie
(4,703 posts)A populace that is uneducated and ignorant.
Karasu
(368 posts)...and I really, really can't see our current for-profit education system surviving 4 years of fascists grinding it into dust as punishment for so-called "wokeness."
Elessar Zappa
(16,077 posts)It’s not some conspiracy. More people have degrees now than ever before.
Nigrum Cattus
(228 posts)Here is a link to the data - https://educationdata.org/average-time-to-repay-student-loans
10 years on average & much more for professional degrees. Medical school graduates
owe an average of $234,000. Also, A.I. could replace a certain profession before you
graduate with a degree that you can't use.
tenderfoot
(8,879 posts)
cOLleGe iSnT fOR eVErYoNE
BumRushDaShow
(144,197 posts)
tenderfoot
(8,879 posts)It's disturbing.
BumRushDaShow
(144,197 posts)That has been the biggie. "Business major". Forget anything STEM-related!
tenderfoot
(8,879 posts):the sound of knuckles scraping the pavement:
GoYouPackersGo
(149 posts)(1) Make college unaffordable
(2) People stop going to college
(3) Uneducated people are far more likely to vote Republican
(4) Win every election
reACTIONary
(6,157 posts)... This seems to be a decline in college enrollment due to a decline in the population of college age students. Has the percentage of collage age students enrolling declined, or are there just fewer college age students?
czarjak
(12,530 posts)They love the poorly educated for reasons.
hay rick
(8,316 posts)Higher education is one of the goods that has been priced out of reach for an ever greater share of the population.
Mike Nelson
(10,365 posts)... with mass deportation on the horizon, other people will need to mow lawns, pick grapes, and clean bathrooms.
Callie1979
(273 posts)And if you want more kids to go to college, revamp the entire system. 1/5th or more of college courses could be eliminated; which would drop costs. If you want tom be a lawyer, pass an aptitude test & go to law school. You simply dont need Science classes when you took them for 12 years prior to college. If you DONT pass the aptitude test, THEN you go to a yr or two of prep courses.
My daughter became a pharmacist. Took her EIGHT YEARS. She graduated top of class at every stage including high school. She said she could've easily done without TWO YEARS of undergrad courses. Many others have told me the same thing.
The costs of college has risen faster than the rise of healthcare.
BradBo
(668 posts)
harun
(11,359 posts)Been saying this for a while now. Costs egregiously growing out of step with incomes.
DFW
(56,896 posts)
LearnedHand
(4,221 posts)And it's wholly a rightwing framework to equate that value with earnings potential. There are dozens of reasons the value exceeds earnings potential. For example, it very likely broadens people's horizons by exposing them to things they wouldn't otherwise know about. It proves to future employers that you can set your mind to something and complete it. It eases the transition from high school to work by introducing a semi autonomy and giving young folks the opportunity to begin learning to take responsibility for their own success or failure (I.e., grades in this case). Finally, undergraduate school curricula in particular help overcome the fracturing of the world into topics that, in high school, seem to have zero relationship to one another. I could go on, but we need to avoid the MAGA framework (and sneering) about college education.
NOTE: I know college is not for everyone, and I wholeheartedly support a robust trade school option that is NOT in the hands of for-profit grifters.
EDIT: The costs are astronomically too high, and it's amplified a thousand times over by the predatory lenders.
pfitz59
(10,986 posts)Like many trade schools. What use is their degree without follow on employment?