US economic growth to slow in the next 30 years, fueled by debt and declining birth rates, CBO says
Source: AP
Updated 3:40 PM EDT, March 27, 2025
WASHINGTON (AP) — Weak population gains and increased government spending will result in slower overall economic growth over the next 30 years, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office said Thursday.
The CBO’s latest long-term budget and economic outlook report — for a timeframe that spans 2025 to 2055 — projects publicly held debt to reach 156% of gross domestic product, or GDP, in 2055. That’s down from the agency’s March 2024 long-term budget projection, which said publicly held debt would be equal to a record 166% of American economic activity by 2054. However, that’s not necessarily a positive.
The mix of slower population growth and unfettered spending will also result in weaker economic growth over the next three decades than what the CBO projected last year. Lower birthrates also mean that the United States is becoming more dependent on immigrants working to sustain growth. “Without immigration, the U.S. population would begin to shrink in 2033,” the CBO report states.
The report assumes that all the laws set to expire, including certain provisions of Trump’s 2017 tax cuts, will expire. But the White House and Republican lawmakers have said that the tax cuts will be renewed and potentially expanded, as well as suggesting reductions in government spending and an increase in revenues by taxing imports.
Read more: https://apnews.com/article/cbo-budget-trump-tax-cuts-2cd7d163780a2a32517ac99efa982ead
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