BTRTN: What Next? Should Joe Go?
Born To Run The Numbers analysis of the scenarios that may unfold in the aftermath of Joe Biden's disastrous debate performance:
http://www.borntorunthenumbersarchive.com/2024/07/btrtn-what-next-should-joe-go.html
Excerpts: "The 2024 presidential election to date has been characterized by its static nature. World and domestic events erupt with regularity... and yet, Donald Trump and Joe Biden have been locked in a very close election, for months on end, separated at most by mere percentage points. That might still be true after the epic meltdown of Joe Biden, the furious lying and dark-spiritedness of Donald Trump, and the illumination of their vast differences in worldview and policy at the June 27 CNN debate. We do not know as yet...
"What next? What everyone should be waiting for are the views (and verdict) of the most important segment of all: the voters. And that will come in the next week, both in public polls that we will all see, and in private polls that the Biden team almost certainly already had in place... If Biden has taken a substantial blow – say, a five-point or more drop in his approval rating, from the pre-debate level of roughly 40% to 35% or lower, and the gap with Trump widens to five points or more, our view is that Biden should step down. If the effect is more marginal, a point or two, he can continue his quest to write off the debate as a bad night, akin to those suffered by Reagan and Obama in their first reelection debates, and move on...
If Biden stepped down voluntarily, the presidential selection process might resemble political life in the decades and centuries before 1972. Many fear that unleashing such a process might lead to chaos, or unintended consequences. There are risks, to be sure. But there are significant upsides to this approach. The focus of the election would suddenly not be on Biden’s frailties and vexing, troubling issues (for him) such as Gaza and immigration, or Trump’s trials and dark madness, but instead on a fresh slate of candidates, who would generally be supportive, of course, of Democratic policies (and more articulate about them), but could also part with Biden on those troubling issues. The sheer excitement and novelty of this free-for-all, the breaking of a tired tradition, and the opportunity, finally, for choice, would surely ignite the Democrats..."
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