Is Nebraska in play? Unlikely candidate could upend GOP's Senate hopes

[LessAspin]

You would think not but I think we'll see a lot of surprises this year. Mostly that will fall in favor of the Democratic Party and Democracy..

Is Nebraska in play? How an unlikely candidate could upend GOP's Senate hopes
Story by Russell Payne • 18h • 4 min read

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Union steamfitter Dan Osborn is running against incumbent Republican Sen. Deb Fischer in Nebraska, one of the country's reddest states — and there are signs that the race could be much closer than expected. Osborn is an independent, not a Democrat, and insists he's not aligned with either major political party. But the narrow focus of his platform suggests a possible model for taking on Republicans in states where the Democratic brand is particularly weak.

The U.S. Senate race in the Cornhusker State suddenly registered on the national radar after a recent Split Ticket and Survey USA poll that found Osborn trailing Fischer by just one point, 39 to 38 percent.

Republicans have publicly dismissed the poll, and many political analysts have been skeptical — perhaps with reason — that an independent candidate could actually win in Nebraska, the Osborn campaign says internal polls have reported similar results.

The Survey USA poll also suggested that undecided voters, who accounted for about 20% of survey respondents, may be friendlier to Osborn than to Fischer. In the poll's crosstabs, 20% of those undecided voters supported President Biden in 2020, while only 10% supported former President Donald Trump.

Osborn also runs close to Fischer among the state's heavily conservative rural voters, trailing her by 40 to 36 percent with Democrat Preston Love far behind at 22 percent. Furthermore, 17% of 2020 Trump voters in Nebraska say they plan to support Osborn in this election, while just 7% of 2020 Biden voters plan to support Fischer.

When it comes to campaign funding, however, Osborn is in a more difficult spot. He has raised just $1.6 million this year and has only about $600,000 left in cash on hand. (As an independent, he's getting no support from a national party organization.) Fischer has raised more $6.2 million and has about $2.4 million left, according to the most recent Federal Elections Commission filings...

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/is-nebraska-in-play-how-an-unlikely-candidate-could-upend-gop-s-senate-hopes/ar-AA1qNzWt

[bucolic_frolic]

1. One stare from her could curdle milk.

[ColinC]

2. Unless some superpacs get involved it might be hard to see him overcoming the money disadvantage

[TheFarseer]

3. On the ground in Omaha

I’m not seeing many yard signs for either candidate but more Deb Fisher signs. Not too many ads either. Fishers’s strategy has mostly been to ignore him. His strategy has been to hold events all over the state. I have no idea what to expect on Election Day. I would not be surprised with a 60-40 Fisher win or a very tight race that requires counting into Thursday.