BTRTN 2024 Official Election Predictions: Presidency, Senate, House and Governors

[tgards79]

We at BTRTN have been at this for 16 years now, and, while we are not terribly well known, we hold our track record alongside our more famous colleagues. In fact, in 2022, we were “best in class” in the midterms. No one was as accurate as we were in predicting Senate and Governor outcomes (missing only two races out of 71; both “misses” were decided by less than a point and were the last two races called)...

...The real action is, of course, in the seven swing states. Those seven swing states (MI, PA and WI in the north, GA and NC in the south, and AZ and NV in the west) hold a total of 93 electoral votes. Among her 20 “solid” states (and two districts, one each in Maine and Nebraska), Harris can count on 226 electoral votes. Trump, for his part, in his 24 solid states and three districts (two in Nebraska and one in Maine), can count on 219. Each must get to 270 by securing the remainder from those 93 swing state votes.

The swing state polls are spectacularly close. The candidates are within two points of one another in each state, and most are closer than that. All are toss-ups, practically coin flips. To determine who might win requires an assessment of other factors, and most of them, by our assessment, favor Harris. There are two big ones that have led to our prediction...

https://borntorunthenumbers.com/2024/11/04/btrtn-2024-official-election-predictions-presidency-senate-house-and-governors/

[Gore1FL]

1. They are predicting Parson will win Against Quade in MO for governor.

Given that Parson isn't running, that'll be a steep climb.