How a Newsom Recall Could End the Democrats' U.S. Senate Majority

[TexasTowelie]

A version of this piece appears in the Los Angeles Times.

Shocked by recent polling that showed likely voters almost evenly split on the question of whether to recall Gov. Gavin Newsom, California Democrats are responding by pledging to walk more precincts and air more ads.

Let me gently suggest that those efforts, while necessary, fall well short of sufficient.

So long as the question before voters is solely that of Newsom’s tenure in office, Republicans will have a built-in advantage. Democrats and independents, from the evidence of the polls, are supportive of Newsom but hardly brimming with enthusiasm. Republicans, by contrast, are a Trumpified party stewing in and defined by a hatred of Democrats and progressives, for deeds both real and imagined. Republicans in California also know they cannot win statewide offices in regular elections. Since Arnold Schwarzenegger was re-elected governor in 2006 (after having first been elected in a recall), the Republicans have gone zero for 37 in such contests. Democrats outnumber Republicans in the state by a nearly two-to-one margin. It’s only in a low-turnout recall that Republicans stand a chance.

As Democrats are not, then, Republicans come to the recall, to cop a line from Yeats, “filled with passionate intensity.”

Against that intensity, how can Newsom prevail? Easy: Focus on what a Republican governor would likely do to the state if Newsom were recalled. On the retro policies such a governor would inflict on this decidedly non-retro state. And on who that governor might be.

Read more: https://prospect.org/politics/how-newsom-recall-could-end-democrats-senate-majority/
(American Prospect)

[Rollo]

1. I forgot about Feinstein's age...

Initially I sort of dismissed the effect a Newsom recall could have on the rest of the nation. However there have been some reports that Feinstein's age is starting to show in certain ways. We surely do not want a GOP governor appointing her successor should the worst happen.

So, as a California Democrat for the past 60 or so years, I'll do what I can to help Newsom stay in office. I think he's done a good job, and it seems obvious this recall is, as you say, more about Republicans trying to game the system (winning a low-turnout recall election and shift the US Senate) than his actual performance.

I've been seeing recent TV ads featuring Senator Elizabeth Warren urging Dems to vote against the recall. This is a good move, and I suspect more prominent Dems need to climb on board the anti-recall wagon. Even Biden making an appeal would be a good addition to the effort.

Any suggestions as to what an average California citizen can do to fight this latest cynical power grab from the Right?

[hlthe2b]

2. I've seen several CA DUers poo pooing the possibility Newsom would be recalled...

Which is sending me into a frenzy. I may not live in CA, but everything I am reading and hearing from actual CA DEM politicos tells me this is a RED HOT risk and that DEMS are being totally lackadaisical about the whole thing-- to the risk and detriment of us all.

All this Coloradoan can do is say: REMEMBER ARNOLD SCHWARZENEGGER. Recalls in CA are obviously not that difficult. PLEASE! PLEASE!

BTW, I'm sure local Democratic organizations (your county?) are in need of help with phone campaigns. Perhaps you could volunteer for that?

[Mr.Bill]

3. There were a lot more republicans percentage wise in California

when the last recall happened. Another thing that is different now is every single registered voter will have a ballot mailed to them. And still, by recall rules, every single polling place that was there when Newsom was elected must be there for the recall.

I agree about the Feinstein problem, and wish she would resign now, but I doubt she will. Other than that, A republican governor won't be able to do much damage with the Democrats holding a super majority in both houses of the legislature and every single statewide office being held by a Democrat.

I am optimistic about Newsom holding on but the Feinstein issue is a problem that could affect the entire nation, not just California.

[Journeyman]

4. The Party's had two decades to reform the recall process and they did nothing . . .

Frustrates the hell out of me. Stupidest thing the've not done in the past 20 years.

It's far too easy in this state to recall people for the silliest of reasons, and easier by far for every whack job in the state to declare for the office.

Should have rewritten the recall regs well before Schwarznegger slipped into office. No excuse whatsoever for not doing so in his aftermath.