Schiff, Garvey in 'statistical tie' for U.S. Senate seat, poll shows

[Auggie]

San Francisco Chronicle / March 2, 2024

Rep. Adam Schiff and former Los Angeles Dodger Steve Garvey are poised for a November face-off to represent California in the U.S. Senate, according to a new poll.

The poll shows about 27% of likely voters said they’d back Garvey, the race’s leading Republican, a “statistical tie” to Schiff’s 25%, according to the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies, which conducted the poll in late February.

Just 13% of likely voters supported Garvey in early January, IGS polling showed, while 21% backed Schiff, D-Burbank.

About 19% of likely voters said in late February that they’d cast their ballot for Rep. Katie Porter, D-Irvine, whose competitiveness in polls has slipped in recent months. Roughly the same percentage of voters backed her in January.

LINK (paywall): https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/senate-schiff-garvey-18700229.php

Highlights from the link:

• Registered Democrats outnumber registered Republicans 2 to 1 in California

• More than half of likely voters said they’d vote for Schiff or Porter instead of Garvey

---------------------------------

Unless something catastrophic happens, Schiff is going to be the next Senator to represent California. Unfortunately, we have another seven months of campaign ads to weather through.

[Lovie777]

1. I don't know........................

I have a feeling it going to be Schiff and Porter.

[JohnSJ]

4. Unlikely. Too many candidates in our idiotic jungle primary, which dilute

the votes for any one candidate.

Another stupid issue our state does is have a low threshold for a recall election. The same extremists are starting another recall attempt for Newsom, and because we have such a low threshold for signatures required to make the ballot, 11%, they will probably get it. Most states that allow recalls require 20-25%. We are such a large state, 11% is too low, and the legislature should have changed this after the last attempted recall. It costs the state millions, and there is nothing Newsom has done to merit a recall.

[ColinC]

9. Historically jungle primaries for US senate so far ended up D Vs D. If it happens D V R in the runoff

…it would be a first. And in part thanks to Schiffs campaign trying to promote the right wing extremist cause he knows he will be easier to beat than Porter.

Short frame of reference to draw from but a D Vs D prospect is not unlikely unless at least one of the Dems tries tirelessly to make it happen (as schiff appears to be doing)

[Retrograde]

13. Happened in 2022

Padilla, the Democrat who was appointed to fill Harris's seat, in the general election was running against a Republican whose name I forgot.

[JohnSJ]

2. It was an online poll, and when the general election occurs in

November, there will only be two candidates, highly likely Schiff and garvey, and if Porter supporters vote for Schiff in the general, garvey will be toast.

Our jungle primaries encourage too many candidates in a primary, which not only could make the primary ballot confusing, but take votes away from leading candidates.

As long as Democrats and progressives vote for the Democratic candidate in the general, this will remain a Democratic seat.

This is a perfect example of the press showing a headline to make things appear a horse race is occurring between a Republican and Democrat, when in reality the general election should provide an easy victory for the Democrat.

[quaint]

3. Early yet. If Porter or Lee drop out, the dynamic changes.

[JohnSJ]

5. They have to if they lose the primary for the general.

https://calmatters.org/politics/elections/2024/02/california-primary-election-voter-questions/

[quaint]

6. Two days left.

I was born here 74 years ago. I habe not missed an election since I came of age.
I do not need your schooling me.

[JohnSJ]

7. Yup. Most should have already voted. California makes it so easy to vote. They

send a ballot to all registered voters with a postage paid stamp, and immediately notify you when the ballot was received and counted.

[LenaBaby61]

14. "I have not missed an election since I came of age."

Same here. Voted for Jimmy Carter @18, and have never missed a vote since at any level of voting.

I remember when California and Orange County was RED

Now, the coast here out West is the bluest in history

[TwilightZone]

10. The primary is in two days.

There's no time to drop out and significantly influence the race. A lot of voters have already voted by mail or in early voting.

[quaint]

11. Gee, I never would have ever thought of that. Thanks for schooling me.

[TwilightZone]

12. Your objection is noted.

If you expected us to interpret your assertions as anything other than an unawareness of the process, I don't think that's realistic. You asserted that it's early and someone could still drop out and impact the race. Neither is true.

I understand that you take issue with that interpretation, and that's fine.

[quaint]

20. Today

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2024-03-05/2024-california-primary-election-not-voting-turnout

Of California’s roughly 22 million registered voters, only about 14% had returned their ballots as of Monday. Paul Mitchell, vice president of Political Data Inc., expects turnout will eventually hit 30% — ranking among the lowest in recent history.

[Harker]

8. Garvey is still a dodger. n/t

[LetMyPeopleVote]

15. I trust Speaker Emirtra Pelosi

Link to tweet

?si=T-rRCBin7aI5OlUs

Link to tweet

[SleeplessinSoCal]

16. I'm upset.

Porter has been our rep for 1 year and 2 months. I was frustrated that she opted to run for Feinstein's seat against Schiff. Feinstein had been the moderate Democrat her entire career. We all once knew that. Schiff seems like the logical successor. Then his campaign pummeled the airwaves with ads raising Garvey's profile. And that frustrated me.

On top of that Senate race is a divided race with tons of money pouring in for Porter's successor.. I see no ads for the Republican Baugh. But lots of them tearing apart the endorsed candidate Min.

It's not a good time.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California%27s_47th_congressional_district?wprov=sfla1

[deurbano]

17. And what will Porter do now? She has been a real asset in the House. Does Min seem like he has a good chance?

I was surprised Porter barely won last time, so it's worrying that someone not the incumbent is running against the same guy who lost by so little. I hope there is a big effort being made to get UCI students from other districts with less competitive races to change their registration. My daughter was an undergrad at UCI during the midterms, and since we live in SF, it would have made more sense for her to vote in your district, but she/we didn't realize the race was so close. (I just looked at the results from 2022, and I guess it didn't end up being quite as close as I thought, but still concerning.)

[SleeplessinSoCal]

18. Porter ran in our newly drawn district 47.

Before that we were in the 48th, stuck with Rohrabacher.Then the 2018 blue wave gave us Dem Harley Rouda. He lost to Michelle Steele in 2020. Then the new district and we got Porter. It was close enough.

Dave Min has been taking a pounding in some questionable tv ads. One of our local dems who has managed to win in red OC isn't supporting Min. But he defeated a pretty pretty well known Republican in 2020 to be our State Senator. Now we may have to fight like hell because that seat is in play.

Porter may want to go back to teaching. She's a single mother and I suspect she wouldn't mind being home more.

[deurbano]

22. She was a guest speaker (remotely) for my daughter's public health class at UCI, and she was very popular,

so I'm sure that would be a great option. But I meant... she has a real gift for effectively explaining issues and advocating for solutions... and the House provided a perfect forum for her needed voice. If she loses (which seems likely), I'm disappointed she won't have that forum. (Also sorry to lose Barbara Lee's voice in the House.) And it's frustrating to not only lose her valuable contribution to the House, but then have to fight to keep her seat.

[SleeplessinSoCal]

23. I'm not sure why she opted to run for the Senate.

I think none of the three anticipated a Garvey getting in, let alone leading on the polls. Very shortsighted. I've yet to see an ad for Garvey. And there have been no yard signs so far. Very different from past elections in our 26 years here.

It's just strange being in this environment of bifurcation of information. And scary.

[LauraInLA]

19. Agreed. I'm pretty sure this a House seat we will now lose.

[beaglelover]

21. There is NO way CA will elect a Republican Senator. NONE.