Winter weather chances late this week, for now, not worth hype and worry.

[elleng]

Pay attention to the forecast, but the chances for ice Friday and snow Sunday don’t seem too serious.

Our analysis of these scary-looking maps, based on experience and the weather pattern at hand, is that they probably aren’t realistic.

Ice on Friday?
Yes, the American (GFS) model has for a few days presented a scenario in which temperatures near 50 degrees Thursday evening suddenly drop below freezing Friday morning, turning rain to a hazardous sheet of ice. But consider:

1. No other model supports this extreme scenario.

2. Experience indicates such a scenario is improbable. “Usually, the cold air lags the front enough in these type of cases to spare the region from serious icing,” said Wes Junker, Capital Weather Gang’s winter weather expert.

3. This winter, the American model has repeatedly shown its bias of dropping temperatures too quickly when a cold front comes through. Remember when we were supposed to get a burst of snow Jan. 20, and it just rained? The model was one of the leading offenders in cooling temperatures too fast.'>>>

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2022/02/01/dc-winter-weather-ice-snow/?

[empedocles]

1. TY