We predict D.C.'s cherry blossoms will peak about one week early this year.
Because of mild weather in February and March, peak bloom will probably be around March 24; the recent average is March 31.
A mild February and the prospect of a mild March means Washington’s famous cherry blossoms will probably bloom early this year.
Based on our analysis of past, present and predicted weather, we’re estimating the peak bloom for the blossoms will be around March 24, or within a five-day window of March 22 and 26.
Over the last 30 years, peak bloom has averaged around March 31. If we look at the longer 100-year average, the average peak bloom date is a bit later, on April 3. The date has trended several days earlier in recent decades due to our warming climate.
March 15, 1990, marks the earliest peak bloom on record while April 18, 1958, is the latest peak. Last year, peak bloom occurred on March 28.
Peak bloom occurs when 70 percent of the cherry blossoms flower along the Tidal Basin. If our forecast holds, peak bloom will coincide with at least the first half of the National Cherry Blossom Festival, set for March 20 to April 17.
Once peak bloom is declared, the blossoms can remain on cherry trees for another week or so if it’s warm and winds are light. Abnormally cold, rainy or windy weather can strip the trees of petals within a few days.
The National Park Service will issue its own peak-bloom forecast on Tuesday at 9 a.m.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2022/02/28/cherry-blossom-peak-bloom-forecast/?