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Florida

Tony_FLADEM

(3,023 posts) Tue Oct 11, 2022, 08:47 PM Oct 2022

My District That Was Gerrymandered to Be More Republican is Tied in the Latest Poll

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My District That Was Gerrymandered to Be More Republican is Tied in the Latest Poll (Original Post) Tony_FLADEM Oct 2022 OP

GOTV for Eric Lynn! Cha Oct 2022 #1

More signs of a potentially great night for us. ColinC Oct 2022 #2

Not understanding the overwhelming disconnect with 538's most recent forecast 24601 Oct 2022 #3

Cha

(305,435 posts)

1. GOTV for Eric Lynn!

Reply to Tony_FLADEM (Original post)

Tue Oct 11, 2022, 09:15 PM

Oct 2022

ColinC

(10,702 posts)

2. More signs of a potentially great night for us.

Reply to Tony_FLADEM (Original post)

Wed Oct 12, 2022, 12:47 AM

Oct 2022

GOTV. Make sure every democratic friend and family member you know, votes. Knock on doors if you can, and get.out.the.vote.

24601

(4,017 posts)

3. Not understanding the overwhelming disconnect with 538's most recent forecast

Reply to Tony_FLADEM (Original post)

Sun Oct 23, 2022, 07:14 PM

Oct 2022

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/house/florida/13/

Updated 11:53 Am on Sunday, October 23rd

538 has three projections based upon their models:

Lite - based on polls alone: Lynn at 45.1% and Luna at 51.9% "Luna favored"

Classic - "polls, fundraising, past voting patterns and more": Lynn at 43.6% and Luna at 53.4% "Luna clearly favored"

Deluxe - "adds experts' ratings to the classic": Lynn at 42.2% and Luna at 54.8% "Luna clearly favored"

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