'Voter registration meltdown': Democrats losing edge in Miami-Dade as Republicans gain

[In It to Win It]

‘Voter registration meltdown’: Democrats losing edge in Miami-Dade as Republicans gain

Back when Florida was the nation’s premier political battleground, Democrats in the state had hundreds of thousands more registered voters than Republicans and a fairly simple formula for competing in presidential contests: run up the score in key metro areas like Miami-Dade County, and try to manage losses in the vast rural and exurban areas that stretch from the Panhandle to the Everglades.

But a statewide surge in GOP voter registration gave Republicans an edge over Democrats for the first time and foreshadowed Gov. Ron DeSantis’ 19-point victory in November. Democrats are rapidly losing their advantage in Miami-Dade, perhaps their most important market in Florida.

Just in the last four years, the number of registered Democrats in the county decreased by over 6,000 voters, and their advantage over registered Republicans was almost cut in half, dropping from a 15-point lead in August 2019 to eight in July 2023, according to a Miami Herald analysis of state voter registration data. Democrats had around 138,000 more registered voters than Republicans in Miami-Dade.

The shift has Democrats concerned about the party’s ability to stay relevant in 2024, when voters will cast ballots in the presidential election and local races. Party leaders are scrambling to make changes.

“There’s no way for Democrats to win statewide in Florida by having a voter registration meltdown in Miami-Dade County,” said Fernand Amandi, managing partner of the Miami-based political strategy and polling firm Bendixen & Amandi. “Democrats are now registering as Republicans and Republicans are out-hustling Democrats in the most important county in the state for Democrats.”

[Omnipresent]

1. Times change...

I remember back in 2000, when the presidential election boiled down to who won Florida to win.

Biden got to 306 in 2020 without needing Florida. I hope not needing Florida is a trend we can keep, considering how red it is turning.

[at140]

2. Rich people are moving to Florida

to escape state income tax and high property tax. Most rich people are republicans.

[FBaggins]

3. Can't judge how much salt to take this with

But it would not surprise me at all if deep blue voters are fleeing the state while deep red ones are flocking in.

Doesn’t mean that Biden can’t win it. But it means that if it is competitive… he’s already winning by 100+ EVs

[Turbineguy]

4. Maybe Democrats are moving out.

[SWBTATTReg]

5. Maybe trying to influence future elections by registering as republicans, to throw shade/

to tilt results?

[hildegaard28]

6. Democrats

Need a better messaging strategy in that area. Republicans are giving us a great opportunity to paint them as real Communists, something they love to accuse us of being. Ron DeSantis has said on video that he wants a state takeover of Disney. Republicans are severely limiting free speech and expression in the state, and implementing idealogical warfare on college campuses. Republicans in the state legislature just rubberstamp all of his corruption, and there's no checks on his power. It would be very easy to paint them as a bunch of Communists and scare the Cuban community back into the Democratic fold. We just need to have the right messaging and push that aggressively.

[Lunabell]

7. I guess they'll follow the GQP right into the Atlantic Ocean.

As Miami drowns due to climate change. Idiots.