538 has Hillary losing IA.

[progressoid]

It's pretty close but still.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/iowa/

Let's hope the post convention bump is significant. GOTV!!!

[emulatorloo]

1. Too early for these polls to be meaningful

[progressoid]

7. Yeah,

I went there looking for data on a poll a RWer sent to me.

http://96.127.53.23/election/

Apparently Hannity is touting this one.

I'm too tired to deal with it now.

[emulatorloo]

13. I have faith in the intelligence and patriotism of the majority of Iowa voters

[xocet]

18. There seem to be a few counterexamples;e.g., Steve King, Joni Ernst, Chuck Grassley, Terry Branstad

However, may your faith be rewarded.

[emulatorloo]

19. All I can say is Iowa most always goes blue for president.

Only exception in recent years was Bush in 2004, and that was an anomaly.

As to your counter examples, Iowa's a purple state. To generalize a little, As you may know Dems don't always come out to vote in midterms but they are generally very motivated to come out for Presidential ones.

Cheers and best regards.

[xocet]

20. I really hope that Iowans do come out in numbers to vote for Sec. Clinton.

That would be a great way to start rolling back Republican gains in the House and in the Senate.

Have a nice evening.

[still_one]

2. If there watching Fox or MSNBS, they will get a distorted picture. CNN is better

I watched on non-commercial TV. Cannot stand the bubble heads who don't know sqwat

[elleng]

11. and C-Span is best.

[emulatorloo]

14. MSNBC was good tonight

[rjsquirrel]

3. What's the point?

Means nothing right now. Let this week finish.

Seriously, back to worrying about virtually tied state polls tonight?

[progressoid]

4. I hate to even see this in my state.

That we've sunk to this level is depressing

[rjsquirrel]

6. It's moot after this week

There will be a bounce.

Iowa has been tight all along. We don't need it if we win Virginia and Florida. And we will.

Don't worry. Vote.

[still_one]

8. That is the most important thing. I am also believe that Iowa will be blue

[rjsquirrel]

9. Take Heart!

Organize.

[still_one]

10. I am a Californian now, but was born in Iowa, and as long as we GOTV, we will win, as you said

[rjsquirrel]

12. Let polls roll off you

You can't change them; they are meaningless individually; trends matter more than momentary results; the margins of error is such that either a lead or a deficit needs to be tempered by the realization that it could be off 3-4 points in either direction for either or both candidates; state polls are both more variable and generally lower in quality and accuracy and less frequent; all likely voter models are guesses and predictions; and it's far too early for polls to be meaningfully predictive.


We know Trump can win. We know it's close. That's all that we need to know to push harder. There will be surprises and scares and trash talk and bad polls and good ones.

Watch next week's national polls from the major pollsters. If this convention doesn't earn a substantial bounce for Hillary Ill be surprised.

Trump is his own worst enemy. Remember there's still debates to come and he is completely overmatched by Hillary.

[still_one]

15. I agree.

[still_one]

5. Also the most recent poll in that group was from July 13-15. There is no useful point

[MFM008]

16. we are right in the middle of the convention

I want to see polls next week.

[Onyrleft]

17. There will also be debates.

Unless Hillary shows up to the debates on PCP, that should be the end of Drumpf.