AP calls Dem Senate primary for Alsobrooks.

[spooky3]

Wow, I think I read that her opponent spent $62 million in advertising. But she had a lot of high profile endorsements, including Gov. Wes Moore and Rep. Jamie Raskin.

Haley got about 20% of the Repub vote.

https://www.wbaltv.com/article/primary-election-day-live-updates-polling-locations-maryland/60787121

[elleng]

1. 177,231 votes, 52.6%

Larry Hogan
GOP
113,396 62.0%

[kelly1mm]

2. So the Senate match-up is set with Hogan v. Alsobrooks. This has ramifications outside

of Maryland. First, Hogan has name recognition and is/was reasonably popular in this very Democratic leaning state. He can win here although I think he is still an underdog. What it is going to take to beat him is money for ads to tie Hogan to the national republican party. You can't really tie him to Trump as he has always been a vocal critic of Trump. I can see 100M in ad spending needed to beat Hogan.

Second, Trone, the other main Democrat Senate candidate is the multi-millionaire owner of Total Wine and More and has already spent millions of his own money to get his congressional seat and millions in this primary. He had previously said he would spend whatever he needed to win the Senate seat.

Third, assuming Trone closes his wallet, those 100M are going to need to be spent by the DSCC in Maryland to hold this seat, and that is 100M not available to them for helping in OH, MT and AZ.

Not that Alsobrooks is not a great choice, just a great choice that can't self fund her campaign .....

[spooky3]

4. Some of her ads have already tied Hogan to the national GOP in the sense

that he would be another GOP vote in the Senate, regardless of how moderate he may seem or may have been in the past. I think this is very effective. His involvement with the "No Labels" group can also be used against him. MD voters are well-educated about these dynamics and I think he's vulnerable. IMHO, it is concerning that polls to date showed that Trone, but not Alsobrooks, would beat Hogan in the general but (a) at that point, she really had not advertised much, whereas Trone is a well known Rep., and (b) we all know about the reliability of polls this far out before the election.

FWIW: perennial nutcase candidate Ficker got 30% of the GOP vote. That's probably the MAGA contingent - his ads proudly proclaimed he was a Trumper -- but it's bigger than I would have guessed.

https://www.nbcwashington.com/decision-2024/eyes-turn-to-maryland-senate-race-results-as-polls-close-on-primary-night/3616176/

Just a NoVirginian here, with a lot of interest in MD, and we see all the TV ads, but obviously don't know as much as MD DUers.

Go Alsobrooks!

[kelly1mm]

5. You need to remember that Hogan was elected statewide twice in MD and left with high

approval ratings. He can't really be tied to Trump but he can be tied (correctly) to the Senate GOP as another vote for McConnell as majority leader. This is going to cost $$$$$$. Alsobrooks can't self fund like Trone was going to so those $$$$$$ are going to come from doners/DSCC. Those DSCC dollars are limited and every $ to MD is a $ not available to AZ, MT, OH etc .....

An additional MD consideration is the antagonism/animosity between Baltimore and the DC suburbs. Alsobrooks is from PG county so very much a creature of the DC burbs ....

[spooky3]

6. I don't need to remember. We will see what happens. Nt

[kelly1mm]

7. Ok, don't remember then and of course we will see what happens. NT

[elleng]

8. Interesting; thanks.

Also, PG, while not necessarily tied closely with Baltimore, is also not such a 'creature' of the DC burbs.

I'm interested to see Montgomery County numbers for Trone (vs Alsobrooks,) and Western MD. LOTS to look for/be aware and wary of, imo.

CAN'T ignore repugs' more than keen interest in the Senate majority.; they worked hard to get Hogan to run.

[appmanga]

3. I feel good our friends in Maryland...

...will finish the job and elect her in November. Marylanders seem to understand that a a Hogan in the Senate is another Republican who will vote with Republicans against the will of the people and women in particular.

[elleng]

9. As much as 'Marylanders seem to understand,' it may not be enough to surpass repugs' big $$$$$;

There is reason for concern, imo.