Jon Ralston's Early Voting Update 10/23/24
The Clark firewall is at 5,000, or just 2.5 points in a place where Dems have a nearly 7 percent registration edge.
In Washoe, the swing urban county, Rs have a 4 point lead, just above their registration advantage.
Nearly 400,000 people have cast ballots, or just under 20 percent of registered voters. If turnout is 1.4 million out of the 2 million registered voters, that means almost 30 percent of the vote is in.
There is no good news in these numbers for Dems, who are basing their hopes on a deluge of mail ballots coming in during the final days and perhaps the day or two after the election (They can be counted for four days after Nov. 5.) and a very favorable split among indies in urban Nevada.
There are about 100,000 non-major party voters in the mix, or 12 percent of their total – that’s substantially lower than the turnout by both major parties and part of the reason I think we should discount most Nevada polls. No one knows how they will break, although Dems are optimistic because they skew young, as Andy Bloch has pointed out. But even if Kamala Harris has a 10-point lead among indies in the current makeup of the electorate, if Trump is holding his base, he is ahead by 6,000 votes or so. Not a lot, but a lead nevertheless.
https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-2024