Polling: Merkley and Kitzhaber (updated)

[davidpdx]

Last edited Sun Sep 28, 2014, 07:34 AM - Edit history (1)

A new SurveyUSA poll has Merkley up 52 to 32 over Wehby and Kitzhaber up 50 to 38 over Richardson.

Marijuana legalization is up 44-40 with 16% undecided.

[classof56]

1. Heartening news on this Friday afternoon.

Hope the numbers hold!

[cascadiance]

2. Wehby, the stalker, and Richardson, the champion of guns for teachers in schools, are losers!

.... and should be pushed aside by Merkley and Kitzhaber!

[LWolf]

3. I've had to block Richardson

from emailing me at work (school email) twice now. I assume I'm not the only teacher he's hit; I sure never invited his attention, lol.

[quakerboy]

4. I think we are probably going to be ok on the statewide elections

But the districts are going to be very important. Can we hang on to what we've got in the state senate and house?

I encourage you all to talk to a rep and go out canvassing, or do something active to participate. Its projected to be a really low turnout, and anything we can do to raise the numbers is going to make a big difference.

The initiatives will be important as well. If we can get MJ passed with democratic support, that will help solidify our hold on the younger generation. Giving people changes they actually want will go a long way in convincing them its worth taking the time to vote.

And this open primary thing is a mess. Id love to see us do a semi-open primary (ie chose any party on the ballot and then vote for your choice in their primary) or (in my dreams) an instant run off. But the complete open primary is a mess that will lead to manipulation of the system.

[davidpdx]

5. I think so too

I'm frankly at odds what to do about voting for Kurt Schrader as I'm the 5th District. I live overseas and the only reason I'm registered there is that is where I physically get my mail.

[cascadiance]

6. Remind those that don't vote in this election that it will screw them if they DON'T...

... and feel that they only need to vote in presidential election years.

If they don't vote in this election, and only vote in November in presidential years, they might wake up only having two choices for each office every November election (some having two from the same party running against each other), if this open primary initiative passes. Big money is trying to take advantage of lower turnout in this election to control who votes to get more people to vote for them to vote to enable elections making the big choices being the primaries which will have even lower turnout and be more controlled by them. California and third parties in California are already regretting their moves to top two primaries.

Also, we need to find ways to get young people out as they are the ones that are typically no shows in off years. Ben Unger, who's leaving his legislative seat after this session to take over "Our Oregon" understands this and is looking for ways to boost turnout in this election to help with getting the right outcomes on these propositions. Even though normally we have very high voter participation rates in most vote by mail elections, in off years, we only get 40% turnouts from young people. Young people need to feel it important to participate for legalizing marijuana and labeling of GMO foods. I have some ideas on helping the former which I might talk about more in the coming weeks. PM me if you want more on that.

[0rganism]

7. update: a quick check of the RCP averages...

has Kitzhaber up 10, Merkely up 14. Oregon is a blue state getting blue-er. Let's hope the RNC and the Koch bros waste lots of money here, they used to piss me off but lately when i see one of their lying screeds on TV i just laugh.

[davidpdx]

8. Thanks for the update

I had just been looking at it myself. It looks like no new polling since the beginning of the month. My guess is we'll see some new polls within the next two weeks or so.

I think the RNC has given up on Wehby (rightfully so). Richardson is not much of a candidate either.

The only seat I see having any chance of being close is CD 5-Schrader. I'm in his district and really don't like him at all.

[cascadiance]

9. The Kochs, etc. might not give up yet on Wehby... Newer conservative poll is closer...

... than the others that just came out. Not sure it's to be trusted though.

http://www.oregonlive.com/mapes/index.ssf/2014/09/merkley-wehby_roundup_another.html

Interesting how her campaign continues to be mismanaged and has plagiarists working for her too (or at least they used to be working for her anyway)...

I think the biggest thing we should be helping with this Fall is to make sure that the top 2 primary proposition #90 gets voted down. Californians and Washingtonians have regretted voting that in to their states, and I think we will too if we let that happen. A lot of Koch brothers, etc. money looks to have shifted from losing candidates like Wehby and Richardson in to getting this prop passed to be present in 2016 election.

[davidpdx]

10. Just saw that

I don't see how Merkley could lose by anything less than 10 points. The race for governor will be much closer.

[cascadiance]

11. Yes, and you wonder why Kitzhaber is supporting prop 90 when the party and most others aren't...

... as well as Richardson. I'm guessing they're both getting nervous about appealing to the independent voters to keep the margin in their favor.

The Dems should be emphasizing and publicizing recent stories like this one about a teacher shooting herself in school, to question Richardson's judgement earlier when he was a fierce and leading advocate in Oregon to arming teachers after Clackamas and Sandy Hook shootings.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2014/09/11/teacher-accidental-shooting/15452271/

[davidpdx]

12. I think Kitzhaber is dead wrong on M90

As much as I like him, I would have rather seen him step aside and get someone else in there. We need to be ready with new talent in 2018.

[davidpdx]

13. Bump

[0rganism]

14. another update: Kitz up 12, Merkely up 13

http://www.electionprojection.com/2014-elections/oregon-governor-election.php
http://www.electionprojection.com/2014-elections/oregon-senate-election.php

Please republicans, spend more money in Oregon.