The seven political states of Pennsylvania

[mahatmakanejeeves]

The Trailer Analysis

The seven political states of Pennsylvania

Democrats turn out big votes in the commonwealth’s urban centers, but regions that were red before 2016 have gotten redder.

Story by David Weigel | Map by Lauren Tierney

More from this series: Michigan | Wisconsin | North Carolina | Florida

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[Freedomofspeech]

1. I have lived in SW PA my whole life...

It has been a nightmare watching our area go from blue to red. Between the Catholics who have Pro Life Pro Trump signs in their yards and the hillbillies with trump's orange face superimposed on the American flag....gawd it is awful living here. We have Pittsburgh in the West, Philadelphia in the East and Alabama everywhere else.

[modrepub]

2. Pretty Good Analysis

I wouldn't put the Lehigh Valley in with the NE; it's got more ties to Philadelphia than Scranton and its now large enough folks from the NE are commuting into that area for work more so than reverse.

Two additional points. The map doesn't recognize that a lot of the areas that supported Trump are experiencing population declines so there is less to work with in 2020 than in 2016. The second major division is between those areas dependent on blue collar manufacturing type jobs and more white collar, entertainment, financial, health care type employment. The former is more concentrated in SE portions of the state (Philly suburbs/202 corridor) while the latter is probably predominant over most of the rest of the state. I think the blue collar types are more aligned with Trump's message of "America First" while the latter isn't subject to those boogiemen or maybe less so outside H1-B issues. Trade is a very tricky policy that Trump and most Americans do not fully understand; tariffs on manufacturing leads to reprisals that can hurt other manufactures and farming interests. Economics can be exploited by folks like Trump, and IMO that's where his strength largely comes from (other than he's mean to the "elites" his folks seem to hate with a passion).

It will be a close fight for PA's EVs. In the end it will probably boil down to how well Biden does in the NE and how many folks in the suburban areas in the SE part of the state, who are more moderate on social issues, buy into the President's rhetoric on lawless city folk invading their neighborhoods.

[DeminPennswoods]

3. It is, but why journalists, analysts,

Dems in general refuse to believe that Clinton lost because lots of people did not like her and would not vote for her. The total of votes for 3rd party candidates was more than enough to win her the state.

Josh Shapiro, elected as Atty Genl, won 14 counties. Hillary won 11 counties. Had she just matched Shapiro, she'd have won the state. It shows the level of ticket-splitting or 3rd party voting or undervoting (not voting for president) there was in 2016.

[DeminPennswoods]

4. Report from my corner of PA

I live in one of NBC's "bellweather" counties (Beaver), which is surprising since it's pretty consistently been won by the GOP for many years now.

Anyway, I have already gotten 3 applications to vote by absentee ballot, 1 of which was from Beaver county Dem party, and a post-card from the state telling me how easy it is now to vote by absentee ballot.I will be voting in person though.

I've gotten 3 phone calls from Dem organizations asking me if I planned to vote and who I was planning to vote for. They all were happy to hear "Biden and all Dems on the ballot". I was also polled yesterday, primarily about Lamb/Parnell, but also asking about Biden/Trump.

And it's only early September.

I expected to see Trump/Pence signs and flags as it's just how my area is, but I was surprised to see Biden signs on lawns of homes in the more affluent areas that I didn't expect. Fwiw, I still haven't seen my neighbors put their Trump sign up their yard as they had in 2016. Interestingly, I've seen a fair number of signs up for the Dem running for state house where the voters haven't been especially engaged. The Dem is AfAm so that might help Biden up ballot if it gigs AfAm turnout.